Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I mean we could stop looking beyond the reliable timeframe completely if will keep everyone happy  

Provided nobody starts identifying a hail core in Lower Sunbury or a sting-jet over Cowes from a model showing details for two weeks’ out I don’t see what the issue is  

I love delving into to the distant future with forecasts - especially as it’s now so easy using apps like Ventusky. It’s a bit like christmas when you were a kid: pretty sure you wouldn’t get that Lamborghini pen, but there was always that miniscule chance it might happen

[Zak M]

Not too sure what this weather app is on but I’m liking it!

[ChannelThunder]

8 hours ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure what this weather app is on but I’m liking it!

Ha! What a load of nonsense!

[Harry]

9 hours ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure what this weather app is on but I’m liking it!

Mine is showing a couple of thunderstorm icons too! Sunday and Wednesday. While I’m not keeping my diary free for anything as yet, I am liking the general trend towards a more humid unstable setup. 

[ChannelThunder]

6 minutes ago, Harry said:

Mine is showing a couple of thunderstorm icons too! Sunday and Wednesday. While I’m not keeping my diary free for anything as yet, I am liking the general trend towards a more humid unstable setup. 

Right on cue, here's a classic BBC move since partnering with Meteogroup:

Edited June 9, 2020 by Lance M

[oliverek7]

38 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Right on cue, here's a classic BBC move since partnering with Meteogroup:

I always steer well clear of the bbc. Constantly changing and not in line with other models. Showing high pressure all of next week?? Nothing like what I’m seeing looking at the models. Then it changes again

Edited June 9, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[chapmanslade]

27 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Right on cue, here's a classic BBC move since partnering with Meteogroup:

There was a discussion on here a while ago about how the 'lightning' symbol is triggered and it is far more than just a change to Meteogroup. From what I can remember it never used to show the symbol until you were pretty much being struck and never picked up elevated storms. Plenty more knowledgeable on here will be able to give you the details.

The whole Met Office / Meteogroup thing re BBC is a load of tosh and actually demeans the qualified meteorologists that present the BBC forecasts. Apps are just that - computer generated and should be viewed as such.

Meanwhile I'm quite enjoying this doom ridden, trough dominated week with temps of 19C and 21C for the last two days. As Flash Bang says, by all means look at FI, and even comment on what it shows, but please don't make statements like we are 'locked in' and 'nothing positive this month' when it will change by the morning. I know some do it to wind people up but what does that achieve ?

[chapmanslade]

4 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I always steer well clear of the bbc. Constantly changing and not in line with other models. Showing high pressure all of next week?? Nothing like what I’m seeing looking at the models 

It works quite well for 'today' and 'tomorrow' in most cases but obviously no use at 10 days - not sure why they bother with it at that range

[wimblettben]

I wasn't able to mention at the time but back early in May this year there were a line of cumulonimbus clouds that formed in a line to the south and southeast of here during the hot sunny afternoon. I was pleasantly surprised as I didn't think we would get homegrown storms in Wales like we got in the southwest and south of England. 

I wen't up the road with my mum looking at the clouds and hearing a load of rumbles of thunder for at least half an hour, and my mother said that she saw a bolt of lightning in the distance.

I don't know what us in west Wales will get from this thundery forecast for next week but it will be interesting to see.

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There was a discussion on here a while ago about how the 'lightning' symbol is triggered and it is far more than just a change to Meteogroup. From what I can remember it never used to show the symbol until you were pretty much being struck and never picked up elevated storms. Plenty more knowledgeable on here will be able to give you the details.

The whole Met Office / Meteogroup thing re BBC is a load of tosh and actually demeans the qualified meteorologists that present the BBC forecasts. Apps are just that - computer generated and should be viewed as such.

Meanwhile I'm quite enjoying this doom ridden, trough dominated week with temps of 19C and 21C for the last two days. As Flash Bang says, by all means look at FI, and even comment on what it shows, but please don't make statements like we are 'locked in' and 'nothing positive this month' when it will change by the morning. I know some do it to wind people up but what does that achieve ?

Agreed - this is why I prefer to watch the BBC/Met Office forecasts via TV/Youtube than view their location-based app forecasts. Their respective apps often don't even line up with the more detailed overview and thoughts of the meteorologists themselves!

Interestingly, although I've 'mocked' the appearance of the lightning symbol for 7 hours in the post above, for the April 2018 plume event down here, the BBC's location forecast for Southampton was the only one (that I know of) showing storms a something like a week before the event. This shows that, albeit rarely, it can be onto something!

[Zak M]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Right on cue, here's a classic BBC move since partnering with Meteogroup:

One time when I was in Florida I checked the BBC Weather app for there and it placed a thunderstorm icon for every single hour of a few days 

[ChannelThunder]

25 minutes ago, Zak M said:

One time when I was in Florida I checked the BBC Weather app for there and it placed a thunderstorm icon for every single hour of a few days 

Same here for when I visited Gambia in the wet season! It was forecasting them constantly.

The reality was around half a dozen immense storms in the 14 days I was there. 98% of the time it was dry and sunny.

[ChannelThunder]

06z GFS still looking promising convection wise.

And what's that sneaking into the SE corner from France late on Friday night? 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

28 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Same here for when I visited Gambia in the wet season! It was forecasting them constantly.

The reality was around half a dozen immense storms in the 14 days I was there. 98% of the time it was dry and sunny.

We had something similar in the tropics of Guildford last year. We were a week out and the charts showed plentiful CAPE for 6 days consecutively. I remember thinking the chances of all 6 days being misforecast was reliably low and something would come off...

Can’t remember if we even got a rumble out of that lot

Goes to show you can have a month of lightning symbols showing but if it’s not within 24 hours it kind of adds up to nothing but a loose theme.

Ironically, that week there was that fantastic import which moved in across East Sussex and into Kent. It was a chase (nothing back at home that evening) but it was certainly worth it.

Take everything with a big pinch of salt, but rule nothing out!

[Eagle Eye]

the bbc says it's clear saturday night no rain around, why does everything seem to say there's going to be a thunderstorm that night maybe even this says rain is it a trigger or something

11 minutes ago, Lance M said:

06z GFS still looking promising convection wise.

And what's that sneaking into the SE corner from France late on Friday night? 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

thunderstorm corridor

tuesday-one thunderstorm corridor is put to the south of europe and is very squeezed with tight smaller storms breaking out whilst the northernly one is rested and has a lot of cape spread out with maybe a supercell

wednesday-a thundestorm corridoor around the midlands is expected to move and bulge throughout the day going southernly for the most part however the thunderstorms will break in pockets of areas with a relatively high rise of cape for some time however these are not expected more than a few strikes ahead of the main low early on, the main low as it impacts the warmer area of the uk may have another rise for that area in cape but very minimall, these will most likely be long lived less lightning, more rain storms meanwhile in the midlands of europe another warm area that has risen will most likely create some dangerous long lived , severe storms   

Edited June 9, 2020 by Xanderp009

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

thunderstorm corridor

tuesday-one thunderstorm corridor is put to the south of europe and is very squeezed with tight smaller storms breaking out whilst the northernly one is rested and has a lot of cape spread out with maybe a supercell

wednesday-a thundestorm corridorr around the midlands is expected to move and bulge throughout the day going southernly for the most part however the thunderstorms will break in pockets of ares with a relatively high rise of cape for some time however these are not expected more than a few strikes ahead of the main low early on, the main low as it impacts the warmer area of the uk may have another rise for that area in cape but very minimall, these will most likely be long lived less lightning, more rain storms meanwhile in the midlands of europe another warm area that has risen will most likely create some dangerous long lived , severe storms   

um...

[Eagle Eye]

probably should have wrote it on the day, probably doesn't make any sense

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Xanderp009 said:

probably should have wrote it on the day, probably doesn't make any sense

 

Just sounds quite specific for a forecast and without a map it’s a little confusing

[Eagle Eye]

my map was more than 10 mb that's why

[Eagle Eye]

1. this is a round up of what i said for the fist part for the uk and northern france

[Eagle Eye]

tommorow this is what it think although it might go more easternly the slight

[StormLoser]

13 hours ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure what this weather app is on but I’m liking it!

Don't you know? That's the new "Netweather Storms & Convective Discussion Group Storm App!"  Tends to be a bit rose-tinted, though.  

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

tommorow this is what it think although it might go more easternly the slight

I think I’ll stick to google weather

[Eagle Eye]

16 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I mean we could stop looking beyond the reliable timeframe completely if will keep everyone happy  

Provided nobody starts identifying a hail core in Lower Sunbury or a sting-jet over Cowes from a model showing details for two weeks’ out I don’t see what the issue is  

I love delving into to the distant future with forecasts - especially as it’s now so easy using apps like Ventusky. It’s a bit like christmas when you were a kid: pretty sure you wouldn’t get that Lamborghini pen, but there was always that miniscule chance it might happen

how did you know i'd seen that hail core

Edited June 9, 2020 by Xanderp009