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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
5 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

You were saying mate?? Its best to follow a run throughout before making a final decision. 

ECM1-144.gif

He loves it to all go wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Wonderful at 168 hours!!high right through the uk!!ukmo odd one out tonight!!making the most of these cool showers over the next 2 days!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

E80733BB-D285-4564-A3D3-3E938D0A788D.thumb.png.ece4dd2e5fb2ca2a6b766c88a150afdc.png
 

Ridge hanging in there at day 7 - increasingly warmer too.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Perfect ECM at 168!

ECM1-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I think this one could still go downhill, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.ecd915baebfdd465e6149ba3b1a2fe1f.jpg

This was the question I raised with the GEM would this trough dive south from Iceland, and it didn't on that run.  I'm not expecting to like the last two frames of this one...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

High is till hanging in there at 192...

ECM1-192.gif

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5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

He loves it to all go wrong.

Yes the same few absolutely love commenting on poor output, each and every summer.

We've had a lovely 12z, a not-so-good UKMO and a decent ECM so far. Given the volatility in the output (remember recent GFS/ECM operationals?) I'd treat any warmer and drier runs with just as much caution and scepticism as the wet and horrible ones. FI about t+120/144 do we think? Lots of variables still in play with the extremes favoured when something in between is probably the form horse.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

No it's all good, it missed us:

image.thumb.jpg.40806cf03e2bc2b6e849075f2a860009.jpg

Could trigger some kind of plume event from here, T850s decent already

image.thumb.jpg.52f7902349460974998dec923063bffe.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Looks like a cut-off low developing at 216

This could have a potential of bringing more warmer air and the risk of thunderstorms to the UK

I do have a feeling this could change but we need to see what happens at 240...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think this one could still go downhill, T192:

image.thumb.jpg.ecd915baebfdd465e6149ba3b1a2fe1f.jpg

This was the question I raised with the GEM would this trough dive south from Iceland, and it didn't on that run.  I'm not expecting to like the last two frames of this one...

Probably irrelevant Mike, we are talking 9 days away, and the mean may have different ideas, as well as the 0z runs having a different take.. So much chopping and changing with these ops right now.. Yet GEM seems to be showing most consistency.. It still looks a marked improvement to me, and most definitely better than the current spell. We should remember what the pros say and not get to hung up on each and every operational run.. I think we have enough stress at present to deal with.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.ac057ce4a3811d0e2622c171d785f719.png

Did anyone expect a Scandi high and a very warm easterly at day 9? Cos I didn’t! What a run. Must be an outlier surely??

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all - had a few problems posting the charts last night so let's see if things are better as we see if the penguin suit will need an outing for Ascot:

The T+240 charts for GFS OP, Control, GEM and ECM

image.thumb.png.3d1c26c80f83c0c4dffcd0dc927602a0.pngimage.thumb.png.07386872824d14d6efb4eaf520a47719.pngimage.thumb.png.76c73061d2261082f22f8d4ef57498b2.pngimage.thumb.png.b428f8743669eeb1aa7ffedb7c12fe54.png

Some similarities with pressure high to the north and north east but low to the south or south west so a north-south split but not the usual variety. The best of the weather for Scotland and northern Britain with the south closer to the European trough and more at risk from showers or storms. The east coast may suffer from haar but elsewhere pleasantly warm and indeed humid.

GEM perhaps the best of the bunch but both GFS and ECM have some form of LP to the SW which may be good news further down the line for heat fans. The Atlantic is moribund.

Edited by stodge
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.ac057ce4a3811d0e2622c171d785f719.png

Did anyone expect a Scandi high and a very warm easterly at day 9? Cos I didn’t! What a run. Must be an outlier surely??

GEFS has been teasing the prospect of a very warm feed of air from the east for a few runs now  

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z ECM @240 

ECM1-240.gif

What a run the 12z ECM is. Could be a possible outlier but just in case if it isn't, we could be in for something special...

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Now you see a potential SE-diving Icelandic trough...

image.thumb.png.abf0fec22fe427fd15da3b613e5059a5.png

Now you don't...

image.thumb.png.ab1ee3fada255c1272ef660c82227fd1.png

And leads to this...

image.thumb.png.3524c835ec85daf53c7c05c2de50e2db.png

Surprising

image.thumb.png.b68e86cadfef9de8e3b6f78295a3d663.png

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Cracking run from the ECM 

and here at 240,lovely jubbly

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.ac5529d08e9c229c6a95a1d1585ccfab.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Come back Alderc all is forgiven.. What a stunner... I've just fell off the bed.. 

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

200-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Glorious run from EC this evening...

☀️

Not to be a party pooper but nowhere near enough confidence to make a call on next week from my perspective..

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm ties in almost perfect with temp plots....

@southern up flow into continental feed...where warmth can be gained as much as the former....

 

temp4 (5).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

High pressure from Russia all the way to the US. A "Trumputin" High?

image.thumb.png.904560cc2a58e746c55398814ae202b0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Easy folks, we’ve been led up the garden path many times!

Yes,in winter

seriously though,you are right

 

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