Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[WxHerts]

Unique prognosis from the Met's website 'tool' for tomorrow afternoon/evening, haven't seen any other modelling suggest much activity this far east..unless I've missed something?

[Frosty hollows]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Am jealous just of the fact people are seeing some form of cloud definition! It has been muggy and hazy with dull stratiform detritus all day!!! Not even a smidge of AcCas to marvel at. 

We get a lot of convection here( Thames valley at the foot of the Chilterns) but more often than not it doesn't become active until it crosses the hills and hits the M40.

[Jeffers146]

Evening all. Should of been flying to Orlando Florida this month to see Those wicked sea breeze storms.....but instead I’ll be in Lincoln ! Oh well. Tonight are we thinking these storms are going to miss Lincolnshire and stay out at sea or are we looking at atleast some potential. Sorry for the poor Understanding, I’m still learning! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Any decent cams around Charleroi or Brussels? Could be an interesting watch over the next hour or so 

[Zak M]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Any decent cams around Charleroi or Brussels? Could be an interesting watch over the next hour or so 

Head over to the European Storm and Convective discussion thread 

[Frosty hollows]

That storm coming into Belgium is nuts

[Supacell]

I am dubious as to whether anything moving over from the North Sea would still have much or any lightning in it by the time it gets here. Should it head through the heart of England as shown on some models it could just have the affect of preventing thunderstorms developing tomorrow due to a lot of leftover cloud. Ideally we want it to miss the UK, not hit it.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Supacell

[Guest]

The storm near Lux has split, the right side moving on into western Germany is in a much more favourable environment, temps into the mid 20s etc. The left side moving into a less favourable environment over Belgium temps generally high teens to 20c. 

I think anyone up north will be lucky to see more than a few flashes to be honest, one positive is that with a further easterly track and moving pretty briskly it shouldn't really behind tons of cloud debris ruining tomorrows potential further north, which lets face is the usual double whammy!

Now being selfish, seems like most of the models for the 12Z suite seem way more interested in bringing in some potentially elevated convection during the day tomorrow in southern counties  

Edited June 12, 2020 by Guest

[ChannelThunder]

That Belgium storm would take at least 12 hours from now to even reach our shores 

[Argyle10]

Should I trust lightning maps? A lot of strikes are showing but no clue if they are real are those near me false

Edited June 12, 2020 by Charlie Harnett

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

Should I trust lightning maps? A lot of strikes are showing but no clue if they are real

If they are lone strikes, away from known storm activity, then they're almost always false. You'll probably find they disappear in five mins or so; it seems to have some kind of AI that realises false strikes and removes them.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

Should I trust lightning maps? A lot of strikes are showing but no clue if they are real are those near me false

From what I can see the nearest strikes to the UK are the ones near Cherbourg. 

[oliverek7]

Lovely cloudscapes over London, something developing moving north west

[Argyle10]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

If they are lone strikes, away from known storm activity, then they're almost always false. You'll probably find they disappear in five mins or so; it seems to have some kind of AI that realises false strikes and removes them.

Ah, yes they have disappeared now

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

26 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Head over to the European Storm and Convective discussion thread 

 I think we should be able to allow *relevant* euro cam chat in here, if it’s got the potential to affect our chances either tonight or tomo.

Thread-hopping is hard work on an iPhone

Edited June 12, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, Charlie Harnett said:

Ah, yes they have disappeared now

Sounds about right. I've been using that site for many a year and it's always had a knack for doing that 

[Zak M]

Sferic just popped out of nowhere off the coast of Netherlands in the North Sea

Edited June 12, 2020 by Zak M

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

@North Sea Man is going to have a great night

[Dami]

Bring back the days on the coast when i could see the lovely huge white storm clouds coming towards me , not hidden under muck like they are these days.

[Paul1968]

8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Sferic just popped out of nowhere off the coast of Netherlands in the North Sea

Extreme straw clutching sadly 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Mierlo-Hout Rail Crossing Live Webcam - Helmond, Netherlands - World Cams

WORLDCAMS.TV

A quick handy link for about an hour’s time  

[ChannelThunder]

Going a little off-topic and ahead in time; next Weds/Thurs and to a lesser extend Tues, look good on the latest ECM for home grown heavy showers/storms, still from this same LP, as it slowly fills over S UK.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Unless things change. I may fall onto my sword now and accept that most of the lightning will veer off into NL and we may get a few embedded strikes on the muck that scrapes past EA. 

I may be wrong, but it’s all a bit too Far East now to have any real impact. 

[toggerob]

I'm remaining optimistic for now as the active MCS is forecast to be moving over the Midlands from midnight onwards, with the possibility of smaller thundery downpours into tomorrow afternoon. Just need to shift this occluded front a bit further north and then it's eyes on the radar and out the window.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

I'm remaining optimistic for now as the active MCS is forecast to be moving over the Midlands from midnight onwards, with the possibility of smaller thundery downpours into tomorrow afternoon. Just need to shift this occluded front a bit further north and then it's eyes on the radar and out the window.

Certianly a welcome view seeing it rearing it’s head onto our radar. That’s just the tip of the iceberg aswell! Some places could get a real soaking for sure. Going to be an interesting 8-12 hours. 

Meanwhile, I’m off to order a curry!