Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[ChezWeather]

Coming back down the M1 last night around Barnsley/Sheffield area, could see distant lightning in the cloud tops which must have been from that storm near Liverpool, ~50 miles away!

[Nick F]

Netweather's Thunderstorm Outlook for today:

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 14 JUNE 2020

Issued 2020-06-14 09:07:29
Valid: 14/06/2020 0600 - 15/06/2020 0600

Forecast Details

Upper low and collocated surface low will be slow moving and start to fill close to the SW of Britain on Sunday. A slack warm and moist surface airmass will reside across much of Britain, with surface heating in sunshine steepening lapse rates to build 300-700 j/kg CAPE during peak heating this afternoon inland.

With slack surface pressure and surface heating causing lowering pressure inland compared to sea - convergence zones will develop inland, these mostly likely: 1. Across central areas of England where southerly flow in the south meets east/southeasterly breeze inland across central arreas; 2. onshore breezes in coastal areas of the west of England, Wales and western Scotland move inland against synoptic E or SE flow; 3. Similarly across Ireland/ N. Ireland - breeze convergence zones will develop just inland from west coast against synoptic E/SE flow. 

These convergence zones combined locally with orographic lift of hillier areas in the north and west will serve to create lift which will release the low-level instability, which will in turn allow development of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, which will track NW. Hail and localised flooding are possible with any storms. Funnel clouds or even a brief weak tornado can't be ruled out with stronger updrafts ingested into storms which rotate along convergence zones.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited June 14, 2020 by Nick F

[Ryukai]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Netweather's Thunderstorm Outlook for today:

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

...

*Hubs hands together in gleeful anticipation*

[Methuselah]

That's the clearest example of the Cone of Silence and the Triangle of Doom, I've seen for ages!

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Anyone noticed with yesturday today and tomorrow the forecast on the met office getting it wrong however the rainfall forecast map has been getting it much better at being accurate why is is the rainfall forecast not having an impact on the actual forecast?

[Paul Sherman]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

That's the clearest example of the Cone of Silence and the Triangle of Doom, I've seen for ages!

 The Models even factor it into the Suite when they start running now. Amazingly dung areas to live if you like Severe Weather but guess thats why we are the driest as well year on year.

Looking ahead to the week coming up and plenty of action all the way through to next weekend.

IMBY Forecast and Including the TOD Does not look great for much during the daytime as showers seem to form on lines of convergence and move North or North West most of the week so its the Midlands, Wales, NW England and Western Side of Uk that looks set to see torrential downpours. Coastal Areas look quite dry actually which includes Yorks/Liincs/Norflok/Suffolk/Essex/Kent/Sussex/Hants etc 

I glimmer of hope to get excited about could be Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning when an overnight MCS could be moving from East to West from Benelux. Expect masses of Lightning around Bruge / Calais with this and a wet mess as it approaches the Uk

Enjoy in all the favoured areas

[Ryukai]

Cloud base is much higher today than yesterday here, so the cumulus are ALOT flatter and more spread out. Can see some breaks beginning to form in it though with the occasional glimpse of sunlight.  Temps are a degree or so lower than they were at this time yesterday but the humidity is much higher at just over 85%.  (probably due to the passing shower just over an hour ago.)

[Zak M]

Quite a few beefy showers popping already, south of Worcester especially.

[Zak M]

Just looked out of the window and there is some nice cumulus to my NW

Feels much more humid than yesterday too

Edited June 14, 2020 by Zak M

[Dami]

Fair weather cloud, @Zak M

[Ryukai]

Tried to take a pic of that storm passing to the SW (heading towards Crewe) had to mess with the colors as everything low to the horizon just looks like a blinding milky white mess due to the moisture haze. Much thicker than the flattish high cumulus, there's also some small puffy ones beginning to form beneath the higher stuff too.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

35 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just looked out of the window and this is to my NW

Feels much more humid than yesterday too

Well it’s a lovely garden but I don’t see what that’s got to do with the weather

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone. 

After last nights storms there is a lot of grey crud about this morning but the sun is trying to break through. Where it’s breaking through I can see signs of convection starting to get going. 

... It also feels much more humid than yesterday as well.

As always, good luck to everyone with this today. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I see can’t-be-arsESTOFEX haven’t posted again... frustrating - I’d love to know what they think about the evolution of storms over mainland France this afternoon

[Ryukai]

10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I see can’t-be-arsESTOFEX haven’t posted again... frustrating - I’d love to know what they think about the evolution of storms over mainland France this afternoon

I can't even get their website to load, tried different browsers but just keep getting 'cannot connect' 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I know the south is under a low risk but I’m clutching those straws so tight I’ve got sore wrists

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Ryukai said:

I can't even get their website to load, tried different browsers but just keep getting 'cannot connect' 

Oh yeah me too

[Supacell]

I am planning to stay at home today but have petrol in the car ready incase I need to take a drive out.  I need to remember that Belper does tend to miss out on storms where someone 5 miles away gets hammered, so not going to be so bold as to say I won't chase.

Currently still fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times, so not very promising if I am honest. Awaiting the Euro4 6z update as it was spot on again yesterday.

[Herefordweather]

Just got caught in the downpour between Leominster and Worcester. Few rumbles of thunder and torrential rain. Definitely feels thundery with further downpours developing.

[mike5900]

Clouds building here. 

[Ryukai]

Stitched together some photos I've just taken of the storm scraping by me to the SW.  Is that an attempt at an anvil in the distance? or just stretched out high level cumulus 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Ryukai

[ancientsolar]

15 minutes ago, Herefordweather said:

Just got caught in the downpour between Leominster and Worcester. Few rumbles of thunder and torrential rain. Definitely feels thundery with further downpours developing.

Nothing showing up on Blitzortung hmmm 

[shogan83]

Not sure what I’ll get here in Northants today buts it’s really warm and muggy out and some beautiful clouds brewing away 

[cheshire snow]

24 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am planning to stay at home today but have petrol in the car ready incase I need to take a drive out.  I need to remember that Belper does tend to miss out on storms where someone 5 miles away gets hammered, so not going to be so bold as to say I won't chase.

Currently still fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times, so not very promising if I am honest. Awaiting the Euro4 6z update as it was spot on again yesterday.

You are welcome to set up camp at my house if last nights storm is anything to go by it will be an interesting day

C.S

[ancientsolar]

The sun has just come out in SE Wales, let the warming begin!