Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I've never seen such bad runs for summer - I find it almost alarming how calm people seem to be about it they are utterly depressing. If the GFS 18z came off 100mm and 15 hours of sun to mid month likely with a ave max of 16 ? The Greenland northern Russian high combo defo the pattern of death for summer. 

Fortunately I don't think this is the most likely scenario as I think the models are underplaying the build in fo the Azores initially so lets pray for some upgrades tomorrow

There is a relatively strong correlation between solar min summers and troughing situated over or close to the UK. It's why I was quite bullish about such a scenario back in Feb/March and why I touched on it in a post the other day. Between 2007-2010 we saw summers where slack LP often got 'stuck' over the UK for a length of time. Though it's pertinent to point out, whole summer seasons weren't written off. August 2007 was decent, for example (in an otherwise poor summer).

Edited June 3, 2020 by CreweCold

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is a relatively strong correlation between solar min summers and troughing situated over or close to the UK. It's why I was quite bullish about such a scenario back in Feb/March and why I touched on it in a post the other day. Between 2007-2010 we saw summers where slack LP often got 'stuck' over the UK for a length of time. Though it's pertinent to point out, whole summer seasons weren't written off. August 2007 was decent, for example (in an otherwise poor summer).

LOL. You're offering August 2007 as compensation for the poor summer you seem to want (every year).   

I think we should wait out this unsettled spell, at least, surely, until the models are painting a consistent picture and they certainly aren't at the moment.  Before drawing any conclusions that might look silly later.  Compare the GFS 18z with the GEM 12z for example, as an idea of the uncertainty.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

LOL. You're offering August 2007 as compensation for the poor summer you seem to want (every year).   

 

I prefer it cool in summer, yes. That doesn't mean I base my thoughts on my personal preference. I like severe cold in winter but I've rarely forecast that!

Pretty sure I advocated summer '18 to be a good one? In fact I clearly remember justifying my stance by saying ENSO neutral would support repeated Azores HP ridging?

Not entirely sure I deserve derision for merely pointing something out.

Edited June 3, 2020 by CreweCold

[Mike Poole]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I prefer it cool in summer, yes. That doesn't mean I base my thoughts on my personal preference. 

Pretty sure I advocated summer '18 to be a good one? In fact I clearly remember justifying my stance by saying ENSO neutral would support repeated Azores HP ridging?

Ha ha!  Not having a go at you CC, just venting frustrations on a weather forum at the total boredom that pervades every day due to the current crisis.  Why on earth would I be watching the GFS 18z in summer, otherwise.  Hope you are well mate.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Ha ha!  Not having a go at you CC, just venting frustrations on a weather forum at the total boredom that pervades every day due to the current crisis.  Why on earth would I be watching the GFS 18z in summer, otherwise.  Hope you are well mate.

It's all good mate! Don't worry, we'll see more fine weather this summer...I'm sure of it!

[Mike Poole]

All's well that ends well, GFS 18z T384:

Pinch of salt, obviously, but on to tomorrow's runs, and we do need to get some clarity on the story post T144....

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 18z is another dreadful run that i would take great pleasure in flushing down the bog. 
This year seems to have panned out a lot like 1990 and 1995 so i'm starting to think maybe this year will be different where the second half is better  1990 had an awful June and July but then a good August and we are long overdue a good August.   

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

All's well that ends well, GFS 18z T384:

Pinch of salt, obviously, but on to tomorrow's runs, and we do need to get some clarity on the story post T144....

Let's hope a return to this moves forward with time. I think we just need to sit out this reversal of the Earth's spin until normality resumes. Such an odd set of synoptics, especially for this time of year, which sadly are going to bring minimal meteorological interest and well suppressed temperatures.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I don't think we should get too hung up on one certain run. For example the gfs pub run(18z) looks to me as if we are in a spell that's very hard to predict. The 18z ensembles show enough promise to giveme confidence ofor a return to summery weather. If all members followed the op then maybe we could have some clarification going forward but this is simply not the case. 18z op is  defo on the lower side of the pack. And some members look tasty. My prediction is for the high out west to move in by late next week. I don't have much confidence on the trough scenario developing. My opinion so maybe wrong. Keep the faith fellow members. We are all in it together. 

[northwestsnow]

And the great GFS backtrack from the abysmal dreadful charts of the last couple of days is complete..

What a cruel model whipping the profits of doom into a frenzy ...

On a serious note UKMO a little more knife edge at 144 with the troublesome Icelandic low perhaps more inclined to dive SE towards the UK..

[sheikhy]

A much much improved gfs up to 200 hours!!more high pressure !!even ukmo dont look to bad!!make the most of whatever rain we get in the next 2 or 3 days lol because we could be waiting around for the next batch of rain according to the 00z gfs!!over to ecm....

 

[northwestsnow]

39 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

A much much improved gfs up to 200 hours!!more high pressure !!even ukmo dont look to bad!!make the most of whatever rain we get in the next 2 or 3 days lol because we could be waiting around for the next batch of rain according to the 00z gfs!!over to ecm....

 

Shaky !!!

Good to see you posting !!

I suspect GFS may still be top end of the suite as UKMO not quite as 'positive' at 144..

We will see.

[bluearmy]

Felt that yesterday’s 12z offered a broadly binary set of solutions re where a persistent lw trough sets up (Either to our sw or over us/slightly to our east) .  And yet the 00z thus far have taken us back to nowhere ......hoping the eps clusters will show further consistency when I catch up with them later in the day ....... not hopeful ....

[northwestsnow]

EC follows UKMO at 144...

Ideally would have gone with GFS but hey ho..

Edit still ok at 168, west is best perhaps.

Edited June 4, 2020 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

ECM comes in like a knight in shining armour at day 7 and says ‘Summer 2020 will not be a 2019 repeat!’

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mb018538 said:

ECM comes in like a knight in shining armour at day 7 and says ‘Summer 2020 will not be a 2019 repeat!’

Looks OK but the Icelandic low might still have a say day 8 onwards...

[Guest]

Well an generally improvement it seem this morning with some signs high pressure may ridge in a little more through the middle of next week. Ranking most positive @ T144 its GEM (clear winner this morning) GFS, ECM, UKMO & ICON bring up the rear. Whilst the GEM & ICON are miles apart they are ultimately just different evolutions of the same scenario so I guess anything is still possible. GFS ensembles suggest the Ridge-Trough(UK)-Ridge scenario later on is still a possibility but thankfully probably less likely although I can see ECM upto T192 and it looks as though it about to go horribly wrong - If I hadn't seen that chart this would have been a more positive post

[northwestsnow]

Well,absolutely no consistency from EC either so i guess all bets are off regarding next week at this juncture..

[Djdazzle]

Baby steps folks. Not bothered what ECM shows in the latter stages. Let’s see if the early improvements are continued in subsequent runs.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Baby steps folks. Not bothered what ECM shows in the latter stages. Let’s see if the early improvements are continued in subsequent runs.

I must confess i have little confidence in the NWP at the moment.

 

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I must confess i have little confidence in the NWP at the moment.

 

I said last night day 5 was about the limit at the moment. Looks that way again today. ECM is actually quite nice at day 10 with a warm continental feed for many.

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 00Z is, not surprisingly, not as bad as I was expecting; though it's nae great, by any stretch of the imagination:

    

    

    

    

    

And, as the GEFS 00Z ensembles show, the 00Z op is substantially cooler than the ensemble mean:

    

    

Mustn't grumble?

[Frosty.]

There’s a lot to like about the ECM 0z operational once we are through this vile little period because next week not only is there plenty of ridging bringing fine sunny spells, especially across southern u k, the uppers (850’s) also warm through nicely meaning most of us see a return to warm surface conditions, perhaps very warm further s / se!

[Djdazzle]

One positive on the 0z runs is that there is less support for a trough to become parked across the U.K.

[Djdazzle]

In fact, any rain (in the south) looks very hit and miss. Gone are the 100mm washout charts.