Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[Marcus_surfer]

A few breaks in the cloud here with some sunny spells which is what we need for any chance of thunderstorms later but in a good position according to net weather warnings

[Harry]

18 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Starting to wonder if this weekend will deliver at all. Models have been downgrading the influence of this LP for the last couple of days. I can no longer see much of a thundery spell at all before a more westerly flow takes over again.

If I can take any positives, then GFS still looks good for a little later next week, but that's so far away in model terms!

Indeed, I’ve been gaining this feeling too. Shame really.

[WxHerts]

Nothing like a bit of pessimism to kick off the day were people expecting GFS 2000j/kg charts to persist? I’m assuming that’s what it is, because to me the potential still looks great at this very early stage

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I am fully expecting we will see the potential come and go for the next 72 hours. Even at close range it’s a very messy picture so ppl need to take a step back and just enjoy the show

[Thunder and Lightning]

18 minutes ago, bradleywx said:

Nothing like a bit of pessimism to kick off the day were people expecting GFS 2000j/kg charts to persist? I’m assuming that’s what it is, because to me the potential still looks great at this very early stage

I agree! I don't really know why people are sad when the models are still showing things like this. Of course things will change and it will probably end up downgrading but the models are still showing large amounts of CAPE and I don't see any reason to get pessimistic just yet.

[Thunder and Lightning]

Met Office warning for the chance of thundery rain this evening

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

43 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

I agree! I don't really know why people are sad when the models are still showing things like this. Of course things will change and it will probably end up downgrading but the models are still showing large amounts of CAPE and I don't see any reason to get pessimistic just yet.

Excited if you are in the midlands lol. Kings Lynn will get it all

[Jamie M]

If only forecasting storms were easier, giving me a bloody headache!

[Chris.R]

Lots of CAPE on WRF for my location later; lets see what happens. Sun is out intermittently, insolation between 500-800 WM^2

Temp 16.7, much warmer than forecast at this time. 

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Chris.R

[Petorious]

As a member for sometime who reads and studies mostly as appose to commenting, I must say I have never known in my time to see charts too and throwing, back and fourth to the point not much makes sense and a decent honest forecast can't be casted.

Whether its looking for storms or in the summer charts topic, there does not seem to be much valuable information that could be considered reliable. Mad.

I think anything is on the table, and something must be changing in our whether climate that's creating an extremely fast changing forecast.

Oh well we keep looking on, but it can be very annoying. 

[matty40s]

Very oppressive and dark here near Daventry.....clouds looking ominous, and now pushing out a slight breeze.

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Even though I won't get a storm today, the sky certainly has that 'look'

Same here

[Zak M]

Even though I probably won't get a storm today, the sky certainly has that 'look'

[Petorious]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Even though I probably won't get a storm today, the sky certainly has that 'look'

Good to know in just in oundle at moment working, then back to thrapston then depot at Raunds. Still pretty murky here. Glad to see it looking better your way. Sun did try to come out in Peterborough mind you.

[Ryukai]

We seem to have a stationary rain cloud over us here in Stoke that's slowly getting heavier and heavier.  If you run the animation on the radar you can see it's just been sitting on-top of us for hours now, despite all of the other rain/storm clouds moving around :s  Fingers crossed it'll keep building  

Edited June 10, 2020 by Ryukai

[alexisj9]

It is supposed to be a stationery front, so it sound like you are under that. Here the sun is out now. 

[Zak M]

There's a heavy shower to my south and it's gone very dark.

[matty40s]

More unstable by the minute...

[Frosty hollows]

Lots of convection going up here. Nothing will come off but it's lovely to see. 

[James1979]

Decent downpour here, heaviest of the year so far, beautiful stuff.

[ancientsolar]

3 hours ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Met Office warning for the chance of thundery rain this evening

Well, the warning is a little West of me, it is currently looking dark all around
 
Most of the UK looking like, drizzle embedded with heavier busts and torrential downpours 

[Zak M]

This has gone up quickly to my east

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This has gone up quickly to my east

Good luck squeezing any lightning out of it. Looks like West is best today

[Harry]

38 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This has gone up quickly to my east

If someone had sent that to me and not knowing what the broader synoptics were I’d say it looked like a textbook inflow into a severe thunderstorm that picture is a good metaphor of why context is so important

Edited June 10, 2020 by Harry

[matty40s]

North of Northampton is going to get something!!