Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Allseasons-Si]

GFS at 120!!!

scratches head with the UKMO,.com

Edited June 5, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[sheikhy]

Clearly going down to the wire!!!ukmo not letting up and although we gona end up maybe with the same result we are looking at a really wet couple of days before hand!!gfs still the same!!!

[mb018538]

I honestly can’t remember having such differences at day 6 in all my model watching years (nearly 20 of those!).

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS at day 6...get the barbi and the beers on standby..

Ohhhh lala.

Edited June 5, 2020 by MATT☀️

[MikeC53]

Incredible differences between UKMO and GFS, there can't be a halfway house solution either !

[Methuselah]

Another day, and another GFS stonker-in-waiting!

    

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, MATT said:

GFS at day 6...get the barbi and the beers on standby..

Or get the brolly and the BBQ cover ready if the UKMO is right

this is going to go down to 72 hrs like THAT failed ECM easterly

lets see what shenanigans the ECM comes up with later but i feel that this is not going to be solved today or tomorrow. 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Incredible differences between UKMO and GFS, there can't be a halfway house solution either !

You want an idea of how a middle ground solution would!!best take a look at the latest 12z arpege!!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO will be correct...(IMO).

I suspect the trough will end up south of the UK and some kind of easterly will follow a day later on UKMO at 144, obviously i would prefer the GFS evolution as it is quicker and cleaner but i doubt UKMO will be wrong at 96hrs out..

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO will be correct...(IMO).

I suspect the trough will end up south of the UK and some kind of easterly will follow a day later on UKMO at 144, obviously i would prefer the GFS evolution as it is quicker and cleaner but i doubt UKMO will be wrong at 96hrs out..

If UKMO is correct then it’s another nail in the coffin for GFS!

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO will be correct...(IMO).

I suspect the trough will end up south of the UK and some kind of easterly will follow a day later on UKMO at 144, obviously i would prefer the GFS evolution as it is quicker and cleaner but i doubt UKMO will be wrong at 96hrs out..

Massive ecm this evening!!if it goes with gfs and thats a big if then i really cant see the ukmo being correct!!!could be the last of these ugly runs from the ukmo!!but if ecm goes towards it then its pretty much game over for gfs and it would not be the only time this has happened to gfs!!pretty poor model!!i just hope it is right for once and picked out the correct pattern!

[Djdazzle]

I’d like to know a bit more about why they are so different at 96?

[Mike Poole]

GEM sides with UKMO now at T120:

GFS still has ICON on side, I suppose.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d like to know a bit more about why they are so different at 96?

The icelandic low on the ukmo seperates from the main low near the southern tip of greenland and therefore disrupts over the uk and heads south!!the gfs swallows that icelandic low into that main low and then heads east north east which is why high pressure ridges in stronger from the west!!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM sides with UKMO now at T120:

GFS still has ICON on side, I suppose.

Much better than ukmo though at 120 hours!!of its gone disrupt id rather it disrupt as far south and west as possible like gem!!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

The icelandic low on the ukmo seperates from the main low near the southern tip of greenland and therefore disrupts over the uk and heads south!!the gfs swallows that icelandic low into that main low and then heads east north east which is why high pressure ridges in stronger from the west!!!

In that case UKMO is more likely to be correct as it seems to handle things in that part of the world better than GFS.

[Captain Shortwave]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM sides with UKMO now at T120:

GFS still has ICON on side, I suppose.

The GEM goes beyond the UKMO and the low slips southwards through the west of the U.K. and clearly quicker too. That might actually work out well in the long term if it is right....

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z not bad, at Day 9...I guess the inter-model variation is the result in the uncertainty as to how the depression will evolve; it ain't often depressions move south-southwestwards over the UK?

    

[Allseasons-Si]

I think i know what the issue is and here at 96 hrs from both the GFS and UKMO you can see why,i have put the NH view on so that you can see it better

the gfs hardly has ridging between systems and that one off Newfoundland just barrels through phasing with the one in front(Iceland one),where as the UKMO has more ridging/amplification in between the two forcing the Iceland low SE and not phasing with the Newfoundland one

that's my take on it,feel free to comment if i am wrong!

Edit: Shaky has just put what i put,great minds

Edit 2:where is Nick Sussex

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[mb018538]

What a dogs dinner. The main 3 out tonight so very different at 144. You just have a hunch that the gfs is barking up the wrong tree here. I’d be amazed if ukmo and gem are wrong this close.

[Djdazzle]

Although if UKMO is correct, ECM won’t exactly have covered itself in glory.

[terrier]

ukmo and gem very similar at t96. Really cant see the ukmo been wrong here. Definitely think the gfs is barking up the wrong tree here. But should we be surprised as it’s the 4th best in model performance at the moment. Think this will be yet another nail in the gfs coffin. I’d expect the ecm to fall into line with the ukmo either tomorrow morning or if not by tomorrow evening run. 

[ribster]

Liking UKMO this evening, not infallible as has been said, but wouldn't bet my house against it!

[Guest]

So if we are looking at the trough option via the UKMO will stick around over the U.K. or will sink further south. Has be said if GFS is wrong on this one it will have performed exceptionally badly, especially given universal support from its ensembles pack for several runs now!! 

[mb018538]

GEM is unsettled from day 5 for a good stretch of days as the low doesn’t clear away. Danger of ukmo following suit.