Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Allseasons-Si]

216 goes trigger happy i would of thought with some humdingers

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lovely EC this evening,can see why Exeter are now speaking warm or very warm...

Hoping for some big storms too..

This one will probably be a ‘settled’ outlier - even the top ensemble members didn’t go above about 1019mb on the 00z, this one goes above 1020mb. I think the warmth will come in regardless.

[Mike Poole]

T216:

Chalk and cheese now, shortwave on ECM but detail, and will only advect more heat. 

[stodge]

Evening all

We seem to have some new models (or versions thereof) in the mix so let's see how they go.

With ECM still rolling out let's see where we are at T+192 on the 12Z suite:

The suspects tonght are GFS Control, GFS OP, GEM, JMA and ECM

A bit of a mixed bag thought all have heights to the north or north-east and pressure low to the SW. GEM, as it often does, deepens the LP into quite a significant feature for the time of year but it's held far enough west to allow a warm SW'ly flow over the British Isles. JMA keeps the LP closer so an unsettled SE'ly flow with rain or showers especially for the south and west.

GFS OP also has a small LP to the SW while Control has a broader but shallower trough to the west or north west allowing a slack SE'ly flow over northern parts.  ECM is the exception as it often is with a ridge extending south from a larger area of HP developing to the south of Svalbard (or is it Spitsbergen, I can never remember). Anyway, we get a warm ESE'ly thought that would keep haar troubling eastern coasts but warm and sunny inland.

Further into FI, GEM keeps the Atlantic LP spinning round to our west and weak heights developing to the south east so an increasingly warm scenario. GFS Control is not dissimilar with heights finally returning the Azores HP to southern Britain and northern France. Even the OP eventually brings the Azores HP more into play so we could be well into a 10-14 day unsettled and often wet and also often warm period before the Azores HP finally gets its act together and ridges back in from the SW. All up in the air (where else would it be?) for now but some positive signs for those already hankering for more settled conditions.

 

[Man With Beard]

Rainfall amounts considerably reduced on the ECM 12Z, except for the south west, south Wales and high ground. 

Now the models are starting to take this trough further and further to the SW, would you bet against it trending even further SW and leaving most with a hot and sunny weekend? 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Rainfall amounts considerably reduced on the ECM 12Z, except for the south west, south Wales and high ground. 

Now the models are starting to take this trough further and further to the SW, would you bet against it trending even further SW and leaving most with a hot and sunny weekend? 

No

[MATTWOLVES 3]

27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T168:

Looks like the lows are on collision course, here's where I predicted ECM would draw the resulting trough west from now, we wait to see.

We need to get that BBC sport commentator who's being commentating on trivial things, to do one on the ECM!

 

Who needs the BBC commentary Mike, when we have such an excellent team here..

Looks like that NW part of the UK is on for quite a lovely spell... Couple that with the fact there was no covid 19 deaths in Scotland for the last 24hrs...im sure you will take that guys and gals..

Edited June 7, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Guest]

While the warmer uppers spread in from the east on the ECM there’s still weakening frontal activity coming up from the south west. Lots of cloud and surprisingly not much in the way of convection, temps start to sneak but still a week away. 

[northwestsnow]

Its suddenly looking really interesting if you like warmth and storms...

And it also diverts attention away from that horrible virus stalking the world...

[Allseasons-Si]

240

That would be a thundery breakdown but not for long as heights build in again in the Atlantic,all speculation though but that was a nice run to say the least if it's storms and humid weather you are after.

[Methuselah]

So much for the locked-in cold and a rerun of Summer 2012! Is hyperbolous a word?

[MP-R]

38 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Rainfall amounts considerably reduced on the ECM 12Z, except for the south west, south Wales and high ground. 

Now the models are starting to take this trough further and further to the SW, would you bet against it trending even further SW and leaving most with a hot and sunny weekend? 

If this was a snowy channel low, I’d know the answer to that straight away lol... Nearer the time the snow stays south of the UK. No doubt the same will happen with this rainmaker.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If this was a snowy channel low, I’d know the answer to that straight away lol... Nearer the time the snow stays south of the UK. No doubt the same will happen with this rainmaker.

Exactly my thoughts. 

Rule of thumb with the models seems to be - high to the south, expect lows to correct east, high to the north, expect lows to correct west so long as there is no other trough in the vicinity. 

Though Thursday / Friday inevitably look wet, my money is on a mainly dry and very warm weekend

[Daniel*]

I can’t see how some parts of south the southwest especially are going to escape the drenching rains. Finely balanced for the southeast 50-100 miles either way can make a large difference in our country. 

[Gael_Force]

Surely very unusual to see Pwat charts showing the rain potential coming in from the continent.

    

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean on 12z, T144:

The future looks more and more clear.  The low to our SW at T144 will merge with the one over Greenland, the question then is how far does this system retrogress?   

The answer lies in the background signals, but it does now look like the pendulum has swung, and summer is back on!

ECM mean T240:

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

26 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

So much for the locked-in cold and a rerun of Summer 2012! Is hyperbolous a word?

I can see what you mean but nothings set in the stone yet. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

I can see what you mean but nothings set in the stone yet. 

Nothing's ever set in stone, apart from one sword, ages ago, maybe....

[sheikhy]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I can’t see how some parts of south the southwest especially are going to escape the drenching rains. Finely balanced for the southeast 50-100 miles either way can make a large difference in our country. 

Good news for us midlanders!!gone from 80 to 90 mm to 16 to 18 mm!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

As you where with the ensembles.. These out to day 10..just checked the extended mean out to day 14,and its pretty consistent.. Around 7.5c..the pressure around 1015mb. 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I can’t see how some parts of south the southwest especially are going to escape the drenching rains. Finely balanced for the southeast 50-100 miles either way can make a large difference in our country. 

I was also thinking the other way round - finely balanced for the SW too, 50-100 mile shift could push a lot of the SW out of the heavy rain zone, too. 

[Mike Poole]

Things might be moving quite fast, here's ICON.T120  compared to previous run T126:

 

[Weathizard]

Scandinavian heights, they are almost always much stronger than modelled against Low pressure systems, I can see this low ending up squeezed to death by what is a very powerful high pressure cell.

[sheikhy]

Trough swept south rapidly on gfs 18z!!at 72 hours!!maybe expect further upgrades on this tomorrow!!

[sheikhy]

Much less rainfall wednesday thursday because of the fast movement of the trough!!