Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[MrNooo]

1 hour ago, whitty-southwest-uk said:

I like the sound of option 2 and i'm thinking myself to hit Gloucester a little later and see what starts to initiate in hope it starts around south maybe London and then have a bit more of an idea to push on North.  

Cu been bubbling up here since 10, no overdevelopment. At least if you get to Gloucester you can zoom up the M5/6 or cut across the A419 towards the M4

[whitty-southwest-uk]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

West seems to be mentioned a lot. Draw a line up the spine of the UK and west of that it’s moderate, low risk to the east

west is best

east is lol

urgggggg i have no hair left im getting stressed just debating where i need to be haha

[StormLoser]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

West seems to be mentioned a lot. Draw a line up the spine of the UK and west of that it’s moderate, low risk to the east

west is best

east is lol

If I move to Cornwall, what's the betting the whole lot will change and the South East will start getting all the storms...?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

28 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

One thing, I wish I was storm chasing in Germany today, they’ve got mothership CB’s going up all over! You’d be spoilt for choice. Plus with the Autobahns and more vastness, I bet it’s a brilliant place to chase in. 

There’s a language barrier and it’s really hard to get marmite in the shops. Would have a significant impact on my ability to chase there.

[whitty-southwest-uk]

1 minute ago, MrNooo said:

Cu been bubbling up here since 10, no overdevelopment. At least if you get to Gloucester you can zoom up the M5/6 or cut across the A419 towards the M4

Thats exactly what i was thinking but can i justify the drive for a few cloud formations and rain chasing haha.

[Paul Sherman]

7 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I often grumble about the "Thames Estuary High" but it's something I've noticed for years now. The city and the estuary seem to generate their own dry zone like a semi-permanent wedge of high pressure cap over the area. I suspect it is the arc of low hills surrounding the capital north, west and south.

 

Nailed it - Otherwise known as the Cone of Silence - First cumulus went up here and battered straight back down lol

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

On 01/06/2020 at 10:59, Zak M said:

From Metcheck's storm forecast:

"By the end of the week and Northerly winds develop with cooler conditions across all parts of the UK, some showers risk across Northern areas with perhaps the odd rumble of thunder and still some uncertainty for Southern areas as a thermal low across Northern France could bring some imported thunderstorms on Wednesday evening for a time."

I liked what they said about ‘storm risk most days this week’

[ancientsolar]

some nice Downpours in the Irish Sea just off Fishguard o,o

[MrNooo]

2 minutes ago, whitty-southwest-uk said:

Thats exactly what i was thinking but can i justify the drive for a few cloud formations and rain chasing haha.

I can always let you know when it kicks off!! lol Hard one to know

[Paul Sherman]

09z UKV  Dear God what a shocker

Wont post the charts but get the Prozac out and a crate of beer 

[James1979]

2 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

If I move to Cornwall, what's the betting the whole lot will change and the South East will start getting all the storms...?

If you're anything like me then nailed on as I've tried that and turned this immediate area into a dead zone. I have had 0 storms this year yet Zak down the road has 5 and cambridge in triple figures I think!

[whitty-southwest-uk]

This seems interesting...

 

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

09z UKV  Dear God what a shocker

Wont post the charts but get the Prozac out and a crate of beer 

06z WRF-NMM, AROME and ARPEGE by contrast keen to break out precip around 18:00 onwards from Kent N and W...what will win out???

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

20 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

I looked at Dan's & Nick's forecasts... hmm. Any cumulus here is towering sideways and the air feels fairly dry.  I don't really think the SE is on for anything, even should more moist air come in. 

I often grumble about the "Thames Estuary High" but it's something I've noticed for years now. The city and the estuary seem to generate their own dry zone like a semi-permanent wedge of high pressure cap over the area. I suspect it is the arc of low hills surrounding the capital north, west and south.

It will be in effect today.  (It's my theory and I'm sticking to it  )

My take is activity in the west country today and evening. 

Enjoy it down there!  

Same thing happens up here, and around the wash. Norfolk landmass generates a small heat low, and the Lincolnshire wolds the other side does the same. The result - a high, and an extra oomph to a stable sea breeze, killing and fending off any convection in the fens! 

Good for the Trent valley, as that sets up a convergence zone and the sea breeze is initially forced upwards by topography, followed by a mini foehn effect. Probably why Lincs does so well for storms. 

Edited June 13, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[PurpleLED]

tony from ukww has updated his forecast with this:

"UPDATE 1pm Sat

As per earlier forecast with following comments;

There is a slight risk of tornadoes for Dorset through to S Wales 14z-23z.
A secondary surface low is forecast to now develop just east of the primary Closed low core. This circulation looks to increase surface moisture advection toward the NW. In fact models predict almost 100% humidity values SW.
Moderate DLS with fairly acute directional LLS in place. A dewpoint depression potentially lowers LCL to just 1,000 ft. This will be optimum for vorticity to be ingested into any updraft. Any CIN over Wales looks to rapidly weaken leaving a non capped environment.
Any storm developing in the said location should exhibit low level rotation with the chance of a tornado or two. Based on the WRF forecast accents can't rule out a weak supercell developing!"

 

 

[Daniel*]

It doesn’t feel humid to me, dew point 9°C & air temp 22°C. I’m doubtful....

[Zak M]

9 minutes ago, James1979 said:

If you're anything like me then nailed on as I've tried that and turned this immediate area into a dead zone. I have had 0 storms this year yet Zak down the road has 5 and cambridge in triple figures I think!

Are you talking about my signature? If so, that's the number of days that I have seen lightning or I have heard thunder!

I classify a thunder day when a storm is usually 3-4 miles away from here and the difference between the bolt and the thunder takes no longer than 15 seconds. If you are talking about that, then I have only had 2 thunderstorms this year!

Edited June 13, 2020 by Zak M

[whitty-southwest-uk]

2 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:

tony from ukww has updated his forecast with this:

"UPDATE 1pm Sat

As per earlier forecast with following comments;

There is a slight risk of tornadoes for Dorset through to S Wales 14z-23z.
A secondary surface low is forecast to now develop just east of the primary Closed low core. This circulation looks to increase surface moisture advection toward the NW. In fact models predict almost 100% humidity values SW.
Moderate DLS with fairly acute directional LLS in place. A dewpoint depression potentially lowers LCL to just 1,000 ft. This will be optimum for vorticity to be ingested into any updraft. Any CIN over Wales looks to rapidly weaken leaving a non capped environment.
Any storm developing in the said location should exhibit low level rotation with the chance of a tornado or two. Based on the WRF forecast accents can't rule out a weak supercell developing!"

 

 

When you say SW you mean SW Eng?

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, whitty-southwest-uk said:

When you say SW you mean SW Eng?

or does he mean South Wales o,o 
or just generally SW UK o,o 

[whitty-southwest-uk]

1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

or does he mean South Wales o,o 
or just generally SW UK o,o 

Good shout didn't think about that ha

[Paul Sherman]

Anywhere but the Met Office big risk in NW England I think - Lol

And there twitter account is an absolute joke. They are throwing warnings out for NE England, Humber and when you click the link it takes you to the NW

Complete laughing stock

[sheikhy]

15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

09z UKV  Dear God what a shocker

Wont post the charts but get the Prozac out and a crate of beer 

Well just goes to show even the ukv is pretty useless lol when it changes just before an event is actually about to happen!!

[Supacell]

My current thoughts are I will refrain from heading north today and instead head south/southwest towards the SW Midlands. Maybe somewhere to the south of Brum would be well placed for about 5-6pm

[viking_smb]

17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

09z UKV  Dear God what a shocker

Wont post the charts but get the Prozac out and a crate of beer 

why's that mate? is it bad

[Paul Sherman]

Nice if you are in South Wales and the SW i guess for spotty showers so keep the faith Viking