Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[Andy Bown]

If nothing else this morning is the first morning that has felt ‘juicy’ in Warminster. The sun has broken through low cloud and along with the ESE wind it feels warm and muggy.

I notice the Met Office rain prediction has showers breaking out from the South coast in the early hours with a heavy cell near the Bristol Channel by 04.00, is this a potential elevated show for the West Country?

[SteveB]

16 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

If nothing else this morning is the first morning that has felt ‘juicy’ in Warminster. The sun has broken through low cloud and along with the ESE wind it feels warm and muggy.

I notice the Met Office rain prediction has showers breaking out from the South coast in the early hours with a heavy cell near the Bristol Channel by 04.00, is this a potential elevated show for the West Country?

Hope so Andy. Haven't done very well so far, only light showery rain. Currently a stiff breeze and a lot of cloud.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Morning all. 

A mixture of outputs again to be fair, although most are showing similar things as what we’re shown yesterday. A storm system or activity of some kind heading WNW out of BeNeLux. 

The activity in SE France is certainly there. More importantly, Germany and other places like Luxembourg further North are clear (hopefully staying that way), and this will allow for that heat to build, and hopefully brew up a beast of a system for later. It’s all a watching game from now on in folks.

Enjoy it! 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Morning all. 

A mixture of outputs again to be fair, although most are showing similar things as what we’re shown yesterday. A storm system or activity of some kind heading WNW out of BeNeLux. 

The activity in SE France is certainly there. More importantly, Germany and other places like Luxembourg further North are clear (hopefully staying that way), and this will allow for that heat to build, and hopefully brew up a beast of a system for later. It’s all a watching game from now on in folks.

Enjoy it! 

The current weather-pattern (one that I call 'stable instability'! ) is one of my favourites, and means that we can all plot the SE-NW tracks of storm-systems without having to worry about everything being swept away, by an incoming Atlantic front...?

Awaits humdingers by the dozen!

[Nick F]

Netweather's Thunderstorm Outlook for today: 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 12 JUNE 2020

Issued 2020-06-12 06:21:33
Valid: 12/06/2020 0600 - 13/06/2020 0600

Forecast Details

Upper low and collocated surface low over Bay of Biscay at the start of the forecast will drift slowly N towards NW France. Occluded front wrapping around the surface low will push an arcing band of locally heavy rain with isolated embedded thunder north across the English Channel into S England by early afternoon, before it continues to push N across S Wales and the Midlands by early evening, north Wales and northern England late evening. Ahead of the frontal rain, a pre-frontal shortwave trough is evident on models and WV imagery, marked by narrow band of dry mid-level air and positive vorticity, also breeze convergence at the surface. The increasing instability of this trough and lift from surface convergence may support the development of a narrow band of heavy showers and perhaps thunderstorms across S England from late morning, which will drift N into S Wales and the Midlands ahead of the frontal rain moving in from the south. Some of these heavy showers and storms could produce frequent lightning and localised flooding.

Following the band of thundery rain spreading north along the occluded front, another shortwave upper trough noted on WV imagery, with associated dry mid-level air, will advance N across S England into the evening and overnight. This could trigger some isolated heavy showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two here across southern counties of England.

Further NE, a shortwave trough moving N further east over far N of France/Belgium Friday evening will be associated with an MCS / thunderstorm area that will push out into the North Sea towards E Anglia. Much of the surface instability will probably weaken as it crosses the cool North Sea, but there could be sufficient mid-level instability for isolated lightning with any stronger embedded convection within an area of heavy rainfall forecast to spread NW across east Suffolk, Norfolk, Lincs and E Yorks in the early hours.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited June 12, 2020 by Nick F

[Dami]

Alexa tells me i can expect some thunderstorms today and we all know what that means!

Nice to see you back @A.J long time no see.

Poor wills, I wonder hows he getting on, poor chap was flamed more than me! 

[ChannelThunder]

Any remaining positivity I had about the next couple of days has been further zapped out of me by this morning's runs etc. I'll keep charging my camera batteries regardless as I've already started now! But it'll be in vain...

Always preferred an actual plume over these sort of set-ups anyway, so roll on the first one of those!

[Frosty hollows]

Clear skies and early morning sunshine here. Let's hope this aids development of action

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Netweather's Thunderstorm Outlook for today: 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 12 JUNE 2020

I've always wondered why storms weaken crossing the N Sea from E to W, but when they exit the E coast they seem to intensify?

Edited June 12, 2020 by Supacell
Removed long quote

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

I've always wondered why storms weaken crossing the N Sea from E to W, but when they exit the E coast they seem to intensify?

They get excited because they like Denmark

[Josh Rubio]

It might be nothing but in the last few frames of the cloud radar animation, I see this area of cloud developing moving NW?

[Thunder and Lightning]

6 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

It might be nothing but in the last few frames of the cloud radar animation, I see this area of cloud developing moving NW?

I can see a few cumulus towers to my north, and they definitely have that convective feel to them.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

@Josh Rubio

Well there's always this in the South of France for backup:

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

If I'm honest almost anything could happen today. Every model has practically watered down today's evening risk and same goes for the weak MCS moving NW. I really don't understand why every decent thunderstorm risk gets watered down, god I hope we get surprised today/tonight.

[Joneseye]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Any remaining positivity I had about the next couple of days has been further zapped out of me by this morning's runs etc. I'll keep charging my camera batteries regardless as I've already started now! But it'll be in vain...

Always preferred an actual plume over these sort of set-ups anyway, so roll on the first one of those!

Definitely a day for radar watching and now-casting. I have that feeling that we may be a touch too far south and are likely to be in the breeding ground for those further north. I'm hoping that by me actually posting, that this will be a double bluff

[Harry]

Very warm and muggy air here. Agree different models seem to want to do slightly different things - some suggestions of some pop up storm type events after the rain band comes through today, others stay totally dry. Ben Rich’s forecast of last night was devoid of any locational detail - it was as if the graphics behind him weren’t there, except for when it came to temperatures - that says a lot about the reliability of the models. Warm humid air and low pressure nearby means there could well be surprises - let’s keep our fingers crossed and keep an eye on the radar and lightning detection over the next few days

Edited June 12, 2020 by Harry

[Turquoise]

Have a feeling north west will just get moderate rain 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

If I'm honest almost anything could happen today. Every model has practically watered down today's evening risk and same goes for the weak MCS moving NW. I really don't understand why every decent thunderstorm risk gets watered down, god I hope we get surprised today/tonight.

Always seems to be 2 things driving the models over-egging 3 or 4 days out. 1 they nearly always introduce too much moisture (not just GFS), 2 quite often always appear to over state the amount of isolation available, once they get within 24-36hrs they catchup and reduce the risk. 

That said this situation was always going to be tricky, the usually very good Arome has moved the MCS tonight probably about 100miles further east which is quite a chance for that model. 

[Jamie M]

Now-cast day today. Hope there's some sort of surprise. Feeling humid outside with a dp of 14.8°C.

[OddSpot]

2 hours ago, Dami said:

Alexa tells me i can expect some thunderstorms today and we all know what that means!

Nice to see you back @A.J long time no see.

Poor wills, I wonder hows he getting on, poor chap was flamed more than me! 

Ahhh the memories 

 

The weather the last few days around here has been boring, damp and dismal so a nice storm (here's hoping) would make up for it over this weekend

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Will’s weather website continues to chart changes in Newton Poppleford

WWW.SIDMOUTHHERALD.CO.UK

---

A keen weather enthusiast who has tracked Newton Poppleford’s weather patterns since he was a teenager has spoken about his passion for meteorology.

Seems he’s doing alright for himself

[James1979]

Good ol Will's ears must be on fire!  

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

To be fair he just bought an all-in-one and linked it to a server - not an innovation particularly - but great to see he’s still passionate about the climate

Trying to get acas records from his site but it says I don’t have the right security clearance for such sensitive data

Edited June 12, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[StormLoser]

Humid, looking at the radar but I have a sinking feeling this is going to be a all-west country show.  (I'll suppress the Dolly Parton music...    ).  We'll get some rain here in the south east but I can't see it being particularly intense.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

Humid, looking at the radar but I have a sinking feeling this is going to be a all-west country show.  (I'll suppress the Dolly Parton music...    ).  We'll get some rain here in the south east but I can't see it being particularly intense.

Distant show for the soggy middle though