Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[MikeC53]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I know this is not the thread to discuss but the BBC forecast for the week ahead thats just been issued backs up the very wet scenarios being offered by GFS & ECM, some very unpleasant charts shown. Comments were more around the uncertainty of where the heaviest rain would be not would it be settled or unsettled 

Yes just seen it, I'm sure warnings will be issued when the areas likely to be impacted most are firmed up - but I'm certain the Midlands will be bang in line as we were in 2012.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

I'm afriad that is pure 'FI' we have to look at the reality facing us this week.

 

Nonsense. Like others have said you're quite happy to write an entire month off when it suits your agenda

Later next week does look potentially very wet but precip charts will change drastically from run to run, there's no point at all in guessing where stagnant weather fronts will be (if they even are there). FI starts before your 'reality' btw

It's model output discussion and people are quite entitled to post and comment on charts from day 8,9,10 ... etc

[Mark wheeler]

Well the mighty Navgem 6z goes from this at 120 hrs to then go on to produce a lovely warm easterly later on , One day it will be right , Nothing to worry about here . And yes I know the uppers are over Hyped , I love it

 

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mark wheeler
removed Tweet

[Gordon Webb]

3 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes just seen it, I'm sure warnings will be issued when the areas likely to be impacted most are firmed up - but I'm certain the Midlands will be bang in line as we were in 2012.

we didn't do that well in that year that shall not be named , ok enough of the harry potter it's 2007

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Well the mighty Navgem goes from this at 120 hrs . To then a lovely warm easterly later on , One day it will be right , Nothing to worry about here .

Also This 

 

Yes, Mark, that is the way the GEM is headed, here at T180, and it looks more believable than the other dross we've seen tonight:

And I think I'd ignore Matt Hugo, he talks round objects about AAM, in my opinion. It isn't a subject that can be told in a tweet.

 

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

The GFS ensembles starting to roll and looking at just uppers isn't going to give you the full picture. No doubt there is a warming trend there, however looking at the precip there are spikes all over the place from the all the ensembles. Focusing on London, Bournemouth & Birmingham the biggest spikes defo homing in on the midlands although to be fair almost anywhere could be inline for a deluge. 

[MikeC53]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Mark, that is the way the GEM is headed, here at T180, and it looks more believable than the other dross we've seen tonight:

And I think I'd ignore Matt Hugo, he talks round objects about AAM, in my opinion. It isn't a subject that can be told in a tweet.

 

Why is the GEM any more believable ? It's not the best model by any stretch.

Matt Hugo is a respected meteorologist and his thoughts reflect at the very least that once we are in this pattern it's very difficult to get out of.

[markw2680]

23 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Could be mid July before we see any heat yet. These runs are surely just another one step closer to writing off the month.  

But in reality are they going to come true?? I doubt it somehow, one thing I certainly won’t be doing is writing off a month on the 6th of the month lol, too much taking charts and runs as gospel here...

[Mark wheeler]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Mark, that is the way the GEM is headed, here at T180, and it looks more believable than the other dross we've seen tonight:

And I think I'd ignore Matt Hugo, he talks round objects about AAM, in my opinion. It isn't a subject that can be told in a tweet.

 

Thanks Mike I’ll delete that Part of my post as I was pondering as to post it or not , Edit - The last thing I wanted to do is start a row over him ,My apologies . 

interesting  the Gem too very similar .

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

This is the best we can hope for I reckon. GEM day 9 has the low pulled sufficiently west and +12 uppers moving in from the east.

[Weather Boy]

32 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Weren’t the models predicting some 100mm totals for today and yesterday at some point? That hasn’t happened. Be wary of precipitation charts at that kind of range as minute changes in the formation and track of the LP will have huge impacts on the projected totals.

Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago.

 

Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site.

 

The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required.

[Gordon Webb]

Just now, Weather Boy said:

Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago.

 

Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site.

 

The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required.

need to be a much bigger ark with the new social distancing requirement , they all went in 2 by 2 2 meters apart

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Why is the GEM any more believable ? It's not the best model by any stretch.

Matt Hugo is a respected meteorologist and his thoughts reflect at the very least that once we are in this pattern it's very difficult to get out of.

And what about the thoughts of our own @Tamara and @Singularity, who don’t support your theory? If you actually gave a balanced view in your posts, you might get a bit less stick. I am NOT saying you are wrong, but your posts come across like it’s a done deal, which it isn’t. Then you go liking posts from people that write the whole month off, or in some cases the next 6 weeks!  Not trying to pick an argument, but just trying to move things on a bit.

[MikeC53]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

And what about the thoughts of our own @Tamara and @Singularity, who don’t support your theory? If you actually gave a balanced view in your posts, you might get a bit less stick. I am NOT saying you are wrong, but your posts come across like it’s a done deal, which it isn’t. Then you go liking posts from people that write the whole month off, or in some cases the next 6 weeks!  Not trying to pick an argument, but just trying to move things on a bit.

With respect to those posters, I've read some of their stuff in winter that predicts change to colder conditions - and those changes have never come.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The op is a little on its own at times regarding pressure, but both the mean and the op agree of it perhaps becoming more settled later, quite a few sharp spikes on those rainfall totals, but hints of it becoming more settled later... This is a long way off though and is obviously subject to huge changes. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, MikeC53 said:

With respect to those posters, I've read some of their stuff in winter that predicts change to colder conditions - and those changes have never come.

And many times they have been near the mark. Matt Hugo has had some epic failures too - only a brave person would stake their reputation on him. He also cannot stand any criticism.

[Tamara]

3 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

With respect to those posters, I've read some of their stuff in winter that predicts change to colder conditions - and those changes have never come.

If I may interject here - that assertion might prove somewhat problematic...I don't post here in winter..

NWP starting to "see" the return of the trough to the west and south west around the mid month period as suggested earlier. This is not looking to be a settled period, the emphasis is on humid conditions and thundery potential. With that in mind it is helpful re-iterating because "reasonable weather for this time of year can span both warm and settled and also the more "tropical" type.

Hope people enjoy the rest of the weekend and stay safe and well

 

[Mike Poole]

The models are showing charts that in a normal period of existence, you would have to question what caused this weird pattern, two examples, if you saw these charts for new today what would you have thought had caused them?

A. First up GFS at the new T0:

B. Second GEM at T0:

Most interesting or amusing answers gets a like, yes that's small beer but the pubs aren't open!!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, MikeC53 said:

If they were for todaythen that was never going to happen from a northerly set-up. This is quite different and brings back memories of this time last year - nearly 3 days of continuous rain and max temps of 12C.

Agree with the point made about today's air source - its a cold polar one, not normally associated with heavy rain at anytime of year. The low pressure forecast for next week, will have a more maritime air source and warmer uppers - which consequently increases likelihood of much heavier rain.

[Zak M]

Well, there's certainly a lot of action going on in here!

To the models, the 12z GFS is showing some thundery potential on day 9 and 10. I'm not really bothered whether it will come off because I had a spectacular thunderstorm this afternoon!

[Methuselah]

Latest GEFS ensembles are still indicating a warm-up; but, also increasing amounts of rain:

    

    

So, from the GFS's perspective, a spell of warm, humid and thundery weather is the form horse?

Edited June 6, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

@MikeC53 - GEM is now consistently verifying as 3rd best behind ecm and ukmo. Gfs gets posted the most as it gives 4 runs a day....but it’s actually the 4th best now. So GEM is definitely worth looking at

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well, there's certainly a lot of action going on in here!

To the models, the 12z GFS is showing some thundery potential on day 9 and 10. I'm not really bothered whether it will come off because I had a spectacular thunderstorm this afternoon!

Zak, think you'll want another one by then

[Frosty.]

There’s tons of summery potential in the GEFS 12z, lots of warm / very warm potential mid month and then hot potential during the last third of June!...I’m feeling positive about the rest of this month..I could have shown a lot more charts!!!..hot topic..hot potential!!!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, looks like GEM solution and then some:

Edit, add GEM chart for same time:

Edited June 6, 2020 by Mike Poole