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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS gets some really warm uppers in by day 8/9 with temps into the mid 20s ...

Very unusual setup ..

But if your stuck under the rain band then projected temps of that sort end up being 16/17.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.gif.acea404430412db939ceb745d811f49b.gif

Day 6 - Improving picture as low sinks into France 

It's what tends to happen in winter, isn't it?! For a while, the trough seems destined for the UK with an easterly feed behind it - then, around D5/D6, one model sinks the trough into Europe, and within 24 hours all the other models follow. 

Will the ECM follow UKMO or GFS tonight? Or something else? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

AB1F9E9A-23EC-46A5-AAB7-044FB38E661B.thumb.gif.084e51776e04973bd21bbe57228b8484.gif

Plenty of rain around on the 12z gfs. 2-4 inches in 10 days in a quite a few areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, MikeC53 said:

But if your stuck under the rain band then projected temps of that sort end up being 16/17.

Possibly.

Best hope one doesn't get stuck under a rain band then !

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Thanks to Tamara for another detailed explanation of the broader situation at hand (the wood, at the front of which next weeks trees stand!).

The effect of AAM cycling back upward has implications for the week after next. It won’t be occurring soon enough to affect the slider low shenanigans next week, The onset of which is largely down to how troughs in the US move around while tropical storm Cristobal gets involved with things.

Remains to be seen if the leading low will really dive straight through the UK or not - but it has a lot of votes now so we probably should be prepared for the possibility of a very wet spell of weather affecting part of the UK sometime Wed-Fri. Southern half seems favoured but you can never truly be sure with these features until it’s a only couple of days away.

Weekend sees a good chance of a warmup but stable conditions look difficult at the moment. Some thunderstorm potential there.

Next week should see the lows tending to locate further and further west. Models often struggle immensely with how cleanly or not that sort of retrograde sequencing occurs.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS gets some really warm uppers in by day 8/9 with temps into the mid 20s ...

Very unusual setup ..

Yes, very unusual setup, and one which won't happen because the models are all over the place at about T96, that might even be a bit generous...

The later evolution of any model is moot at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

AB1F9E9A-23EC-46A5-AAB7-044FB38E661B.thumb.gif.084e51776e04973bd21bbe57228b8484.gif

Plenty of rain around on the 12z gfs. 2-4 inches in 10 days in a quite a few areas.

Yes some horrendous totals - not surprising as we will have slow moving fronts for around 5 consecutive days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes some horrendous totals - not surprising as we will have slow moving fronts for around 5 consecutive days. 

Lets hope GFS is overdoing the projections but yes,some heavy rain likely next week by the looks of things...

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

AB1F9E9A-23EC-46A5-AAB7-044FB38E661B.thumb.gif.084e51776e04973bd21bbe57228b8484.gif

Plenty of rain around on the 12z gfs. 2-4 inches in 10 days in a quite a few areas.

Be careful posting something like that...….

It's not a great run is it and starts to marry up with some of the previous output from ECM. Hopefully its in the wettest and most unsettled part of the ensembles, however with KMO looking like it is there appears to increasing chances somewhere is going to cope a ton of rain and some more really suppressed temps. 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well what horrendous output so far this evening. Ukmo at t144 looks like it wants to keep in under low pressure set up. Gfs looks very wet next week with us under cool conditions. Dare I say chilly if anyone is stuck under those rain bands. Certainly after Tuesday it’s pretty much a right off for several days perhaps longer. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Attentions turn to the GEM, a stronger ridge on this one than GFS at  justT108, this may go better:

image.thumb.jpg.35cb9ea19d24b4cf61a56cd58354b0f2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.cf72b32edbfcf06eb1f81aada2d223b6.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
3 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well what horrendous output so far this evening. Ukmo at t144 looks like it wants to keep in under low pressure set up. Gfs looks very wet next week with us under cool conditions. Dare I say chilly if anyone is stuck under those rain bands. Certainly after Tuesday it’s pretty much a right off for several days perhaps longer. 

Yes we are going to see the weather making the news in low lying areas I fear - the last thing people need right now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Weren’t the models predicting some 100mm totals for today and yesterday at some point? That hasn’t happened. Be wary of precipitation charts at that kind of range as minute changes in the formation and track of the LP will have huge impacts on the projected totals.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Weren’t the models predicting some 100mm totals for today and yesterday at some point? That hasn’t happened. Be wary of precipitation charts at that kind of range as minute changes in the formation and track of the LP will have huge impacts on the projected totals.

If they were for todaythen that was never going to happen from a northerly set-up. This is quite different and brings back memories of this time last year - nearly 3 days of continuous rain and max temps of 12C.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS brings some very pleasant warm temps by day 10 onwards with plenty of days into the low to mid 20s...

Sorry, just thinking aloud... 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, MikeC53 said:

If they were for todaythen that was never going to happen from a northerly set-up. This is quite different and brings back memories of this time last year - nearly 3 days of continuous rain and max temps of 12C.

Yep, but still too soon to be worried about it.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
9 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well what horrendous output so far this evening. Ukmo at t144 looks like it wants to keep in under low pressure set up. Gfs looks very wet next week with us under cool conditions. Dare I say chilly if anyone is stuck under those rain bands. Certainly after Tuesday it’s pretty much a right off for several days perhaps longer. 

Could be mid July before we see any heat yet. These runs are surely just another one step closer to writing off the month.  

Edited by 38.7°C
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Don't say Old Man Goofus is 'thinking' of sending a plume in our direction, too?:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS brings some very pleasant warm temps by day 10 onwards with plenty of days into the low to mid 20s...

Sorry, just thinking aloud... 

I'm afriad that is pure 'FI' we have to look at the reality facing us this week.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, MikeC53 said:

I'm afriad that is pure 'FI' we have to look at the reality facing us this week.

 

Which you are not doing, because the uncertainty is earlier than that.

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I know this is not the thread to discuss but the BBC forecast for the week ahead thats just been issued backs up the very wet scenarios being offered by GFS & ECM, some very unpleasant charts shown. Comments were more around the uncertainty of where the heaviest rain would be not would it be settled or unsettled 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, MikeC53 said:

I'm afriad that is pure 'FI' we have to look at the reality facing us this week.

 

Yes, lots of rain.

Hopefully a warm up thereafter, as GFS suggests with temps climbing into the mid 20s by next sunday onwards.

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes, lots of rain.

Hopefully a warm up thereafter, as GFS suggests with temps climbing into the mid 20s by next sunday onwards.

 

Agreed but both ECM and GFS suggested temps into the mid 20's by Thurs/Fri two days ago, now its guess 'who's going to get to get the biggest rainfall totals'

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