Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[ancientsolar]

ok, I have set up my stream, hoepfully it's all working properly and smooth! (no sound (( may add sound if storm starts )) - please ignore the thumbnail! that's from a very old Video and old camera ((which I sitll use for observing the moon)

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by ancientsolar

[Paul Sherman]

From the Various pictures I have seen from people dotted around the country the atmosphere is very capped at the moment

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

From the Various pictures I have seen from people dotted around the country the atmosphere is very capped at the moment

Yeah we will be waiting a fair few hours until something starts I think

[Azazel]

Some vertical development now and even a smidge of pileus. 

[philglossop]

30 minutes ago, whitty-southwest-uk said:

Plymouth as of 1358

Top of Weston Mill hill /Devonport junction on A38. 

 

Here in Laira towards Saltram it's probably worse with cloud cover

[toggerob]

According to the Manchester Evening News "The Met Office has issued an immediate thunderstorm warning for Greater Manchester and large parts of the north west. The 'yellow alert' is in place between now and 7pm."

Met Office issues immediate thunderstorm alert for Greater Manchester - Manchester Evening News

WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK

---

The Met Office website warns that some damage to a few buildings and structures from lightning strikes is possible.

 

[Chris.R]

No sign of anything yet, still good insolation, 23.9°C.

[Allseasons-Si]

A lot of fair weather cloud pics being posted on here today,boy we are getting desperate aren't we

Edited June 13, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

A lot of fair weather cloud pics being posted on here today,boy we are desperate aren't we

Afraid so. Germany is where it is all at today. Particularly the Berlin area. Nature is having a pyro party there! 

[Ryukai]

Got this vicious looking cloud coming over now (first one is discolored due to sunlight + old phone camera) pics all overlap each other slightly.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

According to the Manchester Evening News "The Met Office has issued an immediate thunderstorm warning for Greater Manchester and large parts of the north west. The 'yellow alert' is in place between now and 7pm."

Met Office issues immediate thunderstorm alert for Greater Manchester - Manchester Evening News

WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK

---

The Met Office website warns that some damage to a few buildings and structures from lightning strikes is possible.

 

What are Mancunian buildings made from these days that they can’t withstand no lightning?

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

A lot of fair weather cloud pics being posted on here today,boy we are desperate aren't we

LOL it was clear here before something happened, so I was letting people know conditions were starting to change. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Cherbourg is going off like a candle

[mike5900]

30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmmm just wondering if its worth a little trip up into north west Dorset!! Maybe a chance of storm. 

Maybe looking good. 

[ItIsGee]

17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

From the Various pictures I have seen from people dotted around the country the atmosphere is very capped at the moment

had stuff bubble up over the last hour ut its been beated abck down again, 

nothing is smashing through it yet......

 

nice CU field developing from cheshire gap SE back towards E Anglia some tops showing through on SAt24 but  seems to have been batted down again.

[Argyle10]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Cherbourg is going off like a candle

Is it? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Charlie Harnett said:

Is it? 

[Chris Lea-Alex]

27 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

From the Various pictures I have seen from people dotted around the country the atmosphere is very capped at the moment

This one is wallington, Sutton. Feels benign

Edited June 13, 2020 by Chris Lea-Alex

[AWD]

17 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Top of Weston Mill hill /Devonport junction on A38. 

 

Here in Laira towards Saltram it's probably worse with cloud cover

I’ll give ya a “toot” when I next work down that way.  

[Dangerous55019]

Towers going up to my north east, skies starting to darken to my south. 

[staplehurst]

As expected, surface dewpoints have mixed out through the day across the Midlands, East Anglia and southern England, with values now between 9-11C (even as low as 6C at High Wycombe with some elevation). 12z soundings from both Nottingham (right) and Herstmonceux (left) (below, adjusted for typical surface temperature / dewpoint values over northern England and southern England respectively) both convect freely once temperatures reach or exceed 20C in southern areas, and 18C in northern England. However, the air is very dry through most of the profile and there are subtle hints of a slight warm nose at ~600mb (as expected), and it is quite likely, as we have seen so far, cumulus clouds continue to attempt to grow but mix out in the dry air aloft. Soundings also yield 800 J/kg CAPE at Nottingham with 23kts storm layer shear, and 600 J/kg CAPE with 33kts storm layer shear at Herstmonceux.

Essentially, the greatest instability currently lies over NW England and the far north of Wales where dewpoints remain 12-14C. However, the very dry profiles and the lack of any significant upper level support is significantly affecting the ability for deeper convection to develop. In the absence of largescale forcing, we are therefore heavily reliant on both low-level (sea breeze) convergence and/or upslope orographic forcing to providing a lifting mechanism.

Meanwhile, the upper low near the Brest peninsula continues to nudge northwards towards Cornwall, with lobes of PV rotating around it - this is aiding deeper convection in the vicinity of the Channel Islands right now. As this advances closer to southern England this afternoon, there will be a gradual increase in positive vorticity aloft (encouraging lift) which is likely to coincide with a moistening of the boundary layer as diurnal heating wanes and surface dewpoints begin to creep back up to 12-14C. Surface winds will also ease during the evening, allowing a corridor of low-level convergence and moisture pooling to evolve from SE England through London and the south Midlands. Consequently it seems plausible that deeper convection will develop into the evening hours, with scattered thunderstorms evolving - perhaps initially surface-based before eventually become elevated as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer continues. This activity may persist until late evening in places before gradually weakening.

There may also be a couple of isolated thunderstorms that may eventually develop over NW England this evening,

Edited June 13, 2020 by staplehurst

[Chris.R]

A little interested  in later tonight as well. Might catch the northern edge of anything elevated coming up through the Midlands.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

As expected, surface dewpoints have mixed out through the day across the Midlands, East Anglia and southern England, with values now between 9-11C (even as low as 6C at High Wycombe with some elevation). 12z soundings from both Nottingham (right) and Herstmonceux (left) (below, adjusted for typical surface temperature / dewpoint values over northern England and southern England respectively) both convect freely with once temperatures reach or exceed 20C in southern areas, and 18C in northern England. However, the air is very dry through most of the profile and there are subtle hints of a slight warm nose at ~600mb (as expected), and it is quite likely, as we have seen so far, cumulus clouds continue to attempt to grow but mix out in the dry air aloft. Soundings also yield 800 J/kg CAPE at Nottingham with 26kts storm layer shear, and 600 J/kg CAPE with 33kts storm layer shear at Herstmonceux.

Essentially, the greatest instability currently lies over NW England and the far north of Wales where dewpoints remain 12-14C. However, the very dry profiles and the lack of any significant upper level support is significantly affecting the ability for deeper convection to develop. In the absence of largescale forcing, we are therefore heavily reliant on both low-level (sea breeze) convergence and/or upslope orographic forcing to providing a lifting mechanism.

Meanwhile, the upper low near the Brest peninsula continues to nudge northwards towards Cornwall, with lobes of PVA rotating around it - this is aiding deeper convection in the vicinity of the Channel Islands right now. As this advances closer to southern England this afternoon, there will be a gradual increase in positive vorticity aloft (encouraging lift) which is likely to coincide with a moistening of the boundary layer as diurnal heating wanes and surface dewpoints begin to creep back up to 12-14C. Surface winds will also ease during the evening, allowing a corridor of low-level convergence and moisture pooling to evolve from SE England through London and the south Midlands. Consequently it seems plausible that deeper convection will develop into the evening hours, with scattered thunderstorms evolving - perhaps initially surface-based before eventually become elevated as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer continues. This activity may persist until late evening in places before gradually weakening.

There may also be a couple of isolated thunderstorms that may eventually develop over NW England this evening,

Fantastic synop mate

And just what I wanted to hear re: the south

[Chris.R]

DP is 12.9 here and stable.

[Zak M]

7 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

As expected, surface dewpoints have mixed out through the day across the Midlands, East Anglia and southern England, with values now between 9-11C (even as low as 6C at High Wycombe with some elevation). 12z soundings from both Nottingham (right) and Herstmonceux (left) (below, adjusted for typical surface temperature / dewpoint values over northern England and southern England respectively) both convect freely once temperatures reach or exceed 20C in southern areas, and 18C in northern England. However, the air is very dry through most of the profile and there are subtle hints of a slight warm nose at ~600mb (as expected), and it is quite likely, as we have seen so far, cumulus clouds continue to attempt to grow but mix out in the dry air aloft. Soundings also yield 800 J/kg CAPE at Nottingham with 23kts storm layer shear, and 600 J/kg CAPE with 33kts storm layer shear at Herstmonceux.

Essentially, the greatest instability currently lies over NW England and the far north of Wales where dewpoints remain 12-14C. However, the very dry profiles and the lack of any significant upper level support is significantly affecting the ability for deeper convection to develop. In the absence of largescale forcing, we are therefore heavily reliant on both low-level (sea breeze) convergence and/or upslope orographic forcing to providing a lifting mechanism.

Meanwhile, the upper low near the Brest peninsula continues to nudge northwards towards Cornwall, with lobes of PV rotating around it - this is aiding deeper convection in the vicinity of the Channel Islands right now. As this advances closer to southern England this afternoon, there will be a gradual increase in positive vorticity aloft (encouraging lift) which is likely to coincide with a moistening of the boundary layer as diurnal heating wanes and surface dewpoints begin to creep back up to 12-14C. Surface winds will also ease during the evening, allowing a corridor of low-level convergence and moisture pooling to evolve from SE England through London and the south Midlands. Consequently it seems plausible that deeper convection will develop into the evening hours, with scattered thunderstorms evolving - perhaps initially surface-based before eventually become elevated as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer continues. This activity may persist until late evening in places before gradually weakening.

There may also be a couple of isolated thunderstorms that may eventually develop over NW England this evening,

Superb analysis Dan, they are always welcome in situations like this!