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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

    Thunder here just after seven. All IC, clearly crawlers as you could hear the rumbles moving across the sky. One large CG about 19:30 though that scared the dogs ?

    Looks like there is a squall line developing off Berwick at the mo that is heading South.....

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    A quick recap of my day, without getting too waffly. It has been an absolute classic and my favourite/most successful chase so far. - started fairly benign as I failed to get a good handle on the

    100% Bonafide Supercell no doubting that whatsoever 35knts of flow, Moved right of the deviant steering flow Killed off anything that came near it Like most Supercells massive uptick in

    Nice little thunderstorm finally drought is over!  London webcams: I grabbed this!!! 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

    ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.

    Numerous scattered showers are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas and times, in an environment with 20-30kts deep layer speed shear on the western/southwestern flank of the upper low. Forecast profiles suggest convection could potentially reach up to 23,000ft (ELTs -40C) in places, deeper than on Friday, with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, some sporadic lightning seems quite likely, especially with any cells that can become semi-organised. Gusts of 40-45mph may be possible with the strongest cells, with some hail also likely. Activity will gradually weaken during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides, although overnight some weak elevated instability may evolve over NW England into the Midlands, on the western flank of the broad area of rain along the returning occlusion - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-06

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

    ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.

    Numerous scattered showers are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas and times, in an environment with 20-30kts deep layer speed shear on the western/southwestern flank of the upper low. Forecast profiles suggest convection could potentially reach up to 23,000ft (ELTs -40C) in places, deeper than on Friday, with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, some sporadic lightning seems quite likely, especially with any cells that can become semi-organised. Gusts of 40-45mph may be possible with the strongest cells, with some hail also likely. Activity will gradually weaken during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides, although overnight some weak elevated instability may evolve over NW England into the Midlands, on the western flank of the broad area of rain along the returning occlusion - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-06

    Another thundery day for Eastern parts tomorrow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

    ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.

    Numerous scattered showers are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas and times, in an environment with 20-30kts deep layer speed shear on the western/southwestern flank of the upper low. Forecast profiles suggest convection could potentially reach up to 23,000ft (ELTs -40C) in places, deeper than on Friday, with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, some sporadic lightning seems quite likely, especially with any cells that can become semi-organised. Gusts of 40-45mph may be possible with the strongest cells, with some hail also likely. Activity will gradually weaken during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides, although overnight some weak elevated instability may evolve over NW England into the Midlands, on the western flank of the broad area of rain along the returning occlusion - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-06

    Oioi!!!! Might get my first rumble of 2020 tomorrow ?

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    46 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

    Thunder here just after seven. All IC, clearly crawlers as you could hear the rumbles moving across the sky. One large CG about 19:30 though that scared the dogs ?

    Looks like there is a squall line developing off Berwick at the mo that is heading South.....

    and a big squall line at that 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    A nice sunset shower to my SW earlier

    DSC02852.thumb.JPG.d8aac71fb8630eb94260bbf9c134a155.JPGDSC02853.thumb.JPG.89fa52de775875f4455018339cfd78e0.JPG

    tomorrow looks even better than today's,so we are creeping up slightly with the potential,and still looking good for later next week/weekend(as it stands)

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    Sferics in the north sea, off the essex coast heading towards east anglia according to blitzy, nothing on net weather radar though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

    Sferics in the north sea, off the essex coast heading towards east anglia according to blitzy, nothing on net weather radar though.

    Hi

    that storm isn't heading for east Anglia as the storm is pulling away to the east towards  Holland/Belgium border.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
    5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

    That must be the Mississippi MCS I take it

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

     

    BD2224C4-1100-4725-9E11-A03ED7D83CEF.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

    Put your telescope away Zak:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Lol I must be the closest to that storm due east of me and even I cant see the lightning - Pmsl

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Lol I must be the closest to that storm due east of me and even I cant see the lightning - Pmsl

    Is it cloudier where you are Paul?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Is it cloudier where you are Paul?

    Clear Skies above but cloudy out east - Have a clear view towards Holland and Belgium from here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    27 minutes ago, Zak M said:

     

    BD2224C4-1100-4725-9E11-A03ED7D83CEF.png

    How the hell are you always seeing everything? Do you have to ability to fly or something? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL

    I could also see the lightening from here, plus the lights of Dunkirk and north coast towns of Belgium  ?

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    on the Deal, Kent webcam once it pans round...damn that moon is that bright

     

    social873.jpg
    WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

    View of Deal's seafront promenade and Pier from the Waterfront Hotel

     

    Another decent webcam for future storms has been added with this Whitstable one on the north Kent coast

    social1219.jpg
    WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

    View of Whitstable Beach in Kent

     

    Edited by OddSpot
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Clear Skies above but cloudy out east - Have a clear view towards Holland and Belgium from here. 

    Didn't bother to check this forum whilst it was going on. It was clear to my E too. My luck really.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    That's really getting going now it's crossed the North Sea. Bet it wouldn't do the same if it was going the other way. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    7 minutes ago, matt111 said:

    That's really getting going now it's crossed the North Sea. Bet it wouldn't do the same if it was going the other way. 

    We will find out next week:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 hour ago, Jamiee said:

    How the hell are you always seeing everything? Do you have to ability to fly or something? 

    978.thumb.jpg.b05777e694a297b5a22c17a45830f9dc.jpg

    Jokes aside, just blame the hill that I live on :oldlaugh:

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire

    Hoping it's my turn today. So far no signs, tho. Dull and breezy atm. Need some cloud breaks and a little insolation.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Looks to be a decent chance of some heavy showers and thunderstorms today, especially across Central and Eastern England. CAPE starts to build during the morning as skies clear behind the rain band currently moving southwards and shifts south through the afternoon. Highest CAPE value look to occur over the southern and eastern Midlands southeastwards, with an increase as the afternoon wears on. This would seem to indicate the highest risk of storm being somewhere from approx Nottingham/Leicester southwards across the south-east Midlands and then the Home Counties, East Anglia and SE England.

    nmmgif_pl.thumb.gif.6df32566d28aaf63a0e831d59512f8f1.gif

    Precipitation charts show arcs of heavy showers moving southwards. With increasing lapse rates and CAPE values in the region of 300-700j/kg it would be expected that some of these showers would turn thundery. Deep layer shear in the region of 10-20m/s could allow for some organisation of storms.

    nmmgif_pl.thumb.gif.6ffecb531f5cc7c38a97fccaf338595c.gif

    The above charts are the Netweather Extra NMM charts. The Euro4 shows a very similar distribution of showers.

    Any storms that do develop are going to be moving quickly and so rainfall totals are unlikely to be particularly high, but if under one it could briefly produce strong convective wind gusts, torrential rainfall, small hail and lightning. Storms are more likely to occur today than yesterday in my opinion, and as some people saw storms yesterday it appears likely that somebody will see a storm today (but most will miss them).

    With my storm chasing head on I would say that today will be a hard day for chasing, due to the fast movement of storms, but if you can place yourself ahead of a storm arc and wait for the storm to come to you then it could pay off. Added to this there could be some nice cloud scapes out there this afternoon.

    Edited by Supacell
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