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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

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Just now, PurpleLED said:

what if 10 day out gfs was accurate 

 

haha jk, unless......

ukcapeli.png

If only ?

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Surprised to see this to the NORTH of me about half an hour ago... Harrogate direction roughly. 20200614_195351.thumb.jpg.5a60af356881a4e16fa7be7f6d2915c5.jpg

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15 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:

what if 10 day out gfs was accurate 

 

haha jk, unless......

ukcapeli.png

I had to look at that twice,i thought that you zoomed into a storm cell lol.

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Just steady rain now as the cells slowly fade away.

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I can look out the window on most days and see that

I can't, well it seems I can't anyway with how things have been lately as nothing happens here ?

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56 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not so sure that would be the case. The likelihood of it appearing to explode, is that the updraft which provides the storms power probably would have still been over warm landmass. A sheared environment separated the downdraft (precip) from the updraft (no precip normally). It soon died down once the whole storm was out to sea. 

Also the reason for North Sea storms, is they are elevated, and are often associated with very rich plumes and EML’s, so despite the surface temp being cold, the EML can still provide the CAPE to fuel the updraft. That’s my take on it anyway. 

It’s a fair explanation. Cheers ? 

how come the storms seem to get more vicious as they leave EA on many occasions. They reach the sea and either maintain strength or get more powerful. Surely that’s not just the MLCAPE or otherwise it would just stay the same.

I want to know what the channel is doing wrong - it never happens there ?

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Nottingham cell

87C3C2C0-2AD1-4CA7-A2BE-C9D3A2D9C0EC.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Nottingham cell

87C3C2C0-2AD1-4CA7-A2BE-C9D3A2D9C0EC.jpeg

Surprised it has lasted this long! With light to moderate rain over us now from a decayed storm, no chance seeing it on the horizon yet. This stuff overhead needs to clear!

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Tomorrow is a slap on the face for anyone in the south. Not sure why it matters as our forecasts are always wrong anyway ?‍♂️

If Tuesday-Thursday fails to deliver anything, 'gutted' will be putting it lightly for me!

Edited by Lance M

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3 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Surprised it has lasted this long! With light to moderate rain over us now from a decayed storm, no chance seeing it on the horizon yet. This stuff overhead needs to clear!

Worth keeping an eye on. Seems to eating it's weetabix and getting strength from somewhere.

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Gone all flat. Brings into question why did yesterday suddenly take off late in the day but today it was the opposite?

 

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7 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Surprised it has lasted this long! With light to moderate rain over us now from a decayed storm, no chance seeing it on the horizon yet. This stuff overhead needs to clear!

 

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Worth keeping an eye on. Seems to eating it's weetabix and getting strength from somewhere.

Died off now unfortunately 

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Gone all flat. Brings into question why did yesterday suddenly take off late in the day but today it was the opposite?

 

that's a good question,maybe still too early yet for nocturnal cooling to take effect.

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Posted (edited)

Well I finally managed to get there in the end!

I was busy this morning and I finished editing it around the late afternoon, but completely forgot to upload! :olddoh:

So here it is - a video of the distant lightning I was able to see, along with some timelapses I managed to throw in from yesterday. Apologies for the quality in some of the timelapses, some of them had rendering issues so I had to import them in a different way.

Best timelapse I have captured so far this year is 2:06 onwards. It was a storm that developed to the west of Northampton and travelled as far as Birmingham.

Edit: How the hell did @Ryukai's image appear in my post when I was editing it??

Edited by Zak M
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Least we finished on a nice looking Sunset up here ?

IMG_20200614_212410533.thumb.jpg.2083412409a8f2a012560772e71bacbc.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

From last night over Merseyside.

 

It was a great night, the best I’ve seen in years here.

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50 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:

what if 10 day out gfs was accurate 

 

haha jk, unless......

ukcapeli.png

10 days out with the models being the way they have been lately? ?

Nice to see a prospect for our first plume of 2020 ??

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Yep absolute carbon copy of today coming up tomorrow and rough for areas of the South and South East.

Storms may fire a little closer to London along the Chilterns as the southern extent but this all moving and maturing to the NW again. Dry for the TOD and COS and also Kent and Eastern Suffolk and Lincs. Severest storms once again West Wales, and North West England and parts of Ireland.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s a fair explanation. Cheers ? 

how come the storms seem to get more vicious as they leave EA on many occasions. They reach the sea and either maintain strength or get more powerful. Surely that’s not just the MLCAPE or otherwise it would just stay the same.

I want to know what the channel is doing wrong - it never happens there ?

I believe they, along with the trough always engage with the Warmer and juicier Theta E and W airmass, which usually happens further East, as that’s where they mostly tend to be located. All relative to the big continental landmass that makes them! 

It’s often why storms said by a few in here always seem to ‘explode’ North of the M25 or M4 too. Basically the further East you go, you get a higher chance of seeing proper plume type storms. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Edit: How the hell did @Ryukai's image appear in my post when I was editing it??

I've had that happen to me before o_O, The Sites getting it's wires crossed somewhere ?

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