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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

the bbc says it's clear saturday night no rain around, why does everything seem to say there's going to be a thunderstorm that night maybe even this says rain is it a trigger or something

 

That chart is for Friday night @Xanderp009 not Saturday. In any event I’m only interested at the moment as to whether charts are still showing a Low anchored to our SW scooping up potentially unstable air - if so, I’m happy! Detail right now especially from models that are struggling at the moment is of little value.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

10km WRF-NMM is showing a max of 2,000 j/kg CAPE in England on Saturday.

nmm-6-106-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

any chance that saturday's rain is ore southernly

 

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
3 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

apparantly a cape near 700 on Sunday

The NetWx-MR shows that sort of value across the region on Sunday, but something to note is that the UKV for Saturday is showing very significant amounts of CAPE by UK standards, and if that were to happen, it would probably take most of the juice out of the atmosphere, as well as an upper level ridge being forecasted near to the UK at that time, so it sounds great but may not be utilised.

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Screenshot 2020-06-09 at 14.28.58 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

10km WRF-NMM is showing a max of 2,000 j/kg CAPE in England on Saturday.

nmm-6-106-0.png

Right over Stoke on Trent too.....  

Never, will that happen 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

10km WRF-NMM is showing a max of 2,000 j/kg CAPE in England on Saturday.

nmm-6-106-0.png

If it all goes bust here we should fire up some webcams over eastern europe! Or fire up one of the many lightning sites and watch with envy 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Threatening thundery skies around here right now and some light rain. Obviously I'm not expecting anything more than that, but it's not surprising given how humid it was on my lunchtime walk and how the cumulus was towering

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

My level of confusion is immense currently.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
12 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Threatening thundery skies around here right now and some light rain. Obviously I'm not expecting anything more than that, but it's not surprising given how humid it was on my lunchtime walk and how the cumulus was towering

I noticed how humid it felt (and still does to an extent). Most humid it’s felt for a long time 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Very confused by tomorrows forecast for the southeast. The map with the predicted rainfall shows widespread heavy showers for most of the day and increasing into the evening.

The text forecast for London reads

"Rather cloudy with the odd spot of rain at times, most likely across the north of the region during the morning. Light winds but cooler than recent days Maximum temperature 16 °C."

BBC reads "Early patchy rain will tend to clear in the morning with some sunny spells developing in the afternoon. A few heavy showers are likely which may be thundery for some and linger into the evening."

Bit of a difference.

 

 

Edited by John90
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
18 minutes ago, John90 said:

Very confused by tomorrows forecast for the southeast. The map with the predicted rainfall shows widespread heavy showers for most of the day and increasing into the evening.

The text forecast for London reads

"Rather cloudy with the odd spot of rain at times, most likely across the north of the region during the morning. Light winds but cooler than recent days Maximum temperature 16 °C."

BBC reads "Early patchy rain will tend to clear in the morning with some sunny spells developing in the afternoon. A few heavy showers are likely which may be thundery for some and linger into the evening."

Bit of a difference.

 

 

To baffle further: UKWW are monitoring some potentially significant convective rainfall/thunderstorm potential overnight in the SW.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

To baffle further: UKWW are monitoring some potentially significant convective rainfall/thunderstorm potential overnight in the SW.

Yeah it is a particularly challenging situation even for the most experienced over the next 48 hours determining when/where & how heavy the rainfall will be & if any lightning will occur.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
33 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

To baffle further: UKWW are monitoring some potentially significant convective rainfall/thunderstorm potential overnight in the SW.

Well I can tell you that the UKV is definitely up for an occluded front bringing significant rainfall to Wales and the SW tomorrow evening 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

The BBC TV forecasts are so vague

I just watched the one on BBC1 and have no idea if it will be warm or cold or wet or dry or happy or sad or strong or weak.

 

Confused

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Ah the usually highly overoptimistic BBC website again. In fairness there does at least seem to be a reasonable chance this time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

I don’t think anyone really has much idea as to how much rain and/or if thunder will be accompanied with it for tomorrow and the rest of the week. 
 

Probably best to keep an eye on the rain and lightning radars over the next few days!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Good morning. 

A very interesting end to the week is looking likely now.

Friday into Friday night, I will be watching out for an initial front with thundery rain a possibility heading NNW during the day, followed by some possible imports out of the Low Countries into the night, heading into East Anglia and Lincolnshire (subject to change of course). I may head out and chase if anything interesting does crop up! 

Saturday looks like it could be a cracking day more widely! Good news and a long awaited muggy and unstable spell looks now to be upon us, at long last! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 10 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 11 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:52 UTC Wed 10 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A disrupting upper trough will result in a deepening upper low sliding southwards across the British Isles on Wednesday, primarily centred over Ireland / Irish Sea and reaching the northern Bay of Biscay by 06z Thursday. Its timing potentially coinciding with diurnal heating results in a very messy forecast evolution, with a mixture of dynamic and convective rainfall in various places. Two main frontal boundaries are identified during Wednesday daytime - one lingering over eastern England into Scotland, and another straddling Irish Sea coasts. As the upper low deepens, forcing aloft will increase - especially by the evening hours. The biggest concern over convection potential in most areas is extensive cloud and resultant limited surface heating. Large disparities between model guidance results in lower than normal confidence for the local detail during this forecast period.

... SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA / E MIDLANDS ...

The leading front will potentially linger over similar areas for much of the day, and will be characterised by periodic outbreaks of rainfall falling from primarily mid/high-level cloud with embedded elevated convection. Fairly extensive rain will ultimately result in a cool boundary layer and little instability. However, if the rain becomes more patchy, and if any breaks in the cloud can allow some degree of surface heating, then there may be scope for surface-based convection to develop. Forecast profiles suggest cloud tops to around 15,000ft (-15C ELTs) may be possible if sufficient surface heating can occur in the vicinity of low-level convergence. While a few isolated lightning strikes would be possible from heavy showers that may develop, the saturated profiles and weak shear suggests individual cells will struggle to maintain intensity and be slow-moving, hence the greatest threat is localised surface water issues.

Late on Wednesday night, elevated convection is likely to result in scattered showers arriving from the North Sea into East Anglia and perhaps SE England. Some uncertainty over how much lightning activity (if any) this may produce, but the risk does increase here during the early hours of Thursday,

 

... SW ENGLAND / WALES / W MIDLANDS / NW ENGLAND / SW SCOTLAND ...

Rather extensive cloud and patchy outbreaks of rain seem likely during Wednesday daytime, but some cloud breaks may develop and allow surface heating to occur - potentially yielding up to 500 J/kg CAPE in places. Scattered showers may develop with time, particularly over Wales, Cumbria and SW Scotland where orographic forcing will aid in forced ascent given an otherwise fairly slack surface pattern. Forecast profiles suggest that a warm nose at 550-600mb, which may initially limit the depth of convection to around 14,000ft, will be gradually eroded as the mid-levels continue to cool and moisten as the upper low approaches and deepens. Consequently, deeper convection could evolve towards the second half of the afternoon. Weak shear and saturated profiles suggests lightning may be fairly localised. Nonetheless, a couple of low-end SLGTs (30%) have been issued.

Towards the evening hours, the increased forcing aloft is likely to engage with the frontal boundary over the Irish Sea, resulting in more widespread outbreaks of heavy rain developing over Wales and SW England. This is likely to be a mixture of dynamic and convective rainfall, and may ultimately lead to an increase in lightning activity in the vicinity of south Wales and SW England during the evening hours - especially where convergence is maximised close to the axis of a developing surface low. However, weak shear, saturated profiles and limited CAPE casts much uncertainty over how much lightning activity may actually occur.

 

... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...

With frontal rain having largely cleared to the east by late morning, here a much more clear-cut forecast evolution is expected. Increasing insolation as cloud continues to break beneath cold mid-levels as the upper low slides slowly southwards atop, will result in numerous showers developing in an environment with 300-500 J/kg CAPE but weak shear. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, before showers gradually weaken and clear southwards during the second half of the evening. A low-end SLGT (30%) has been issued.

 

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CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Starting to wonder if this weekend will deliver at all. Models have been downgrading the influence of this LP for the last couple of days. I can no longer see much of a thundery spell at all before a more westerly flow takes over again.

If I can take any positives, then GFS still looks good for a little later next week, but that's so far away in model terms!

Edited by Lance M
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