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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Under whelming

Looks largely as expected to me..

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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Looks largely as expected to me..

Latest AROME & NMM are very underwhelming for tomorrow and form little to no storms at all. Worrying since both models performed relatively well so far today.

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thank god they are opening their borders on 1st July cant come soon enough

Think I will find myself over there for extended periods this summer lol

We have friends who moved down near to Toulon at the beginning of the year. It is totally my plan to scrape together enough to spend a few weeks there at some point before September (hopefully ?)

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Latest AROME & NMM are very underwhelming for tomorrow and form little to no storms at all. Worrying since both models performed relatively well so far today.

AROME still develops storms though perhaps not as widely as previously expected. The NMM produces very little but largely because it sends an MCS through East Anglia and into the Midlands tonight meaning there's a lot more cloud around during the day tomorrow.

NMM.thumb.png.7c78eb185f275dcbca076875174cee42.png

I think the NMM can probably be disregarded for the above frame alone.. completely out of kilter with all other models.

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I think this might be part of the upcoming possible MCS if I'm not mistaken

Cloud top > 9km

mcs.thumb.png.466e9393d74aeea1aff25c2f737bbb31.png   mcs0.thumb.png.7162247bd59fb2d52ed9afe253aa5f15.png

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Posted (edited)

Less than 12 hours from the event, and still no real agreement! Remarkable. Many are sticking with the EA MCS.

WRF delays the arrival, and we see it arrive at breakfast time instead, and then breaks out some SB storms quite widely across the midlands. 

Certianly an up tick once again in activity near Luxembourg. All eyes should be kept on this from now. Numerous random cells are starting to appear now in S England also. Just need them to electrify! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I think this might be part of the upcoming possible MCS if I'm not mistaken

Cloud top > 9km

mcs.thumb.png.466e9393d74aeea1aff25c2f737bbb31.png   mcs0.thumb.png.7162247bd59fb2d52ed9afe253aa5f15.png

Not really sure that has moved much all day , maybe another North Sea light show , but if it would like to visit East Berks that would be lovely ?

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Oh, would you look at that :oldlaugh:

9AD9F436-545F-49F4-955A-202B21E4028A.thumb.png.9919aac2e07c8557e318769517ff407e.png

I know, I’m joking, I’m joking...

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SE Wales has had about 30mins of torrential rain due to the curve flattening out on the tail end 

Pretty nice air conditioned breeze from the rain , No lightning but you could easily picture a thunder storm with the same intensity of rain 

 

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Having a non electrical heavy shower in Dover now. 

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Having a non wintry shower in Stevenage 

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Have raised the threat level to Moderate PDS

Particularly Drizzly Situation in SE Essex (COS) Cone of Silence

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Its too warm aloft and profiles up the column are too saturated for lightning hence the high rainfall totals and PWAT values

Probably going to be the same with the East Anglia Clipper tonight.

Tomorrow looks much better

Does make you wonder why Beeb forecast keeps banging on about the storms today when the radar shows just heavy rain. They must have the information that it's a bust or perhaps the forecasts are just recording of earlier forecasts as they are overnight.

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Just now, The PIT said:

Does make you wonder why Beeb forecast keeps banging on about the storms today when the radar shows just heavy rain. They must have the information that it's a bust or perhaps the forecasts are just recording of earlier forecasts as they are overnight.

In all honesty they are lazy and s hite tbh and really cant be ar sed with the General Situation. The level of forecasting since the Mid 80's has gone downhill rapidly

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

In all honesty they are lazy and s hite tbh and really cant be ar sed with the General Situation. The level of forecasting since the Mid 80's has gone downhill rapidly

Bring back Rob McElwee! 

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15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Oh, would you look at that :oldlaugh:

9AD9F436-545F-49F4-955A-202B21E4028A.thumb.png.9919aac2e07c8557e318769517ff407e.png

I know, I’m joking, I’m joking...

Well tbf it does look like quite a cool radar image 

693DE7B9-87C9-4561-96BB-2BF3C0D86E34.png

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Have raised the threat level to Moderate PDS

Particularly Drizzly Situation in SE Essex (COS) Cone of Silence

Hi Paul...I'm having difficulty in trying to define the boundary, between the Cone of Silence and the Triangle of Doom; my best guess, to date, is Chelmsford...Any thoughts?:oldgrin:

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For what it's worth, here's mine and Bens current thinking for tomorrow

1929194849_ConvectiveOutlook4.thumb.png.505f4738bf20f2215f6e2e46414520c1.png

Bulk of the instability will be across north Wales & NW Mids coinciding with peak daytime diurnal heating. Ascent profiles look good with cloud tops up to roughly 30,000 feet, DLS is supportive of multicellular storms though a little low for supercellular but definitely wouldn't want to rule the risk out entirely, weak LLS suggest the tornado risk is rather low 5<% but the risk of funnel clouds is a little higher. 

Storms generally of the "pulse' variety but wouldn't be surprised to see some of these upscaling and becoming locally severe in nature, torrential rain, gusty winds, high rainfall rates.

Elsewhere there's a generalised broad risk of torrential downpours/thundery showers, particularly across CS England into SW England during the late afternoon > evening period. Still some uncertainty re: timing of storm initiation. 

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struggling to see the potential tomorrow looking at the charts - shear looks good but not much in the way of instability or anything in terms of a trigger...

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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Hi Paul...I'm having difficulty in trying to define the boundary, between the Cone of Silence and the Triangle of Doom; my best guess, to date, is Chelmsford...Any thoughts?:oldgrin:

Oh great! ?‍♂️

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Put it this way the SPC (USA Equivalent) although not reporting to the General Public per se update 5 times per day and the general weather agencies over there eg Weathernation / TWC (The Weather Channel) glean all the neccesary details from this outlet. And change their forecasts accordingly. Would we get that with the BBC of course not, because its easier to just record something put it on the Tv or the Web or Twitter etc and leave it there.

Point in Case May 3rd 1999 EF5 in Oklahoma. Morning of there was a Slight Risk of storms and low tornado risk at 07z. This was raised to Moderate by 13z and upgraded to High Risk by 20z when skies that were supposed to be cloudy were clear and the synoptics allowed for Strong Long tracked Tornadoes. I am pretty certain our cloudy with a chance of storms some severe would not have changed had our agencies had their hands on it.

Like I said they really cannot be bothered and just broad brush things for an easy life.

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Hi Paul...I'm having difficulty in trying to define the boundary, between the Cone of Silence and the Triangle of Doom; my best guess, to date, is Chelmsford...Any thoughts?:oldgrin:

I think my cone of Silence does indeed crossover with your Triangle of Doom just north of the Chelmsford area ???

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Just had a heavy shower in Ipswich, looking at the radar there's bits and pieces of showery rain spewing over from Holland and Belgium. If there is anything electrical later then somewhere around Skegness may be a good shout, would see anything out to sea and closer to home there too. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Put it this way the SPC (USA Equivalent) although not reporting to the General Public per se update 5 times per day and the general weather agencies over there eg Weathernation / TWC (The Weather Channel) glean all the neccesary details from this outlet. And change their forecasts accordingly. Would we get that with the BBC of course not, because its easier to just record something put it on the Tv or the Web or Twitter etc and leave it there.

Point in Case May 3rd 1999 EF5 in Oklahoma. Morning of there was a Slight Risk of storms and low tornado risk at 07z. This was raised to Moderate by 13z and upgraded to High Risk by 20z when skies that were supposed to be cloudy were clear and the synoptics allowed for Strong Long tracked Tornadoes. I am pretty certain our cloudy with a chance of storms some severe would not have changed had our agencies had their hands on it.

Like I said they really cannot be bothered and just broad brush things for an easy life.

Lol you might want to have a look at 30 April 2010, where the risk was slight for almost the whole day, and only upgraded to High in the last (01z) update! The torndo risk was slight for the whole day until the last 2 updates. Not related but thought that might have been a better example ?

Edited by Thunder and Lightning
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