Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T216:

This looks so messy that I'm inclined to put it in the bin now....we all know that anything beyond T120 needs to be regarded as speculation!

I would definitely agree with that.  Looking at both the GFS and ECM, they just sort of meander around after 144 so there's clearly no strong signal being picked up outside of 5 days or so.  

[mb018538]

 

Day 9 - no isobars over the UK....10c line halfway up the country. Warm and humid with no wind. Best conditions in the SE.

[Zak M]

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’m guessing 216-240 is going to be the classic NW/SE divide 

You're correct...

12c isotherm in the S while it looks to be a bit more unsettled in the north.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Zak M

[northwestsnow]

EC looks warm and muggy with surely the chance of storms...

As others have noted ,a NW/SE split developing later with temps climbing across the South ...

The trough of despair is causing all sorts of headaches for the models, a shift of a hundred miles could be the difference between supressed temps and heavy rain, or alternatively, warm and humid ..

Edited June 8, 2020 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

By day 10 we get uppers of 14 into the SE corner so i would imagine 27/28 Degrees likely.

Caveat being its a day 10 chart of course...

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

By day 10 we get uppers of 14 into the SE corner so i would imagine 27/28 Degrees likely.

Caveat being its a day 10 chart of course...

ECM 12z raw charts show 28c Wednesday and 30c Thursday in the London area. Usually 1-2c undercooked. I think with uppers that high we’d likely see the first 30c of the year as it’s now mid June!  

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM 12z raw charts show 28c Wednesday and 30c Thursday in the London area. Usually 1-2c undercooked. I think with uppers that high we’d likely see the first 30c of the year as it’s now mid June!  

Yes thats hot, i assumed there would be some clouds around keeping a lid on the temperatures but i guess EC not seeing much cloud in the SE...

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

39 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T216:

This looks so messy that I'm inclined to put it in the bin now....we all know that anything beyond T120 needs to be regarded as speculation!

I would put the current charts  for the next few days in the bin, but certainly not those charts. Conditions could get close to 30c with decent sunny spells in more S/SE locations, and that's a hell of a better situation than this trough situation we have to contend with this week.. That's assuming all this comes off of course. 

Edit.. @Mike Poole non of the runs are making much sense at the moment mate.. Anything is possible.. Let's see what the mean as to say about that one..

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes thats hot, i assumed there would be some clouds around keeping a lid on the temperatures but i guess EC not seeing much cloud in the SE...

 

Looks that way @northwestsnow

 

ECM ppn totals out to day 10 show the sw and Wales particularly badly hit - close to 100mm in places. By contrast the E/SE don’t really see any additional rain from day 6-10, indicating drier and warm/hot weather in the slack warm airflow.

[Zak M]

So, just a summary from the 12z ECM:

It's showing a brief warm up in the upcoming weekend except for the SW, where a low looks to be bringing outbreaks of rain there. 

Into next week it's showing the south starting to warm up even more as we gain some heat from France and Spain. I reckon the high-twenties will be possible in the south along with the 12c isothern over the majority of England and the 14c isotherm clipping the SE. With the low to our NW, thunderstorms could be possible.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Zak M

[stodge]

Evening all

An uninspiring day here in East London and the chill of the weekend remains - the forecast looks warmer and wetter though any storm will have to go some to beat Saturday afternoon's spectacular.

Moving on through the middle of the month, what might the second half of June hold?

T+192 tonight from the usual suspects and the 12Z suite: GEM, GFS Control, GFS OP, ECM and JMA

This takes us to next Tuesday, the first day of Royal Ascot.

Still plenty of heights to the north and north east and the Azores HP not really an influence. ECM has moved the cut off LP further to the south alloowing weak heights over SE England and the Low Countries but the main pattern seems to be to keep pressure lower over or just to the south of the British Isles. GEM puts the shallow LP right over England while Control links the trough over the British Isles back to the icelandic LP.

A slack pattern so warm enough for most and perhaps humid with the continuing risk of showers or storms for southern areas while haar affects eastern counties leaving the best weather for north western areas.

Moving on and both GEM and ECM bring LP in much closer to the British Isles by the Thursday suggesting any settled conditions will be transient with further rain for many.

Further ahead still, GFS OP maintains the overall pattern with the trough negatively aligned keeping the Azores HP of no value and suggesting further LP development SE from Iceland into Europe. Control keeps things pretty much the same as well though with the fascinating evolution of developing the LP in central Europe and sending that NW toward the British Isles forcing the Atlantic LP back west and replacing it with a warm NE'ly which you don't see every day.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, MATT said:

I would put the current charts  for the next few days in the bin, but certainly not those charts. Conditions could get close to 30c with decent sunny spells in more S/SE locations, and that's a hell of a better situation than this trough situation we have to contend with this week.. That's assuming all this comes off of course. 

The charts are in the bin, not because they aren't nice, Matt, but because they aren't going to happen!   This run went wrong long before this!!

I am not saying heat or thunderstorms are not possible at this time, actually both are very possible,  just that the exact synoptics at the end of ECM are implausible, in my view. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

I don’t like how ECM ends but let’s not go there

Much warmer midweek period to this one. Quite a changeable June this seems to be shaping up to be.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

ECM very similar to the UKMO

Don't know about anyone else but I'm getting a headache trying to track such a small low pressure near to the UK! 

I can't really take anything beyond T144 too seriously for the UK atm - can't predict such small low pressures with little global forcing. Big picture around the UK looks set, our small picture, such a variety of weather possible. Still hoping the trough will clear sufficiently even by Friday (not a forecast!)

[sheikhy]

Dunno what to say about ecm!!kinda boring to be fair!gone is the torrential rain from ecm but also not as hot until 192 hours!!!main positive for me its miles drier for me in the midlands compared to the monsoon it was forecasting the other day!!also its looking comfortable with temps in the low 20s until days 8 to 10 when they climb mid 20s and above for england!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm pretty pleased with the mean.. And temperatures look to stay warm throughout.

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean, here T144:

Looks sufficient margin on the mean low centre to give us some wriggle room.  

And that is as far as we can go, the rest is just a smeared out mess of uncertainty, T192:

T240:

Don't know!  

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM mean looks good from 144 folks,and it's a's up from me

850's and pressure,nae bad although there is quiet a spread on that pressure chart.

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[damianslaw]

Mmmm as others have said no real clarity how things may pan out as we move through the middle of the month. In the short term, we have large uncertainty, where will the trough dropping through the UK position itself, how strong will low heights become and where will the central core of these be.

If this was mid winter and you like snow, then the synoptical evolution Wed- Friday is a dream, a frontal system pepping up as it moves through the UK under cold uppers bringing widespread snow, then a long long fetch NE snow showers galore, trough features embedded and a long drawn easterly - air source east of the Urals, alas I'm getting carried away and it is June not January more is the pity..

Models suggesting a slack humid airstream enveloping the UK over the weekend and into the following weekend, showers, thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere, lots of cloud away from the north and north west as well, muggy conditions. Not very inspiring, rather have a dry sunny day high teens, than a cloudy muggy feel with mid 20's temps.

Longer term - no sign the azores high coming our way anytime soon, this leaves the UK exposed a negatively aligned atlantic trough scenario, further low pressure sneaking into the UK, could end up cyclonic.

Interesting charts from a weather enthusiast who prefers a non traditional westerly airstream, continuing the theme since mid March.

[Methuselah]

Well, should the modelled warmth and humidity actually happen (surely, it can't all go wrong, from here!) it'll make for some wonderfully verdant plant-growth? And, as another aside, the buddleia in my garden started flowering on June 2nd!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just a quick one from me regarding the mean.. The extended out to day 14 looks pretty good... Its staying around 1020mb..so certainly not unsettled.. Anyhow I have a migraine so that's me done.. Tek care all..

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Gordon Webb]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmmm as others have said no real clarity how things may pan out as we move through the middle of the month. In the short term, we have large uncertainty, where will the trough dropping through the UK position itself, how strong will low heights become and where will the central core of these be.

If this was mid winter and you like snow, then the synoptical evolution Wed- Friday is a dream, a frontal system pepping up as it moves through the UK under cold uppers bringing widespread snow, then a long long fetch NE snow showers galore, trough features embedded and a long drawn easterly - air source east of the Urals, alas I'm getting carried away and it is June not January more is the pity..

Models suggesting a slack humid airstream enveloping the UK over the weekend and into the following weekend, showers, thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere, lots of cloud away from the north and north west as well, muggy conditions. Not very inspiring, rather have a dry sunny day high teens, than a cloudy muggy feel with mid 20's temps.

Longer term - no sign the azores high coming our way anytime soon, this leaves the UK exposed a negatively aligned atlantic trough scenario, further low pressure sneaking into the UK, could end up cyclonic.

Interesting charts from a weather enthusiast who prefers a non traditional westerly airstream, continuing the theme since mid March.

Ain't it typical the Scots are told to stay at home in potentially the best of the weather but it good old England we can go out and get soaked to our hearts content , at least those worried about crowded beaches might have less to worry about

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Lovely GFS seems to be rolling & looks like a warm and humid weekend followed by a series of warmer days as LP hovers around the SW off Cornwall. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Zak M]

18z GEFS p6 looks like a stunner, FI of course but it's showing the highest temp being 30c. And look at the night as well, 26c in some places at midnight?! You're kidding  p14 is a good perturbation also. Enjoy the rest of your night/morning all, I'm off to bed...

                  

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

3 hours ago, MATT said:

Just a quick one from me regarding the mean.. The extended out to day 14 looks pretty good... Its staying around 1020mb..so certainly not unsettled.. Anyhow I have a migraine so that's me done.. Tek care all..

I get them too. Take care