Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[Allseasons-Si]

Last one from me

from Blackpool last night

@Paul Sherman,i hope you catch a storm as the low sinks in the next few days

i was getting exited earlier as the storms crept further N/NW but they died out as they approached here,still i think there would be more opportunities esp Tuesday. 

[Supacell]

Absolute disappointment for me today, but it happens. Most I saw was torrential rain and was trapped inside the car for that so could not tell if there was any thunder. I think the worse part was missing the activity back at home. I am not too down though as plenty more chances this week.

As for tomorrow, with an almost identical set up to today you would think the distribution of showers would be similar. I expect they will be, but maybe more of a focus to the west of the Peak District into NW England than today. I am more excited by Tuesday as it looks like a day of widespread and slow moving thunderstorms.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Absolute disappointment for me today, but it happens. Most I saw was torrential rain and was trapped inside the car for that so could not tell if there was any thunder. I think the worse part was missing the activity back at home. I am not too down though as plenty more chances this week.

As for tomorrow, with an almost identical set up to today you would think the distribution of showers would be similar. I expect they will be, but maybe more of a focus to the west of the Peak District into NW England than today. I am more excited by Tuesday as it looks like a day of widespread and slow moving thunderstorms.

Yes,i am gutted too as it looked so promising for here

chin up as they say as like you say there is plenty more to come,

[staplehurst]

9 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Absolute disappointment for me today, but it happens. Most I saw was torrential rain and was trapped inside the car for that so could not tell if there was any thunder. I think the worse part was missing the activity back at home. I am not too down though as plenty more chances this week.

As for tomorrow, with an almost identical set up to today you would think the distribution of showers would be similar. I expect they will be, but maybe more of a focus to the west of the Peak District into NW England than today. I am more excited by Tuesday as it looks like a day of widespread and slow moving thunderstorms.

It's not very often in the UK can you brush one day under the carpet and look forward to the next one, let alone next two or three! Fingers crossed tomorrow is more fruitful, and failing that, as you say, activity looks more widespread on Tuesday and Wednesday 

[Zak M]

 

[whitty-southwest-uk]

Morning All, Hard one to determine wheres at most risk. I mean if i'm looking at it correctly id say Peterborough then NW from there right? Had another day off today so was looking at jumping in the car for another roadtrip but not sure where to head. Though if i did go id have to leave in the next couple hours but any advice welcome haha.

[Weather-history]

 

[davehsug]

What on earth's that, that's developed over the Welsh Marches? Atmosphere must be pretty ripe.

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, davehsug said:

What on earth's that, that's developed over the Welsh Marches? Atmosphere must be pretty ripe.

Models yesterday did hint that convection could start quite early across W/SW - how electrified they’ll be this early on will be interesting to see.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 15 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:44 UTC Mon 15 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low over the Southwest Approaches will meander slowly towards the Brest peninsula during Monday, but overall the upper pattern remains relatively unchanged through the forecast period with broad troughing dominating. The cold pool aloft atop warm, moist low-level air will lead to fairly widespread convection in response to diurnal heating. Given the lack of any noteworthy forcing aloft, the primary trigger will be from low-level convergence and orographic forcing, and so showers/thunderstorms will be primarily located over high ground or along convergence zones. Some mixing of the boundary layer is likely to occur once again across the south Midlands and southern England, resulting in a slight decrease in dewpoint temperatures. This area may also be a little cloudier due to an area of cloud and showery rain that may move inland from the English Channel during the morning hours, and this may also reduce surface temperatures a little - although the cloud should gradually break.

Surface dewpoints of 13-15C from East Anglia and the north Midlands northwards, with temperatures likely to peak around 20-23C, will yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are therefore most likely from north Wales - north Midlands - northern East Anglia northwards, and also scattered across northern and western Ireland. Shear is rather weak in the low-levels but does increase slightly nearer the cloud tops, but in general showers/storms will tend to pulse up, produce a few sporadic lightning strikes and then probably weaken, the outflow then potentially triggering daughter cells nearby. Slow storm motion of 15-20mph to the NW over England and Wales, or to the WSW over Ireland, and perhaps elements of shower-training will bring the risk of localised surface water flooding given PWAT 20-25mm. Low-level vorticity along convergence zones may also be ingested into updrafts to bring the risk of a weak tornado.

The SLGTs issued highlight the main focus for sporadic lightning through the day, but a few isolated strikes may occur elsewhere, such as the western Highlands, SW England and the Isle of Man. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly weaken during the evening hours, although there may be a relative uptick in activity in the London area / M4 corridor across the south Midlands into south/mid Wales during the evening and early part of the night, drifting to the northwest as a minor strip of mid-level positive vorticity approaches from the south. However, this will be occurring at a time when CAPE is gradually reducing as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences, and so while there may be an increase in showery precipitation the coverage of lightning is somewhat questionable.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-15

[Harry]

Whilst models have generally backed away from much of any rain here in the SE, the weather app by contrast has gone the other way - from 30-40% chance indicated yesterday, to 80-90% around 2pm today! Suffice to say there is literally not one cloud in the sky here at the moment. 

[matty40s]

49 minutes ago, davehsug said:

What on earth's that, that's developed over the Welsh Marches? Atmosphere must be pretty ripe.

Here's why, from Northamptonshire.

This stream of moisture is in a band all the way to the storm bottom right over Wales.....clear blur skies both sides.

[Paul Sherman]

Once again XC weather is the giveaway for storm chances today with dewpoints between 14-16c already noted in the far North West and a lot of Mid Wales northward. Values to the SE only around 10-11c so Orographic forcing really for these areas with lack of any lifting mechanisms. There does look to be converging winds that should set up later for areas of the East Midlands northwards for your shower risk due to Convergence zones and not heavily reliant on Orographic lift there.

More of the same for the SE dry and sunny maybe an odd light shower, jury is still out on wether a filament of PVA can set something off this evening west of London along the M4 Corridoor.

A decent bet for overnight lightning still looks to be Mid to West Wales where showers could continue until the early hours but unless your welsh you probably cant get in to view them # 2020

[Frosty hollows]

Some early morning instability here

[Jamie M]

Thought I'd make a graphic for the hell of it. Be interesting to see how far it verifies really. 

[ancientsolar]

SE Wales right now 

beautiful really , clouds already developing too 

 

[davehsug]

Currently overcast with low cloud here. Hoping it'll clear quickly.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Currently overcast with low cloud here. Hoping it'll clear quickly.

 

 

horrid sea mist, could linger all day in some areas

[alexisj9]

Sunny start here. 

[AMeltedFlake]

Only a 15% chance

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

41 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Thought I'd make a graphic for the hell of it. Be interesting to see how far it verifies really. 

What does the black signify? 100%?

[Rush2019]

Clear skies earlier, but now overcast, hills to the east have remained misty all morning, ( Buxton direction).  Garden thermometer nudging 18° and dew point 14.3 and rising, noticed Estofex have issued a forecast today, sorry can't do the link, have tried but tablet keeps saying my files are too big?  I'm off work this week, so will be sky and radar watching today, we'll see what happens.

[Josh Rubio]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What does the black signify? 100%?

If only! 0%/not expected to see anything. 

[ancientsolar]

little timelapse , seeing what's going on at this hour of the morning 

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Only a 15% chance

They've finally surfaced lol, wish they had better news.