Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

CFS Model for next week:

 

A whiteout?

[johnholmes]

18 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

 

I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

[ChannelThunder]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

Even the worst summers for storms have some kind of decent plume at some point. July 15th - 31st being the most likely time for it.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Lance M

[johnholmes]

Wednesday 10 June for an update on the 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec-gfs both look fairly similar in position of troughing and ridging with the uk sandwiched between, rather more influenced by the troughing than the ridging perhaps? Some difference in orientation of the trough.

Noaa is also not too different in the overall pattern around the uk.

Not the major pattern change that looked probable a few days ago, perhaps a near miss! Air still mostly sourced, as a mean, off the atlantic but modified most days by a s’ly furn just prior to reaching the uk. Faily changeable I would think with no current signal for any prolonged dry or hot weather but on the muggy side at times. For eastern areas the actual low level flow will be crucial for temperature levels

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by johnholmes
spelling

[Rocheydub]

34 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

CFS Model for next week:

 

??

[Djdazzle]

43 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

 

I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

I recalls that similar things were said last year.

[mb018538]

43 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

Probably my biggest peeve on this forum. People writing off entire seasons a week in. Happens all the time, and is just ridiculous.

[mb018538]

We are approaching a low point in the falling of AAM - which ties in with the more unsettled regime of June thus far. CFS shows a steady recovery now well into July, which would usually favour an improvement. One to watch.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM completes a disappointing set. Warmer air never makes it, trough closer, and Atlantic starting to push through. More showers around too, especially further n and W.

Although there will be lots of local variations for the next few days, as a broad brush statement the UK now looks set to miss out - just - on what could have been a very warm period, with low pressure to the SW just about close enough to keep things unsettled. It isn't a worst case scenario, except maybe in Cornwall & Devon, which would have been to have the trough sat on top of us for 6 days, leading to the summer nightmare of continual rain and a chill in the air. We're still far enough away from the centre of the low to allow at least a little warmer air from the south/east to get into our circulation. So I think there will be some good, warm weather around (low 20Cs I'd expect), but never too far from trouble. Perhaps a 6 out of 10 weekend, if we're scoring it! Some areas in Scotland may have a much better weekend than south of the border.

Signs continue to look reasonable positive for finer weather between D7 and D14, especially further S and E - many ECM ensembles this morning have a fresh ridge of the Azores High towards the UK - but not conclusive enough at this point.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Man With Beard

[danm]

39 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I recalls that similar things were said last year.

Indeed. We had a terrible June, and then broke the all time temperature record in July. 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Although there will be lots of local variations for the next few days, as a broad brush statement the UK now looks set to miss out - just - on what could have been a very warm period, with low pressure to the SW just about close enough to keep things unsettled. It isn't a worst case scenario, except maybe in Cornwall & Devon, which would have been to have the trough sat on top of us for 6 days, leading to the summer nightmare of continual rain and a chill in the air. We're still far enough away from the centre of the low to allow at least a little warmer air from the south/east to get into our circulation. So I think there will be some good, warm weather around (low 20Cs I'd expect), but never too far from trouble. Perhaps a 6 out of 10 weekend, if we're scoring it! Some areas in Scotland may have a much better weekend than south of the border.

Signs continue to look reasonable positive for finer weather between D7 and D14, especially further S and E - many ECM ensembles this morning have a fresh ridge of the Azores High towards the UK - but not conclusive enough at this point.

Unfortunately this morning the stars haven’t aligned....look at this water transport chart. Even on Tuesday the air is soaked with moisture, so it doesn’t look dry at all now. Most of Western and Central Europe actually looks quite wet in the foreseeable:

[Leo97t]

Trough is much closer to the UK earlier on. Murphys law rules our weather as usual. I have to say we have been very unlucky in the last few weeks and it doesn't look like our luck is improving

[sheikhy]

Surprised no comment on the gfs!!!actually take that back i am NOT surprised as its the worst model out of the top 3!!anyway just for the heck of commenting on gfs 06z its an absolute beauty at 144 hours with a strong high and heat across the uk!!although we know its probably wrong at just 48 hours out

[Leo97t]

the 06z builds in a high by 99 hours - is it gonna be wrong within this period - absolutely !

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Just caught up with the ECM:

 

I would say the outlook is...alright? I had very high hopes for up here a few days ago (blue sky galore and temperatures in the mid-twenties) but that has now been watered down to the high teens/low twenties for this weekend with the risk of thundery downpours. (I will bank that though!)

Heatwave about to commence in many parts of Norway/Sweden/Finland for seven to ten days at least on current output - Oslo would be a good place to be! 

So at the moment no flaming June or proper sustained heat for the UK and Ireland - decent short term outlook though for the majority with respectable temperatures and plenty of convective weather on offer. 

Only ten days into Meteorological Summer...plenty of time for the good stuff to arrive! (Plumes, 30C + days, severe thunderstorms ect ect - if you are a fan of that type of weather of course!) 

All the best to you all.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Guest]

2 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

 

I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

I bow to your crystal ball gazing abilities. One of the most ridiculous posts of recent days.

The 00z output wasn't great but I don't think anything particularly settled was on the cards anyway. Either way, one set of dodgy operationals isn't worth the histrionics from some. Let's see how the 6z and the 12z sets compare this afternoon/evening  

[Zak M]

2 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

 

I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

We are only ten days into meteorological summer and you're writing it all off?!

[Methuselah]

Dire forecast from today's GFS 06Z: single-figure temps and endless torrential rain...Oh, hang on, make that 25C with copious amounts of strong June sunshine...Easy mistake to make!

    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Still nothing to nasty lurking in the extended ECM mean out to June 25th..pressure nudging 1020mb and the mean temperature around 8.5c. So it could be a lot worse. 

[mb018538]

Met office warning for rain now out for the SW England and SW Wales....50-70mm possible in a few places in the next day.

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Dire forecast from today's GFS 06Z: single-figure temps and endless torrential rain...Oh, hang on, make that 25C with copious amounts of strong June sunshine...Easy mistake to make!

    

It does look good. Hard to give it more credence than ECM/UKMO, but hopefully this will be one of those times the GFS has seen something the ECM/UKMO has not. To be fair, the UKMO didn't look too different to this GFS yesterday.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Dire forecast from today's GFS 06Z: single-figure temps and endless torrential rain...Oh, hang on, make that 25C with copious amounts of strong June sunshine...Easy mistake to make!

    

Only last week, even in the past few days though when it was predicting poor weather it was to be ignored (even scraped was the call from some) as was only the 4th best model. So is GFS only the 4th best model at predicting bad weather? This is generalization, not a question solely directed at yourself. The output is undeniable, looks a million times better than some of the other output from this morning but there lies the problem I guess, it's not really the form pony. 

[Singularity]

'Dance of the weekend lows' continues to be a forecasting headache for the weekend, I see. ECM might well have led the way on the true path where the older low lifts out northward and sets up a standoff between westerlies and easterlies for a few days - but it's not a done deal yet.

For (an extreme) example, ICON has been steadfast on the western low never getting involved at all. It's so far from all the other models! Imagine if it had this nailed... that'd be kind of hilarious - and hugely embarrassing for the likes of ECM, UKMO and GFS .

 

 

It appears it would actually be a good outcome for those seeking the unusual 'thundery easterly' setup as opposed to something very 'meh' (not bad for most, just... completely unremarkable).

As it is, I'm hesitant to expect anything in particular beyond Saturday - and even that day has much uncertainty on just how close-by the low is positioned and the strength of the circulation around it. Big implications for how much instability can be increased via surface heating.

[Leo97t]

worryingly the net weather forecast is perfectly inline with the BBC - I wonder if they know something we don't 

[Man With Beard]

GFS D6 solution only backed by 20% of ECM ensembles 

No clusters after D9, which doesn't inspire confidence. Ridge still NE, trough still chipping away at the west - in the balance but quite possible that warm/dry weather may hang on.

Still an improving picture, by D12 heights are rising from the SW too.

I've checked the individual ensembles and probably 60% of runs look like this; other runs have more influence from the NW trough, and a few have a new Euro trough.