Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[pinball wizard]

You able to share a chart Paul? 

[Allseasons-Si]

Had heavy hail recently and was quiet dramatic from nothing to very heavy to nothing in the space of two minutes.

[toggerob]

The Lightning rate is now going down the further out across the North Sea the MCS gets, but i'll still give it until 1:30am before calling it a night in-case anything unexpected flares up around the Peterborough area. Eerily quiet with low-fog outside here with humidity at 98%.

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

UKV Teasing again for tomorrow evening over London Town - Lol

Give us a clue???

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

The Lightning rate is now going down the further out across the North Sea the MCS gets, but i'll still give it until 1:30am before calling it a night in-case anything unexpected flares up around the Peterborough area. Eerily quiet with low-fog outside here with humidity at 98%.

Peterborough? Yes please 

[Paul Sherman]

[pinball wizard]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Thanks 

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Looks promising! Fingers crossed for more support for this in the morning. Night!

[Zak M]

AROME is showing something quite similar too

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Fab! Thanks Paul. Hope that keeps up...but I’m not holding my breath!

[matt111]

The UKV is teasing me too. Shows something approaching me in the channel during tomorrow afternoon then immediately dying as it reaches here. Would be fairly typical if that actually happened. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well guys, I think I might call it a night. The lightning is clearly being confined to the continental side of the system, where there is ML CAPE being tapped into. There’s a lack of it to the W, and the whole thing seemed to be pushed further N and E as to what was previously on the table. 

However, due to this missing us almost entirely, tomorrow morning may well be clearer and leading to more of a homegrown variety. 

A night time MCS would’ve been fantastic, but it was always going to be questionable. The Euro4 and AROME was bang on the cash yet again. Both signalling a more N’ward shift of the system. 

Happy trails, and hoping for a good day tomorrow. We also have the next few days looking juicy too, and the theme even looking to continue the same into next week as it stands! There’ll be more opportunities I’m sure. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[PurpleLED]

17 minutes ago, Zak M said:

AROME is showing something quite similar too

if it could just move a smige more south i think i'd be happy with that.

[Allseasons-Si]

Well that wasn't a bad storm in Noordwijk,Holland recently,here is a few screen grabs plus video(edited).

in sequence

split lightning

this the favorite one and was all over the place

IC crawler

IC then CG

as for tomorrow?,pin the tail on the donkey,radar and now-casting comes to mind

C U tomorrow and good luck everyone

[Josh Rubio]

All eyes on the radar again tomorrow. Automated forecasts proving useless as per usual in these situations. Here (Leicester) and Wolverhampton have identical forecasts according to BBC weather online despite being 40 or so miles apart.  

[Allseasons-Si]

I feel things are going to kick off north of here,there are cells popping up all over the place.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[oliverek7]

ECM has gone absolutely berserk over next week!? Never in a million years would that come off. Surely just a tease before it abruptly changes the day before  activity is too widespread, looks too good to be true

Edited June 12, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[oliverek7]

Also showing cape values of nearly 1500J/Kg

[Josh Rubio]

Think its far too early to be looking at next week. We've still got today (Saturday) to get through 

No doubt those charts and values will be massively downgraded come nearer the time. 

[Chris Lea-Alex]

@Oliver Wyndham-lewis

We've been getting our hopes up for nothing for a couple of months now, why quit now?!  Dare I say that 17th June is not that far away?  Or am I smelling of desperation?

 

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

Think its far too early to be looking at next week. We've still got today (Saturday) to get through 

No doubt those charts and values will be massively downgraded come nearer the time. 

Yep that’s exactly what I’m predicting lol too much of a sudden change in the models again. Will likely be followed by another sudden change later today and massively downgraded like you said. But I’m hopeful

[oliverek7]

3 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

@Oliver Wyndham-lewis

We've been getting our hopes up for nothing for a couple of months now, why quit now?!  Dare I say that 17th June is not that far away?  Or am I smelling of desperation?

 

Never gonna quit hope today something materialises a bit further east near London like AROME is now showing. But then if not, there’s some more hope with ECM 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking like a fish this storm in the north sea,night chaps and better look tomorrow/today lol.

And i don't think that we will be tempered by that MCS crud.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M]

Storm was too far away unfortunately for any distant lightning here.

[TJS1998Tom]

This has sure made a fair distance over past few hours