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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Nothing happened last night here again probably due to the aforementioned dreaded sea-breeze or what was left of it. Seems people had a fun night. Not here though. Hate the Irish sea!

I thought it was only two days ago you had an absolute Blinder of an evening storm?

plus today you’re near the main zone for activity. Plus yesterday you were about 30 mins away from perhaps the most severe storm so far this year... 

I have a stick with the moon on it if you’re interested?

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Well I making the most of it while I can. Doesn’t happen often. I’m sure it will be your turn soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:56 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Little change is expected on Tuesday, with a broad upper trough covering Britain and Ireland gradually extending southwards across France. This maintains an unstable airmass, with cool air aloft atop warm, moist low-levels (surface dewpoints of 12-16C). Overall, shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be more widespread than the past few days.

In a remarkably similar fashion to Monday, elevated convection (showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm) may be ongoing over the NW Midlands / N Wales on Tuesday morning courtesy of a minor shortwave, but this will relax to the west with time. Otherwise, diurnal heating will eventually yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE, with convergence zones and orographic forcing providing the primary triggers for deep convection to develop, at least initially. Storm motion will be very slow, generally 10-15mph to the NW across Britain and W or SW over Ireland - this brings the risk of localised flash flooding given high moisture content and prolonged downpours. Bulk shear will be weaker than on Monday, generally greatest around midday at 20-25kts, reducing to 15-20kts by evening. Hence showers and storms will tend to pulse, although may become a little organised for a time during the midday/early afternoon period. The most intense cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

Towards late afternoon another shortwave will drift northwards across Wales / Midlands / East Anglia / London and this may encourage more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity that may persist well into the evening hours, especially focussed near pre-existing boundaries. Low-level vorticity near such boundaries may be ingested into updrafts to bring the potential for a few funnel clouds or a weak tornado. 

Showers and thunderstorms could persist until late evening in some areas, but will generally become weaker as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs later in the day. However, some elevated shower and thunderstorm activity may persist, or actually increase, across SW Scotland, the Irish Sea and into E / NE Ireland through Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave over England/Wales swings westwards through the night. Some showery rain may also push from France towards S / SE England overnight, which could produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-16

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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells, snow, thunder snow, tornadoes
  • Location: North Cornwall
20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:56 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Little change is expected on Tuesday, with a broad upper trough covering Britain and Ireland gradually extending southwards across France. This maintains an unstable airmass, with cool air aloft atop warm, moist low-levels (surface dewpoints of 12-16C). Overall, shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be more widespread than the past few days.

In a remarkably similar fashion to Monday, elevated convection (showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm) may be ongoing over the NW Midlands / N Wales on Tuesday morning courtesy of a minor shortwave, but this will relax to the west with time. Otherwise, diurnal heating will eventually yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE, with convergence zones and orographic forcing providing the primary triggers for deep convection to develop, at least initially. Storm motion will be very slow, generally 10-15mph to the NW across Britain and W or SW over Ireland - this brings the risk of localised flash flooding given high moisture content and prolonged downpours. Bulk shear will be weaker than on Monday, generally greatest around midday at 20-25kts, reducing to 15-20kts by evening. Hence showers and storms will tend to pulse, although may become a little organised for a time during the midday/early afternoon period. The most intense cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

Towards late afternoon another shortwave will drift northwards across Wales / Midlands / East Anglia / London and this may encourage more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity that may persist well into the evening hours, especially focussed near pre-existing boundaries. Low-level vorticity near such boundaries may be ingested into updrafts to bring the potential for a few funnel clouds or a weak tornado. 

Showers and thunderstorms could persist until late evening in some areas, but will generally become weaker as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs later in the day. However, some elevated shower and thunderstorm activity may persist, or actually increase, across SW Scotland, the Irish Sea and into E / NE Ireland through Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave over England/Wales swings westwards through the night. Some showery rain may also push from France towards S / SE England overnight, which could produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-16

First mdt of the year

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Tomorrow night now looks crap again on the models; I give up!

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

very disappointing start to the day, foggy, chilly and not nice, will certainly hinder any chance of storms here today as it has done the last cpl of days

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Pleased to see my location is slightly more favoured today. Certainly felt a bit warmer and more humid on my morning ramble this morning and there’s already the odd small Cu beginning to form. Compared with yesterday it looks and feels more favourable here

Not that the it means much but the oracle is now suggesting at 70% thunderstorm risk at 13:00 today. Further ahead it is thinking a big jump in heat mid to later part of next week...presumably tapping into the same thing GFS has been tentatively signalling.

Good luck again today one and all - looking forward to all the posts, pics and vids

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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

‘Some showery rain pushing out from France towards south east England overnight‘?
Wow that’s getting my mouth watering. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

First one going up near Wigan...AGAIN!

 

image.thumb.png.93fa6dca5f3ca58fc02929fdadb7a493.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

are there any maps that show where these convergence zones are expected to be , free of course

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Convective, Snow
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands

Morning everyone! Certainly feels very humid out there already this morning.

It is rather cloudy though, I am hoping it starts to break so the sun can come through and start some surface heating!

Will be keeping a very close eye again today as it looks like i'm sat just outside the moderate area.

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

are there any maps that show where these convergence zones are expected to be , free of course

Netweather chart viewer shows wind convergence if you look through them!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
2 minutes ago, Calayte said:

Morning everyone! Certainly feels very humid out there already this morning.

It is rather cloudy though, I am hoping it starts to break so the sun can come through and start some surface heating!

Will be keeping a very close eye again today as it looks like i'm sat just outside the moderate area.

your actually in the Moderate area

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

are there any maps that show where these convergence zones are expected to be , free of course

I'm sure others might have something more apt, but I would say try windy.com and go into the settings to make the wind arrows more dense/fast/bigger, you can then drag the slider at the bottom through the upcoming hours and you get a good sense of the CZs. The model you're viewing can be changed bottom right

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Convective, Snow
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

your actually in the Moderate area

So I am! Must of looked over that haha! 

Even better!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth

Today I chase

On a job near Bedford which should be done late morning then I'm good for wherever I need to head, vans fully fueled  and stocked and I'll be out for the duration. 

Just treated myself to the netweather extra package so all the info I need 

Thinking I'll head to the leicester area as the set up (convergence zone) seems very similar to yesterday, and follow them north 

Good luck everyone 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
4 minutes ago, ItIsGee said:

Netweather chart viewer shows wind convergence if you look through them!

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Lance M said:

I'm sure others might have something more apt, but I would say try windy.com and go into the settings to make the wind arrows more dense/fast/bigger, you can then drag the slider at the bottom through the upcoming hours and you get a good sense of the CZs. The model you're viewing can be changed bottom right

thanks to you both

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
1 minute ago, dave reid said:

Today I chase

On a job near Bedford which should be done late morning then I'm good for wherever I need to head, vans fully fueled  and stocked and I'll be out for the duration. 

Just treated myself to the netweather extra package so all the info I need 

Thinking I'll head to the leicester area as the set up (convergence zone) seems very similar to yesterday, and follow them north 

Good luck everyone 

Good choice!! the Radar is ace and you can zoon really close on the maps so you now were you rouglty are!

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
47 minutes ago, jake44 said:

Looks pretty good for Saturday 

Screenshot_20200616-084339_Chrome.jpg

Sorry to bear bad news, but BBC app can't be relied on 4-5 days out and beyond. Especially in this case, as all models show a standard Atlantic front moving in on Saturday, so a splash of frontal rainfall looks way more likely than storms

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

 

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Sorry to bear bad news, but BBC app can't be relied on 4-5 days out and beyond. Especially in this case, as all models show a standard Atlantic front moving in on Saturday, so a splash of frontal rainfall looks way more likely than storms

Also there isn't much need to look out that far for T-Storms, as we have so many to look forward to over the next few days!

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

 

Also there isn't much need to look out that far for T-Storms, as we have so many to look forward to over the next few days!

Provided we eventually join in the fun down here over the next couple of days, yeah! *Everything crossed*

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme

Dew points looking pretty good across NW England/S Scotland today.

nmmuk-18-17-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.005703cfc0ae857909bec2af49e0794f.png

This entire week really giving off June 2016 vibes.

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