Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well I'm pretty sure the GFS is having its mood swings again because on the previous run it was showing a low nearby bringing rain to most of the country... on the current run (12z) it hasn't got any of that at all and has most of the country being settled with temperatures widely in the mid-twenties... I expect it to change in the previous run though! 

      

Not to nit-pick but the chart you show is hardly wide Spread mid 20’s when there’s only a closed 24c isotherm around Greater London. 

[Zak M]

Just now, Alderc said:

Not to nit-pick but the chart you show is hardly wide Spread mid 20’s when there’s only a closed 24c isotherm around Greater London. 

Lmao. I just realised that I posted the wrong chart!

It says 2pm though. The peak of the temperatures are usually at 4pm, and we all know that the GFS underestimates temperatures by a couple of degrees. Look at the 12z GFS on Netweather for example at 3pm on the 17 June.

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not to nit-pick but the chart you show is hardly wide Spread mid 20’s when there’s only a closed 24c isotherm around Greater London. 

Well, I'm assuming they are factoring in the GFS under estimation of temperatures.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Well, I'm assuming they are factoring in the GFS under estimation of temperatures.

Yup. We’ve seen time and time again already this year they have been 2-5c below actual maxima recorded. 20c has often resulted in 22-25c

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

Can the Azores and Scandi highs link up over England and Wales . I doubt it 

Dont take this the wrong way but why do you keep Quoting your own posts??

C.S

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T120:

The others at same time:

I think ECM more likely than some of the others to pull the low back west later here.  Not sure though.  We will see...

[Methuselah]

At least the GFS 12Z op is not an outlier, merely warmer than the mean; but then it's always going to either warmer or cooler than the average:

    

    

And the 2m temperatures really are a problem; they are way to low...?

NH profiles look OK:    

                                     

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM at 144,going to be good from here me thinks.

 

[mb018538]

ecm 144 disappointing tonight. No trough clearance, so expect more ppn.

[Weathizard]

ECM very similar to the UKMO

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ECM at 144,going to be good from here me thinks.

 

 

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ecm 144 disappointing tonight. No trough clearance, so expect more ppn.

bottom one I'd say definitely looks showery and not as good as earlier runs

[WxHerts]

'Dissapointing', 'very wet and unsettled'..what am I reading?! Or more importantly, what are you lot viewing? *Could* be a couple of wet days, but after that we look to be opening the doors to warmth, humidity and storms..what's not to like?

[Zak M]

Looks like warmth could be coming from the south at 168

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168 draws up a flow from the south.

Can those greens pull back west to take full advantage?

[mb018538]

Just now, bradleywx said:

'Dissapointing', 'very wet and unsettled'..what am I reading?! Or more importantly, what are you lot viewing? *Could* be a couple of wet days, but after that we look to be opening the doors to warmth, humidity and storms..what's not to like?

If the warmth follows at day 7-10, all good! Just looks a bit wetter until then. ECM ppn charts show 50mm+ In the next 6 days across the SW and Wales. I’d say this is looking more and more likely as we nail down the low position.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Zak M said:

Looks like warmth could be coming from the south at 168

That's why i said from 144 that it'd look good but it's poles apart from this mornings run so i am not commenting much.

[Weathizard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 draws up a flow from the south.

Can those greens pull back west to take full advantage?

Very messy, could end up with a trough stalled over us from this.

[Daniel*]

Weird to see MOD thread this active in summer, anywho less clearance from trough on this run in medium range. Accumulated rainfall up to Sunday comparison 00z (left). Interesting warmest flow drags up quite a lot of moisture for E Scotland has an atmospheric river look to it. 

[WxHerts]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If the warmth follows at day 7-10, all good! Just looks a bit wetter until then. ECM ppn charts show 50mm+ In the next 6 days across the SW and Wales. I’d say this is looking more and more likely as we nail down the low position.

Fair enough, but a lot of the time in this country it's no pain no gain - if we have to endure a couple of washout type days to get a decent shot at some proper warmth/storms then I'm 100% all for it

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Very messy, could end up with a trough stalled over us from this.

T192.  We avoid that, fortunately!   But it is all starting to look a little slack:

Edited June 8, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Zak M]

192

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm smelling the coffee perhaps.. Or something stronger like a latte... Come to papa...

Looks to be staying warm and perhaps a reversal to current set up, with the S/SE becoming more settled and much warmer. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[mb018538]

ECM looks decent at day 7/8, but your traditional nw/se split has developed. Drier and warmer in the se closer to the high, more rain around further nw.

[Weathizard]

I’m guessing 216-240 is going to be the classic NW/SE divide 

[Mike Poole]

T216:

This looks so messy that I'm inclined to put it in the bin now....we all know that anything beyond T120 needs to be regarded as speculation!