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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

That's my understanding - the polar vortex actually increases the reliability in winter. Summer lacks such clear drivers. 

OK, here's a question since we're discussing this, why is the model performance in the SH seemingly random re season, when in the NH it is definitely not, same chart below as I posted for the NH above?

image.thumb.jpg.8e2b1bcfd1b90646f10291e78d2fdcb7.jpg

Hint? Maybe, but I still want to know what others think.  The SH has far fewer sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, that might have something to do with it?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Icon 18z seems to have moved towards ecm in regards to that low near iceland!!high pressure nudging in a bit more from the atlantic as well!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I think this is the key point on GFS 18z, T132:

image.thumb.jpg.08079574de1b90d7dc8edce4cd36642a.jpg

What happens next,does the ridge move in as per GEM, does the trough dive in as per ECM, or does GFS do it's own thing...

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I think this is the key point on GFS 18z, T132:

image.thumb.jpg.08079574de1b90d7dc8edce4cd36642a.jpg

What happens next,does the ridge move in as per GEM, does the trough dive in as per ECM, or does GFS do it's own thing...

Is it me mike or does this look way better already compared to the 12z ecm?

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes it's got that nose thing into the UK that wasn't there on the earlier run, T120 vs T126 on 12s

image.thumb.jpg.03d0f2981cc3c1643ead12a708ada405.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.23ee8136e16f890aacce2695cc55eb12.jpg

Meanwhile, how are our background signals doing?  Well AAM, as modelled by CFS looks like it's resurgent by mid month, looks a stronger signal all told than in recent days, that is a big positive:

image.thumb.jpg.a29e601f40c694c75a7a0a6b215366b4.jpg

With the warm sunny spell in May, the SSTs locally are now very warm:

image.thumb.jpg.0d92b1a2904101524450dadb8bb3dce7.jpg

And with that cold pool way out west, should, all other things being equal (and that is always the thing with uncertain systems) help drag the high pressures over us and to the east....as shown on  many of the 12z models, and increasingly so from yesterday, so summer is coming back, I would suggest....we will see....

Could be though that the higher than usual winds over the next few days might mix up the surface and even out the SSTs a bit!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me mike or does this look way better already compared to the 12z ecm?

Think it is probably better shaky!!!!  T162:

image.thumb.jpg.c72a2294fbbdbeaa0e794ee0e44fe62e.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Good to see the AAM climb back for mid-month in the CFSv2 model. GFS and ECM may have made similar corrections judging by today’s trend for the patterns N. Atlantic to Scandinavia.

The westward-advancing heat theme has been lurking in the ensembles for a couple of days and has gained footing today. Uncertainty abound as to how stable or not the situation is across the UK - aside from broadly less likely to be unstable in the north.

The typical response to AAM rising through neutral is to build ridging UK eastward so that may tend to relegate the troughs to mainland Europe - but not necessarily right away, could be that one makes some inroads next weekend only to retreat southward (the sort of thing GFS seems almost incapable of modelling in the extended range).

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS 18z at T198:

image.thumb.jpg.62a09d0ef9a6297a7f9edf7a76c357b1.jpg

Total continental feed now, so will it be mainly hot and dry or hot and thundery from here?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Slack very warm easterlies on pub run widespread European warmth like ECM 12z. The Scandinavian blocking might prove to be very important.

F4DBF8B1-BC29-4053-A1DE-FA53877C9F4E.thumb.png.e987afee3af1588054ca4fd167bd26c8.pngF0362EA9-EDC1-4668-9E4C-D0356DB9EB09.thumb.png.ab47b0f016dddab8add8c447ef34d6f6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Jesus and we thought ecm was great!!pretty much the whole of europe in heatwave territory on the 18z!!surely to good to be true and downgrades on the way tomorrow

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

If this run actually happened, this would be quite spectacular in mid June, GFS 18z, T258:

image.thumb.jpg.a701edffadb01b989d9f5f66bd7cfaf0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.582334ed5ebb9f2dc7192b90758b1391.jpg

Makes up for yesterday's 18z run, anyway!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Too much flip flopping from models at moment = extreme low confidence outside reliable ie 5 days.

I think that was more true two days ago than it is now, I think the models are converging on something, not yet sure what, but it isn't a 2007 style rain fest, more a hot spell, but I'm totally unsure whether hot and dry or hot and thundery....we will see....

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Looking at the near term, I noted that the weekend low is described as “developing and deepening” in the North Sea. 
Isn’t that unusual for the North Sea at any time, let alone June?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Well, well, well... where do I start?

Both the 12z and the 18z are exceptional GFS runs, the only thing is that the 18z is an outlier

To the perturbations, a few are showing 16c uppers across the UK, meaning that temps in excess of 27c+ could be possible

With lp out in the atlantic, this will help to drag warmer air from the continent, meaning not only will the temperatures increase - but the risk of thunderstorms too 

All of this is quite far away though - so lots to play for.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

I have a feeling the models have really overplayed the trough and unsettled week ahead and lead everyone down the dry garden path.  No way can we go from such dry and warm synoptic pattern into a really cold and wet prolonged autumnal pattern in just a matter of days.  May has been exceptional and something like that is not going to break away this quickly. 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well, well, well... where do I start?

Both the 12z and the 18z are exceptional GFS runs, the only thing is that the 18z is an outlier

To the perturbations, a few are showing 16c uppers across the UK, meaning that temps in excess of 27c+ could be possible

With lp out in the atlantic, this will help to drag warmer air from the continent, meaning not only will the temperatures increase - but the risk of thunderstorms too 

All of this is quite far away though - so lots to play for.

16c uppers = 27c?? not a chance. more likely 33c+ with 16c uppers in June and hopefully non of that north sea wind like last June. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Excellent runs this evening. It's getting better to look at. Still let's have a little caution going forward. Be more confident about next week after the weekend. Not 2 days ago charts were shocking for summer heat etc. It could all change by the morning. 

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