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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Probably a good point to call it a day and see what the 00z says. The trouble will be at day 4 by then, perhaps we will get a better handle on things. Will gfs fall into line? An amazing ukmo flip? 
See you all tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think there are encouraging signs from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean regarding a return to warmer weather, the ensemble spread means there is bound to be some dilution to any very warm signal but even so, the uppers (850’s) do warm through and following this current autumnal feeling spell, a gradual return to something more summer-like would seem quite a reasonable bet as we head towards mid June onwards?!

84CA6F86-3B7C-4187-A6E9-80C550DAE7AE.thumb.gif.949806610bd1f39192d47119a7aa6097.gif63F80E65-4871-4BEC-BA5A-EE1455AFA023.thumb.gif.a240e5fb15a8ae12fd0cf238c97deb90.gif80467ADC-1A57-49EF-A411-104119AEF991.thumb.gif.26920f84323e9d0f4687b3ff409b6e82.gifA8BC5FD2-5C11-4988-B115-D4AF47642B41.thumb.gif.5fab1b0fc0fd8a67d914c040039064bf.gif2D39DA1C-05F6-4878-BA3A-9BE1D4CC016B.thumb.gif.69e52478b20358c53d522f33ee9f3c56.gif229D17F1-3FD5-4B04-8EB3-652A2F7780BB.thumb.jpeg.c36492178b805a110e1263ec769d10b0.jpeg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
40 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Erm

77D79B25-8AA9-4FC1-833F-D53039C96105.thumb.png.60a386a56587476d6d5eca44c63f1b1b.png

lol, ah well I may have been too focused on my own parched garden, apologies. That does look bad all right. But it’s not certain, we shall see, or maybe sea in fact.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latest from cpc is still looking good here folks and is pretty much the same as last evening's but a slight difference with the trough placement,it is further SW instead of south of the UK so that in turn will be warmer and dryer but would still have the threat of some imports in terms of storm potential

610day_03.thumb.gif.e6ef6ffd8febaa1b1b86ef09f431be1e.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.f3764955c93820e87e07d8cdce1adf67.gif

a look at the De-built ecm ens(based in Holland),i use these to determine if we get a warm continental flow or not

temps,dew points and wind direction

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.52829181bc9d5891df847768266b107b.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.aa1722a1a8a3702154ee8ddb9700f446.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.3c32b4ed192c1745e8157fa2ac69c56e.png

and as you can see that there is quiet a few of those members going for 30c with dew points going on for 15+ and the wind direction of 0-45 degrees is south/southeast 

so looking above,the extended is still looking rosy,with a chance of thunderstorms☀️?️

 

 

Sorry but just a minor point 045 degrees is NE'ly not SE'ly.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Never fear Navgem is here 

D614AA6C-1799-4E1B-B22F-3A4C809B924F.jpeg

322FD7EE-4E59-4AA5-AF3E-CB8FC47FDAF8.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry but just a minor point 045 degrees is NE'ly not SE'ly.

Sorry John,you are right,i am not still in winter mode,i promise.

i will edit.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

If its of any consolation Icon once again follows gfs!!no diving low!!

And at 120

icon-0-120.thumb.png.681e5247b59979ca13b317d7973ac498.png

i wonder if that tropical storm in the GoM is creating havoc with the models?

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Day 6:

image.thumb.jpg.3604377eb8aa78c1a84f00d20788aeb9.jpg

Day 10:

image.thumb.jpg.61ff19c197db73f1ad026f14161dfe00.jpg

For 0z runs.

You know you need to sort your shh...tuff out when you’re behind the GEM at both day 6 and 10.

Incidentally, how many times in winter are we praying for a trough to drop SEwards, only for it carry on eastwards to our north.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And at 120

icon-0-120.thumb.png.681e5247b59979ca13b317d7973ac498.png

i wonder if that tropical storm in the GoM is creating havoc with the models?

One can only dream gfs is right lol!!!if the ecm and ukmo show same tomorrow but gfs sticks to its guns i really will be speechless!!

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

 following this current autumnal feeling spell,

 

 

Surely you mean 'cooler Spring like' rather than Autumnal. Considering October is usually warmer than May and the current day length, it is nothing like Autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that trough not dropping on the gfs!!my god the drama!!!!this is unreal

Nope,at 90.

gfs-0-90.thumb.png.38818c4c87141a1b16d4410a2a627765.png

i said last night that i would give it at 72 then crunch time.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Nope,at 90.

gfs-0-90.thumb.png.38818c4c87141a1b16d4410a2a627765.png

This is amazing to watch the trough has not dropped what so ever!!as a weather enthusiast it really does not get anymore better than this!!!96 hours in and gfs still has the high pushing in!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

This is amazing to watch the trough has not dropped what so ever!!as a weather enthusiast it really does not get anymore better than this!!!96 hours in and gfs still has the high pushing in!

I know,it's crazy

is knocker on vacation in America at the gfs control center with his red crayons lol

sorry knocker

model watching in the morning is going to be crazy i tell ya.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Nowhere near as robust looking as the 12z run but infinitely 'better' than the UKMO and ECM

image.thumb.png.6f7c28f81e8ab5dad86f11bcdbade1c0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, sheikhy said:

Trough swallowed within the main low by 126 hours!!high pressure all over the uk lol!

It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west.

18z v's 12z

gfs-0-138.thumb.png.d5be801a1d9406c0c59cd98e1c931716.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.f79aa70d6f4ee3d6d264db29a211bdd7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west.

18z v's 12z

gfs-0-138.thumb.png.d5be801a1d9406c0c59cd98e1c931716.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.f79aa70d6f4ee3d6d264db29a211bdd7.png

It has certainly inched more towards the troughing scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It develops the trough further west down the eastern north sea/western Scandinavia than the 12z so that is a westward correction,it's trying to play catch up and by the morning it will have further corrections west.

18z v's 12z

gfs-0-138.thumb.png.d5be801a1d9406c0c59cd98e1c931716.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.f79aa70d6f4ee3d6d264db29a211bdd7.png

Isnt that a seperate trough though not the iceland one?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Isnt that a seperate trough though not the iceland one?

It is and isn't,it partially breaks off the Icelandic one here circled.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.a4d64ec0fae6aa5b6b896d9cabfcb253.png 

but like you say,the main Icelandic one earlier in the run doesn't drop,i have an headache

Edited by Allseasons-si
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