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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

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Looks like I'm in the moderate area again today! Another interesting looking day

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11 hours ago, Ryukai said:

Still waiting for mine ? they've been going past just a few miles to the SW and NE of me all day, Fingers crossed that the big stuff down at Birmingham makes it up here!

Did you end up seeing anything?

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31 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ConvectiveWeather forecast update - Now 2 MDT Zones!

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next...

 

quite a few caveats in that forecast though especially in regards to convergence zones,

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1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Even though I'm not in it, I'm super excited by this more southern moderate risk today!

socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Interesting this forecast mentions a ‘hole’ in higher CAPE values in central southern England due to stubborn cloud. Very happy to say I’ve got sun here in Gloucestershire already. It feels a bit warmer and a bit more humid than yesterday morning as well. We had a great storm yesterday, so hopefully a repeat today!

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3 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Interesting this forecast mentions a ‘hole’ in higher CAPE values in central southern England due to stubborn cloud. Very happy to say I’ve got sun here in Gloucestershire already. It feels a bit warmer and a bit more humid than yesterday morning as well. We had a great storm yesterday, so hopefully a repeat today!

Latest ARPEGE run has removed this 'hole' of CAPE values so it's all good. UKV known to have overly extensive cloud cover has reduced CAPE values & hence fewer storms. But Sat24 already showing a clearing towards the IOW so all good!

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Posted (edited)

Just about in the Moderate Zone again from Dan's outlook and in many in the warning zone from the Met Office.

MW.PNG

do.PNG

Edited by Sparkiee storm

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1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Just about in the Moderate Zone again from Dan's outlook and in many in the warning zone from the Met Office.

MW.PNG

The met office warning zone could be respahed with time but I notice Glasgow out the warning zone (just east of there) and the fact that dam's forecast has been incredibly accurate this week (and we not even in the slight zone for that)

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Arome this morning absolutely hammers parts of Devon and Cornwall around lunchtime, before the focus switches to the midlands and northwest once again for their daily hammering. Looks like we miss out again today. Haven't even got any sun this morning to compensate! 

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Pleased to report the sun breaking through here on the Sussex coast, so we can be the fuel again that others need for storm breeding!

Please feel some joy for us when an import finally arrives here this Summer! Seems our only chance.

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3 minutes ago, NUT said:

The met office warning zone could be respahed with time but I notice Glasgow out the warning zone (just east of there) and the fact that dam's forecast has been incredibly accurate this week (and we not even in the slight zone for that)

Yeah, saw the Met reshape/update there warnings many times and it certainly has, he has been correct many times with past events too including this period of thundery episodes.

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12 hours ago, Sweatyman said:

Best one for 2 years?

I was up in Leeds when you had the Line of storms in 2018 so I missed out on that! 

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Posted (edited)

Much happier with the model runs this morning for the largely storm starved SE (a few of us have enjoyed the limited exceptions). 
 

Initial storms look to break out a good few miles in from the east coast, spreading eastwards and growing upscale as they do (2KM WRF-NMM starting events around 15z in a line from Ashford (Kent) NNW up towards and past Cambs). Euro4 however has Kent and other areas S and SE of London staying dry until much later. NetWx starts events much earlier at 12z.
 

Then there is a risk of further albeit more isolated storms breaking out across the SE ahead of whatever storms/rain/mess moves in from Benelux approaching the midnight hours. Some suggest the southern edge of the Benelux mass could have convective/thundery elements, or indeed a separate convective line could form separate from the main connective/rain mass. This is supported by a number of models this morning.
 

Much more exciting day today - just wondering if I ought to be cheeky and ask for the afternoon off ? If the Euro4 comes off and my region stays dry until later in the day and overnight, then that will be wasted time off!! Decisions decisions...

Still much more signs of mid level instability around - pockets of AcCas and asperatus. Good vibes for today (which is seldom a good thing lol)

Edited by Harry
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Overcast and gloomy this morning. Just as it was this time yesterday.

Another day of radar watching ahead. Once again, it's all going to be down to local details. Will we miss them, breed them like on Monday or get a direct hit like yesterday? 

Looking forward to finding out.

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Overcast morning here,no sign of sun breaking through.

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Looks like it's northwest London that's going to start us off today. Shower developing there already.

It's like election night and who can get the first result in!

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Looks like were in for another interesting day! Who's out chasing today?

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Tony Gilbert of UKWW actually puts me in the possible weak FC/TN box for today.

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I’m tempted to drive over to kingsclere downs again later today to get a view of anything that does pop off to the north. 

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Have huge respect for the chasers out there , yesterday I had too go too socially distanced cricket practice with the eldest in Desborough , they had too call it off with ten mins too go as was getting darker too the south east , frequent thunder and occasional lightning getting closer.  The 15 minute drive home was pretty darn scary !!  The eldest recorded the journey ...

 

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59A2E1BA-0DC3-4B8E-B0B2-808702F5829D.png

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Here is the satellite loop I am using if anyone is interested, shows the skies clearing from the CS/SE.

image?type=visual5HDComplete&region=fr
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather France, Satellite Weather France, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in France - SAT24.com...

 

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here is the satellite loop I am using if anyone is interested, shows the skies clearing from the CS/SE.

image?type=visual5HDComplete&region=fr
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather France, Satellite Weather France, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in France - SAT24.com...

 

I realised I’ve neglected looking at the satellite pics up until now. It allows you to get an idea of where storms may be forming well before they appear on radar. 

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5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here is the satellite loop I am using if anyone is interested, shows the skies clearing from the CS/SE.

image?type=visual5HDComplete&region=fr
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather France, Satellite Weather France, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in France - SAT24.com...

 

This is the one you want if you want it to just focus on the UK: 

image?type=visual5HDComplete&region=gb
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and...

 

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3 minutes ago, slinky1989 said:

This is the one you want if you want it to just focus on the UK: 

image?type=visual5HDComplete&region=gb
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and...

 

Of course my apologies! Being in the SW it's sometimes easier for me to look at the France Sat to get an idea when the skies will clear. Thanks for the UK Sat anyway!

4 minutes ago, John90 said:

I realised I’ve neglected looking at the satellite pics up until now. It allows you to get an idea of where storms may be forming well before they appear on radar. 

Definitely they come in very handy!

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Of course my apologies! Being in the SW it's sometimes easier for me to look at the France Sat to get an idea when the skies will clear. Thanks for the UK Sat anyway!

Definitely they come in very handy!

Thank you as well as I didn't realise there was a zoom-able, movable version of Sat 24! ?

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