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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    23 minutes ago, jake44 said:

    hmmmm my alexa says thunderstorm tonight for ramsgate could the thunderstorms in france head our way ??

    No chance I'm afraid. Those storms are miles away and the upper flow is from the north.

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    A quick recap of my day, without getting too waffly. It has been an absolute classic and my favourite/most successful chase so far. - started fairly benign as I failed to get a good handle on the

    100% Bonafide Supercell no doubting that whatsoever 35knts of flow, Moved right of the deviant steering flow Killed off anything that came near it Like most Supercells massive uptick in

    Nice little thunderstorm finally drought is over!  London webcams: I grabbed this!!! 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Camelford, North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells, snow, thunder snow, tornadoes
  • Location: Camelford, North Cornwall
    1 hour ago, jake44 said:

    hmmmm my alexa says thunderstorm tonight for ramsgate could the thunderstorms in france head our way ??

    Mine does to reckon it just says It for the whole UK? Or will it happen

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
    17 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

    Mine does to reckon it just says It for the whole UK? Or will it happen

    I wouldn't trust the auto generated weather from the apps.  You'll get to the time it says lightning and it suddenly change to drizzle or something

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull
    1 minute ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

    I wouldn't trust the auto generated weather from the apps.  You'll get to the time it says lightning and it suddenly change to drizzle or something

    Absolutely do not trust Alexa for specific weather  forecasts. I don’t know what algorithms feed it but it seems to pick up on the smallest chance from one forecast model and run with it. It also doesn’t seem to get updated as often as your phone app forecasts which are also rubbish. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    1 hour ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

    I wouldn't trust the auto generated weather from the apps.  You'll get to the time it says lightning and it suddenly change to drizzle or something

    Google is good. It literally will tell you if you are currently experiencing a thunderstorm. Quite useful

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    9 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Google is good. It literally will tell you if you are currently experiencing a thunderstorm. Quite useful

    I've heard Windows can be good for that too!

     

    I'll get my coat. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
    5 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    I've heard Windows can be good for that too!

     

    I'll get my coat. ?

    Brilliant!!!! ?

    In storm news, there is none. GFS offering almost nothing for the next fortnight, seemingly intent on keeping us under dull cool and convection free dreariness. ECM a bit better but not resembling anything of what it did a day or two ago. On the plus side, models really struggling at the moment so perhaps a sudden short notice plume may realise at some point...

    This was my expression a short while ago when I stepped outside into cloudy cool and breezy weather and realised, after 2 months of pretty much wall to wall sunshine, that I don’t in fact live in the Mediterranean ?

    660E0790-BF8D-4B45-9C5C-4CB1890FF210.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

    "lightning is likely to be at a premium" - Dan

    "Diurnal Disappointment" - The Sun

    "HP Supercell to batter Brits" - The Express

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 04 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

    ISSUED 20:04 UTC Wed 03 Jun 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Negatively-tilted upper trough over the North Sea will continue to strengthen through the forecast period, with mid/upper levels continuing to cool. This places the British Isles on the rear side of the trough for Thursday, with a strong northwesterly flow aloft. Early showery rain will clear East Anglia and SE England, although some will persist over western Ireland. There may be quite a bit of cloud around at times, but some sunny spells are likely and any low-level cloud will be subject to convective overturning courtesy of the strong June sunshine. Diurnal heating will yield 100-400 J/kg CAPE, with numerous showers likely to develop, becoming more widespread by the afternoon hours. Convective depth will be rather restricted for most of the day, generally below 600mb (ELTs -10C), but may increase a little towards evening. Showers will be particularly focussed along a pronounced convergence zone which is likely to develop from W / SW Scotland down across N England towards East Anglia. Some complications exist, as showers could grow upscale into an area of showery rain potentially as a small surface low develops. The steering flow will be NNW-SSE initially, but as the winds aloft gradually back through the afternoon then the motion of showers may eventually turn more NW-SE. Speed shear will gradually increase through the day, perhaps reaching 20-30kts through the cloud-bearing layer by evening. Overall any lightning is likely to be at a premium, generally isolated and most areas will remain void of such activity on Thursday. Overnight, the focus for the heaviest showers will shift to western and northwestern Britain.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-04

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GFS is showing a thunderstorm imported from France on day 9, will it happen? Probably not.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    14 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z GFS is showing a thunderstorm imported from France on day 9, will it happen? Probably not.

    Of course it won’t. When does it? :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    30 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

    Looking east 

    Screenshot_20200604_172800.jpg

    Had a similar view to the west here earlier but nothing happened and there haven’t been any showers nearby at all today. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Sferic to the NW of Peterborough.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Quite a thundery GFS run with the 12z with plenty of Cape around 13th June. Though still too early

     

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    When I saw that on the radar I didn't think much of it but that picture makes it look a lot more impressive than the radar would make you believe. 

    Edited by matt111
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    57 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

    Beautiful structure on that decaying storm moving SSE from Cambridge. 

    image.png

    Nice UFO captured there also:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

    Shall we start talking about Saturday?

    I'm trusting what GFS is saying this close in.  Hardly an event but, going on 2020 standards, will suffice

     

    Screenshot_20200604-232403.png

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    Posted
  • Location: High Barnet
  • Location: High Barnet

    Can't say I've seen too many memorable tstorm events off a northerly haha, but high res picking up on that cape too with a decent ppn signal, so could be a few very beefy downpours about..

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    looks like something coming up from france next week and in the night that seems the only 3 hour thunderstorm chance

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    Posted
  • Location: kent
  • Location: kent
    41 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

    looks like something coming up from france next week and in the night that seems the only 3 hour thunderstorm chance

    What day next week could it hit ramsgate ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    saturday-sunday night

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    interesting forecast here for me

    2020-06-05-09-25-47.png

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