Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

Can we really get 100mm+ of rainfall, from a 1016mb 'depression'? Anywho, it looks like all of the models are slowly moving toward the real weather; but from opposing directions!

    

Edited June 6, 2020 by General Cluster

[Ice Day]

Morning all, hope you're all doing well.  Long time since I posted but I'm on here everyday!  Anyway, the model shenanigans have been most amusing over the last few days but it does seem that the GFS has finally been dragged into line with its tail between its legs!  Virtual parity at 120 with the UKMO now (GFS first)

  

As already been said, those ECM rainfall totals are really concerning, let's hope it's overdone the numbers.  Certainly the models are not having their finest hours at the moment so I wouldn't worry until those show within 96-120hrs.

 

 

[mb018538]

ecm op - phew!

[Djdazzle]

GFS 0z vs 6z at the same time (120). Shocking!

Edited June 6, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Guest]

Well GFS 06Z seems more closely aligned with GEM model from earlier @ T144. Its certainly not in the same league as ECM, and not really like UMKO either - I don't know!.....

It's turning into a very messy run, but one that is dictated by blocking highs over north western Russia and the central Atlantic with blighty in no mans land. 

Edited June 6, 2020 by Guest

[sheikhy]

Gfs better than ecm much less rainfall!!but it has gone towards both ecm and ukmo for defo!!ecm a big outlier again!!maybe a better 12z on the way!!maybe it will be the trough on gfs now and high pressure on ecm this evening

[MikeC53]

Well the GFS 06z now has the trough albeit as a weak looking feature and arrives at a similar conculsion at day 7 as the 0z run did - the Atlantic returning and generally cool and unsettled. So different from the ECM at the same range and that's only the consolation at the moment. 

[Djdazzle]

Everything is a mess at the moment. Every model is different from 120 onwards.

[Leo97t]

I think weve been quite unlucky here with the trough dropping - I think that any properly settled weather may have to wait til 20th June+

[Frosty.]

Well, I still detect a gradual improvement in temperatures at the very least according to the ECM 0z ensemble mean..generally less unsettled too compared to currently.!!!

 

[Guest]

GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to getting locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late  May are significantly reducing.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Guest

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Everything is a mess at the moment. Every model is different from 120 onwards.

Never have truer words been spoken, Dj!

[MikeC53]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late  May are significantly reducing.

Yes, a dreadful overall pattern emerging on all models that go out to day 10 - with the coolest and wettest weather in Europe reserved for the UK and Ireland of course.

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really is like this mornings GEM run, worryingly like the GEM its trying to link the western Russian high with Greenland heights which ECM is also trying to do towards the end of its run. Again this not a pattern we want as it's prone to getting locked in. Either way I think its fair to say the changes of the 'Front loaded' summer that were being talked about through late  May are significantly reducing.

And maybe the outlier ecm ensemble op is correct!!!picking up a new signal!!

[mb018538]

Theres still 10/51 ecm members pushing the old gfs solution. There’s still hope yet folks!

[Singularity]

I think, with respect to mid to late next week, we're starting to see some more reasonable 'bit of this, bit of that' solutions from UKMO, GFS and GEM now. Each with their own take on the situation but none going for widespread huge rainfall totals.

Odds are, some part of the UK will spend a day or two in the cool-warm boundary zone and see a considerable amount, while other parts see nothing all that unusual for mid-June. 

ECM seems to be displaying that odd habit it has of exploring extreme solutions first one way (all those particularly warm and drier runs) and then the other (the past two incredibly wet runs). Something about the way it works seems to cause feedbacks that cause a weather pattern to self-sustain and/or develop more than we usually see in reality.

 

Longer-term, bit of a problem with Arctic height rises being indicated now. I've seen Judah Cohen tweeting about another 'pulse' of warm anomalies 'dripping down' from the stratosphere, akin to what led to the brief negative AO interlude in May from which we saw that extraordinarily chilly spell of weather (especially by night).

This time, however, we've got a pretty strong signal for a broad quasi-stationary trough to be established due-west of the UK, most likely centred somewhere between due south of Greenland and due south of Iceland. As we saw last summer, this duo can lead to some hot spells of weather, though rarely very stable (three fine days and a thunderstorm comes to mind). GFS 06z explores this well.

 

With the way the models have been lately, though, I have to wonder if any of this analysis will still be relevant even tomorrow! Especially considering the expected climb of AAM through neutral and the focus of high pressure from the UK eastward that such corresponds strongly to in June. Trouble there is, such composites tend to be independent of what the AO is doing as a result of stratospheric events. So if you're looking for a (potential) proverbial spanner in the works, look to the skies above the Arctic!

[StormChaseUK]

The 06z GFS looks ok to me, the heat surge is still there just about towards the end of the run.  

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I think, with respect to mid to late next week, we're starting to see some more reasonable 'bit of this, bit of that' solutions from UKMO, GFS and GEM now. Each with their own take on the situation but none going for widespread huge rainfall totals.

Odds are, some part of the UK will spend a day or two in the cool-warm boundary zone and see a considerable amount, while other parts see nothing all that unusual for mid-June. 

ECM seems to be displaying that odd habit it has of exploring extreme solutions first one way (all those particularly warm and drier runs) and then the other (the past two incredibly wet runs). Something about the way it works seems to cause feedbacks that cause a weather pattern to self-sustain and/or develop more than we usually see in reality.

 

Longer-term, bit of a problem with Arctic height rises being indicated now. I've seen Judah Cohen tweeting about another 'pulse' of warm anomalies 'dripping down' from the stratosphere, akin to what led to the brief negative AO interlude in May from which we saw that extraordinarily chilly spell of weather (especially by night).

This time, however, we've got a pretty strong signal for a broad quasi-stationary trough to be established due-west of the UK, most likely centred somewhere between due south of Greenland and due south of Iceland. As we saw last summer, this duo can lead to some hot spells of weather, though rarely very stable (three fine days and a thunderstorm comes to mind). GFS 06z explores this well.

 

With the way the models have been lately, though, I have to wonder if any of this analysis will still be relevant even tomorrow! Especially considering the expected climb of AAM through neutral and the focus of high pressure from the UK eastward that such corresponds strongly to in June. Trouble there is, such composites tend to be independent of what the AO is doing as a result of stratospheric events. So if you're looking for a (potential) proverbial spanner in the works, look to the skies above the Arctic!

Looks like we’re just setting down the blocks to a poor period to me. Moscow and Kiev forecast to be up at 25-30c for the foreseeable....once that Eastern European heat block builds up and a trough ends up near us then it doesn’t usually end well. Or quickly. Let’s just hope that we don’t see days of rain and flooding.

[Guest]

GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

Tomorrow 7th - 15C

Monday 8th - 15C

Tuesday 9th - 14C

Wednesday 10th - 14C

Thursday 11th - 14C

Friday 12th - 15C

Saturday 13th - 11C

Sunday 14th - 14C

Monday 15th - 15C

Tuesday 16th - 16C

Wednesday 17th -18C

Thursday 18th - 14C

Friday 19th -18C

Saturday 20th - 14C

Monday 21st -17C

[Zak M]

A quite different 06z GFS today, starting to show the trough dive in. However, towards the end of the run, a low pumps up warmer air from the continent, and with the low nearby it could go bang in a few places...

      

Edited June 6, 2020 by Zak M

[Tamara]

The commentary on here is poorer to be honest than anything that NWP suggests

Far too much absurd overreaction to this trough cutting off and disrupting south through the middle/latter part of the coming week. It has already been pointed out more than once that this theme has ebbed and flowed since early in the week (i.e at least 4 days) so it is hard to know why so many are acting surprised and/or disappointed about it. Especially as it was something of a note of interest initially in terms of possibilities thereafter! Quite bizarre!

 From my own point of view little has changed over the week, other than yesterday it did seem possible that a faster track to warmer air might have been possible with the Atlantic ridge splitting and allowing a downstream ridge to develop ahead of the trough - thus allowing the warmer air to back westwards more quickly. However, from the outset, about three posts back, some doubts were expressed about the eastward progression of the Atlantic ridge prior to mid month and hence the full retrogression and re-set route always seemed more likely..

The diagnostic - i.e the balance of the completion of the retrogressive phase (as detailed to exhaustion already) and when momentum from upstream might start to return - thus re-setting a trough in the Atlantic vs ridging across Scandinavia was always going to be a fine margin and this margin is far from decided yet  - following the trough heading north to south through the UK.   That theme is still advertised - it is simply that the numerical models have not decided where the new trough wavelength sits vs the warmer continental air to the east. 

Better not to agitate over intra day operational details, and most especially surface details, which frankly are a particular lottery up to 5 to 10 days out at the moment and from my own perspective seems like a complete waste of time as well as quite unnecessary and self inflicted  stress,  That includes any "demonising" of any computer model which are simply making calculations around a broad theme that has actually been consistent for several days - it is simply micro scale details which are determining how the process evolves and for a small island like this one these make subtle but quite significant short term variations from one output to another and from one numerical model to another.

Rather than trying to see too many trees in the wood, stand back and cast an eye generally around the wood first, and then pick out the trees one by one. One corner at a time rather taking on the next three at once and expecting immediate answers.

In summary, and based on attempted objectivity (not optimism) still no reason at all not to expect a warming trend once this sinking trough equation is dealt with. In fact the mid month period onwards holds a lot of interest for low pressure to finally end up sitting to our west and south west and sending up some very warm and humid air as it pushes up against omnipresent high pressure to the NE. That, representing the point where the retrogressive phase completes and the trough is re-set to the west.

Really seems counter intuitive to let this sinking trough overtake the greater perspective and then just extrapolate outwards c/o baseless pessimism. It isn't actually about being either optimistic or pessimistic - just trying to stop believing that is the models that lead the signals....

 

[Leo97t]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

Tomorrow 7th - 15C

Monday 8th - 15C

Tuesday 9th - 14C

Wednesday 10th - 14C

Thursday 11th - 14C

Friday 12th - 15C

Saturday 13th - 11C

Sunday 14th - 14C

Monday 15th - 15C

Tuesday 16th - 16C

Wednesday 17th -18C

Thursday 18th - 14C

Friday 19th -18C

Saturday 20th - 14C

Monday 21st -17C

its largely above average for most of the run in the se - disaster every where else and would likely be one of the coldest Junes on record further west if verified 

it won't verify though I think any of the models are yet to get close to the final pattern - I suspect UKMO is the closest this morning

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It seems we are spelling an end to the first part of summer on here.. All I would say is considering the uncertainty and the major flapping around of these models... Then thats a brave call to make. Even the GFS mean is not really backing up the operational.. Its miles out with that deep low at day 8ish...its just impossible to call beyond a few days.. 

[MikeC53]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS really is a disgustingly cold run for my area. 18Z Max temps as follows, some areas do better, some worse. Either way dire.

Tomorrow 7th - 15C

Monday 8th - 15C

Tuesday 9th - 14C

Wednesday 10th - 14C

Thursday 11th - 14C

Friday 12th - 15C

Saturday 13th - 11C

Sunday 14th - 14C

Monday 15th - 15C

Tuesday 16th - 16C

Wednesday 17th -18C

Thursday 18th - 14C

Friday 19th -18C

Saturday 20th - 14C

Monday 21st -17C

Yes I just looked at the same for here - below average to cold and as MB says, heat building over NE Europe generally means poor conditions for us.

[Mapantz]

If you're just interested in moaning about the weather/charts, then post it HERE

Keep it to constructive model discussion in here, please?!