Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Glorious run from EC this evening...

Not to be a party pooper but nowhere near enough confidence to make a call on next week from my perspective..

Most certainly will change next run!!!but really good to look at for now!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,in winter

seriously though,you are right

 

Aye but miles more chance of E'lys now than Dec to Feb!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but miles more chance of E'lys now than Dec to Feb!

Dont set me off haha...

TBH easterlies in summer are very very rare too.

 

[LRD]

11 minutes ago, MATT said:

Come back Alderc all is forgiven.. What a stunner... I've just fell off the bed.. 

Fantastic summer charts. Hopefully heat and storms

But imagine if we had that pattern (if it comes off of course) in December/Jan or Feb...

Seems to me a lot depends on how the low near Greenland interacts with the low over Iceland at 120 - 144 hours on the ECM

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont set me off haha...

TBH easterlies in summer are very very rare too.

 

Aye July and August, June not so, but of course Mar to May easterlies common

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont set me off haha...

TBH easterlies in summer are very very rare too.

 

Are they? I don't think they're that uncommon in June. After June they are definitely rarer but a lot of our true hot spells come from SE winds which are not too far off.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Are they? I don't think they're that uncommon in June. After June they are definitely rarer but a lot of our true hot spells come from SE winds which are not too far off.

Well, perhaps kevin if he is viewing might offer a better insight as he is the God of statistics but i'm not sure easterlies are that common pretty much all year round nowadays but happy to be wrong.

 

[Daniel*]

EPS rolling out now appears more threatening with Icelandic low ridge also tucked further SW.

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

EPS rolling out now appears more threatening with Icelandic low ridge also tucked further SW.

Doesn't look any more threatening than the ECM op run did to be fair and look how that turned out.

But I agree that if that low behaves differently then it will result in very different, cool and wet charts

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all - had a few problems posting the charts last night so let's see if things are better as we see if the penguin suit will need an outing for Ascot:

The T+240 charts for GFS OP, Control, GEM and ECM

Some similarities with pressure high to the north and north east but low to the south or south west so a north-south split but not the usual variety. The best of the weather for Scotland and northern Britain with the south closer to the European trough and more at risk from showers or storms. The east coast may suffer from haar but elsewhere pleasantly warm and indeed humid.

GEM perhaps the best of the bunch but both GFS and ECM have some form of LP to the SW which may be good news further down the line for heat fans. The Atlantic is moribund.

All fits well with the ECM ensembles this morning which, by D11, had some sort of Scandi heights on all clusters (100%), with three variations of a trough to the SW; trough over Biscay (41%), trough next to SW England (41%) and trough over the UK (18%).

Even so, it just doesn't feel right to predict this type of pattern at D11 - I'd be more confident if things were zonal! 

[Daniel*]

T198 make your own mind up  

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

T198 make your own mind up  

I'll wait for it on Meteociel I think, if you aren't going to offer any interpretation!  It is hard enough teasing out the differences between different runs, without different graphics as well!  

[Leo97t]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

T198 make your own mind up  

both look very promising - not quite sure what you are looking for

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T120, T168, T240:

So for this suite it seems it all depends on where that trough from Iceland goes, but other op runs don't have it at all, so whilst this is supportive of the positive signal for warmer weather, much is still to be resolved tonight.  

Edited June 4, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

Here's the ECM mean from 96...

and ends as expected just like this mornings 00z with trough to the SW of the UK with a Scandinavian high building.

 

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

T198 make your own mind up  

 

But look at the difference from 2 days ago for the 10th June. Today’s chart is way less unsettled as the models start to get a handle on things. We’ve seen a marked change today too.
We know you’d like it to go the unsettled route because that’s what you’ve been advocating for a few days and nobody likes to be incorrect....but surely you can see the correction here?

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'll wait for it on Meteociel I think, if you aren't going to offer any interpretation!  It is hard enough teasing out the differences between different runs, without different graphics as well!  

There are a few days of nicer weather Monday-Thursday so that is similar to op but the Atlantic trough is not held back, the pressure patterns are quite different in Atlantic ridge more flat with EPS, whereas with op it is ridging more northeast linking with Scandinavian heights which helps keep trouble at bay, seems op went OTT with Scandi heights too.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

But look at the difference from 2 days ago for the 10th June. Today’s chart is way less unsettled as the models start to get a handle on things. We’ve seen a marked change today too.
We know you’d like it to go the unsettled route because that’s what you’ve been advocating for a few days and nobody likes to be incorrect....but surely you can see the correction here?

There’s no need for that I’m just reporting, why should I share? The EPS does agree with first half of next week being more settled and warmer, however longer term it is not so desirable.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Daniel*

[Man With Beard]

Spreads are useful while we wait for the clusters :

Dark blues = less variation from the mean, greens = greater variation from the mean. 

So it means : the mean chart for over Europe and South Scandi has decent agreement. However, the placement of the trough to our west is seriously up for grabs, anywhere from Wales back into the Mid-Atlantic 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Spreads are useful while we wait for the clusters :

Dark blues = less variation from the mean, greens = greater variation from the mean. 

So it means : the mean chart for over Europe and South Scandi has decent agreement. However, the placement of the trough to our west is seriously up for grabs, anywhere from Wales back into the Mid-Atlantic 

We had a long period through April and May where reliability was good in the 7 day range. We’re now in something more like what you’d expect when severe cold in on the doorstep in winter, when 3-4 days is about as far as you’d reliably like to make an accurate prediction. That’s quite a big green blob of uncertainty.

[Scorcher]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, perhaps kevin if he is viewing might offer a better insight as he is the God of statistics but i'm not sure easterlies are that common pretty much all year round nowadays but happy to be wrong.

 

This spell in 2007 stands out to me as a notable easterly period in June. Easterlies are definitely more frequent in spring that at any other time but they do happen in June at times as well.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM ens are out and the op is a warm-er outlier towards the end and pressure drops a little and probably from the trough setting up shop to our S/SW

latest cpc shows this...

still warm though as we would be on the right side of the trough pumping warm uppers from the SE but becoming more unsettled with perhaps showers/bands of rain and thunderstorms,i think it would be a perfect setup for most people,we have had a long warm dry spell,now i want to see some action

Edited June 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si
correction

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We had a long period through April and May where reliability was good in the 7 day range. We’re now in something more like what you’d expect when severe cold in on the doorstep in winter, when 3-4 days is about as far as you’d reliably like to make an accurate prediction. That’s quite a big green blob of uncertainty.

It is interesting in passing to note that the models are actually consistently more accurate in winter in the NH:

You can see it from the chart....it doesn't quite tie in with my experience of winter model watching, but maybe there is a difference between being more accurate for the more likely zonal scenarios, and less accurate for the less likely blocking ones that occur more rarely?  The ones we tend to look for?

In summer, it is much less clear cut, I think.  And if you then factor the data issues at the moment, it is maybe no surprise all the models are struggling with a pattern change.  

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

It is interesting in passing to note that the models are actually consistently more accurate in winter in the NH:

You can see it from the chart....it doesn't quite tie in with my experience of winter model watching, but maybe there is a difference between being more accurate for the more likely zonal scenarios, and less accurate for the less likely blocking ones that occur more rarely?  

In summer, it is much less clear cut, I think.  And if you then factor the data issues at the moment, it is maybe no surprise all the models are struggling with a pattern change.  

 

That's my understanding - the polar vortex actually increases the reliability in winter. Summer lacks such clear drivers. 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM ens are out and the op is a warm-er outlier towards the end and pressure drops a little and probably from the trough setting up shop to our S/SW

latest cpc shows this...

still warm though as we would be on the right side of the trough pumping warm uppers from the SE but becoming more unsettled with perhaps showers/bands of rain and thunderstorms,i think it would be a perfect setup for most people,we have had a long warm dry spell,now i want to see some action

That’s quite surprising on the pressure ensemble - I thought it’d be an outlier. It’s on the generous side, but not at the top or out of the bars. 00z will be fun tomorrow!