Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[johnholmes]

Taking up on my point in my last post referring to b and mushy, call up the NOAA 6-10  and dop on to one screen, then, if you have it, go to Net Wx Extra and get the GFS output and then the 500 mb chart, click on the 00 z then the 06 Z 120, 168 240, so in some of the NOAA 6-10 time scale, switch between the 00 z and 06 Z and ompare each with the NOAA 500 mb. Note the similarity on each time slot. Yes of course they are not totally similar but they are not that different on any of the time slots nor between those and NOAA.

That suggsts that the 00 z and 06 z GFS runs are not that far from the NOAA set of charts which in turn fit fairly well with EC-GFS 500 mb anomaly charts so we can, very probably, expect the 500 mb is being predicted fairly well for the 120-240h period. So all that remains is getting the bottom 500mb down to the surface to accurately correspond.

It is, to me, a fairly good example of taking the anomaly charts WHEN they show consistency between one another and with time. Then taking a synoptic model, whichever one although GFS is really the only one at 500 mb freely available and comparing to, if they have overall agreement, that the forecast stands a reasonable chance of success.

 

Something to check while waiting for the 12Z to run out. Save it and try it another time. Who knows I MIGHT convince 1 or 2 of you to save it for the roller coaster winter season. Some of you might just not get such high blood pressure if I succeed. Don't blame me though if it does not work!

 

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Ok here’s my honest opinion, taking the GEFS 0z / 6z for example we may not be looking at a return to anything anticyclonic as such but I really do see potential for much warmer, perhaps even hot and probably humid continental conditions further ahead which means an increasing risk of thunderstorms..and sunshine at times to!!!!!!!!..just my opinion, for what it’s worth which is almost nothing!!!!!

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Taking up on my point in my last post referring to b and mushy, call up the NOAA 6-10  and dop on to one screen, then, if you have it, go to Net Wx Extra and get the GFS output and then the 500 mb chart, click on the 00 z then the 06 Z 120, 168 240, so in some of the NOAA 6-10 time scale, switch between the 00 z and 06 Z and ompare each with the NOAA 500 mb. Note the similarity on each time slot. Yes of course they are not totally similar but they are not that different on any of the time slots nor between those and NOAA.

That suggsts that the 00 z and 06 z GFS runs are not that far from the NOAA set of charts which in turn fit fairly well with EC-GFS 500 mb anomaly charts so we can, very probably, expect the 500 mb is being predicted fairly well for the 120-240h period. So all that remains is getting the bottom 500mb down to the surface to accurately correspond.

It is, to me, a fairly good example of taking the anomaly charts WHEN they show consistency between one another and with time. Then taking a synoptic model, whichever one although GFS is really the only one at 500 mb freely available and comparing to, if they have overall agreement, that the forecast stands a reasonable chance of success.

 

Something to check while waiting for the 12Z to run out. Save it and try it another time. Who knows I MIGHT convince 1 or 2 of you to save it for the roller coaster winter season. Some of you might just not get such high blood pressure if I succeed. Don't blame me though if it does not work!

 

 

I havnt Net Wx Extra , but thats basically what i do anyway with both the GFS and ECM and build a forecast structured around the closest op to the NOAA. No system is foolproof but i find this to be as good as you can get, and as you say, it irons out the "rollercoaster" the ops produce.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Mr Frost and all you Scottish crew, the Navgem looks great for you next week, especially Western areas of Scotland.. It could become very warm at times, and I noticed David said recently how he longs for a return of those mid to high 20s days.. This is also backed up in the Exeter update today... And a storm risk perhaps for the rest of further South.. What's not to like... Enjoy if you can. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

We have a new ECM parallel, here's the 0z at T168 and T240, this isn't a settled run, but looks warm, and, most importantly finishes in a zone that I think might actually be near where we end up:

12z ICON rolling now...

[SLEETY]

High pressure dominating over Scandinavia, well what a surprise its happening again outside of the winter months. 

You couldn't buy charts like that throughout the whole winter season just gone, and countless others too! 

So annoying the repeated patterns keep happening year after year, could be some hot weather again fairly soon. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

Fascinating viewing at the moment...

EC 00z looks broadly supportive of Exeters latest musings, talk of warm,perhaps very warm with the risk of storms...

Looking forward to the 12zs...

[SLEETY]

Hope we get some decent thunderstorms, it's been a while since we had a  proper storm  

Edited June 7, 2020 by SLEETY

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON places the low closer to the SW further NW over the BoB instead of Spain/France border with warmer temps thanks to a SE flow instead of a E/NE

12z 120 v's 00z 126

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hope we get some decent thunderstorms, it's been a while since we had a decent storm. 

Well, im no expert in anything but the outlook depicted by the models does surely include some of the required ingredients  , warm airmass and an unstable airmass..

Hopefully some of the more knowledgable in our community will offer better insight with regards to CAPE etc ...

Edited June 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[MikeC53]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We have a new ECM parallel, here's the 0z at T168 and T240, this isn't a settled run, but looks warm, and, most importantly finishes in a zone that I think might actually be near where we end up:

12z ICON rolling now...

Looks pretty dreadful to me. 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Looks pretty dreadful to me. 

Can you explain!!!?

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Looks pretty dreadful to me. 

I wouldn't say that, it looks good further north.

[MikeC53]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can you explain!!!?

Day 7 is wet for Wales and Southern England, day 10 the jet is rolling in off the Atlantic at exactly the wrong latitude for us as pressure remains high to the North.

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Day 7 is wet for Wales and Southern England, day 10 the jet is rolling in off the Atlantic at exactly the wrong latitude for us as pressure remains high to the North.

Thanks but just to clarify that the pressure doesn't remain in the north,it migrates east/SE deflecting the trough out west further NW,then starts to warm up from the SE,this is a test run anyway of the new ECM Parallel and all academic at that range,but please stop criticizing folk when they are only posting what the models show

full stop. 

sorry mods

anyway,the ICON finishes nice.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Allseasons-si
Added content

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Day 7 is wet for Wales and Southern England, day 10 the jet is rolling in off the Atlantic at exactly the wrong latitude for us as pressure remains high to the North.

Does ICON go to day 10?

As far as i am aware it only goes to day 8...

 

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does ICON go to day 10?

As far as i am aware it only goes to day 8...

 

 

He was commenting on the new ECM parallel the Mike Poole posted NWS. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

He was commenting on the new ECM parallel the Mike Poole posted NWS. 

Oh i see, thanks m8..

I was a bit confused.

 

[NApplewhite]

The GFS 12Z is out up to plus 96 hours - consistently showing the low pressure centered over Britanny Channel Islands and Bay of Biscay. Strong high pressure over Iceland, Faroe Islands ! This will lead to cool unsettled conditions to the E/NE winds. 

[mb018538]

ukmo day 5 - low cleared away enough to spare most a washout? Perhaps the south and southwest still quite wet.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just perfect for Scotland, Got some cracking conditions to look forward to.. @Mr Frost do you run a boarding house mate... I promise I will practice social distancing..

The UK as literally been spit roasted.. High to the NE High to the SW..

Edited June 7, 2020 by MATT☀️

[MikeC53]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does ICON go to day 10?

As far as i am aware it only goes to day 8...

 

 

 

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ukmo day 5 - low cleared away enough to spare most a washout? Perhaps the south and southwest still quite wet.

Yes both GFS and UKMO have the low further North by day 5 than there earlier runs - wet for as far North as the South Midlands.

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks to have extended the warm easterly much further west by day 6..

[MikeC53]

Things have taken a turn for the worse for Southern areas - heavy rain now moving back North at day 5.

[Ice Day]

This GFS run is a bit of a rainmaker, certainly for the south out to 102 

Cumulative rainfall has increased vs its previous run also, with some fairly large totals now showing up by Friday morning, with Central Southern England seeing the most at this point.