Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Thunder here just after seven. All IC, clearly crawlers as you could hear the rumbles moving across the sky. One large CG about 19:30 though that scared the dogs

Looks like there is a squall line developing off Berwick at the mo that is heading South.....

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.

Numerous scattered showers are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas and times, in an environment with 20-30kts deep layer speed shear on the western/southwestern flank of the upper low. Forecast profiles suggest convection could potentially reach up to 23,000ft (ELTs -40C) in places, deeper than on Friday, with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, some sporadic lightning seems quite likely, especially with any cells that can become semi-organised. Gusts of 40-45mph may be possible with the strongest cells, with some hail also likely. Activity will gradually weaken during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides, although overnight some weak elevated instability may evolve over NW England into the Midlands, on the western flank of the broad area of rain along the returning occlusion - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-06

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.

Numerous scattered showers are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas and times, in an environment with 20-30kts deep layer speed shear on the western/southwestern flank of the upper low. Forecast profiles suggest convection could potentially reach up to 23,000ft (ELTs -40C) in places, deeper than on Friday, with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, some sporadic lightning seems quite likely, especially with any cells that can become semi-organised. Gusts of 40-45mph may be possible with the strongest cells, with some hail also likely. Activity will gradually weaken during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides, although overnight some weak elevated instability may evolve over NW England into the Midlands, on the western flank of the broad area of rain along the returning occlusion - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-06

Another thundery day for Eastern parts tomorrow!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.

Numerous scattered showers are expected to develop in the aforementioned areas and times, in an environment with 20-30kts deep layer speed shear on the western/southwestern flank of the upper low. Forecast profiles suggest convection could potentially reach up to 23,000ft (ELTs -40C) in places, deeper than on Friday, with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, some sporadic lightning seems quite likely, especially with any cells that can become semi-organised. Gusts of 40-45mph may be possible with the strongest cells, with some hail also likely. Activity will gradually weaken during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides, although overnight some weak elevated instability may evolve over NW England into the Midlands, on the western flank of the broad area of rain along the returning occlusion - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-06

Oioi!!!! Might get my first rumble of 2020 tomorrow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
46 minutes ago, Muffelchen said:

Thunder here just after seven. All IC, clearly crawlers as you could hear the rumbles moving across the sky. One large CG about 19:30 though that scared the dogs

Looks like there is a squall line developing off Berwick at the mo that is heading South.....

and a big squall line at that 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A nice sunset shower to my SW earlier

DSC02852.thumb.JPG.d8aac71fb8630eb94260bbf9c134a155.JPGDSC02853.thumb.JPG.89fa52de775875f4455018339cfd78e0.JPG

tomorrow looks even better than today's,so we are creeping up slightly with the potential,and still looking good for later next week/weekend(as it stands)

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

Sferics in the north sea, off the essex coast heading towards east anglia according to blitzy, nothing on net weather radar though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Sferics in the north sea, off the essex coast heading towards east anglia according to blitzy, nothing on net weather radar though.

Hi

that storm isn't heading for east Anglia as the storm is pulling away to the east towards  Holland/Belgium border.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

That must be the Mississippi MCS I take it

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

 

BD2224C4-1100-4725-9E11-A03ED7D83CEF.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Distant lightning visible from here once again!!

Put your telescope away Zak:oldlaugh:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Lol I must be the closest to that storm due east of me and even I cant see the lightning - Pmsl

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol I must be the closest to that storm due east of me and even I cant see the lightning - Pmsl

Is it cloudier where you are Paul?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is it cloudier where you are Paul?

Clear Skies above but cloudy out east - Have a clear view towards Holland and Belgium from here. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
27 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

BD2224C4-1100-4725-9E11-A03ED7D83CEF.png

How the hell are you always seeing everything? Do you have to ability to fly or something? 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL

I could also see the lightening from here, plus the lights of Dunkirk and north coast towns of Belgium 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

on the Deal, Kent webcam once it pans round...damn that moon is that bright

 

social873.jpg
WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

View of Deal's seafront promenade and Pier from the Waterfront Hotel

 

Another decent webcam for future storms has been added with this Whitstable one on the north Kent coast

social1219.jpg
WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

View of Whitstable Beach in Kent

 

Edited by OddSpot
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Clear Skies above but cloudy out east - Have a clear view towards Holland and Belgium from here. 

Didn't bother to check this forum whilst it was going on. It was clear to my E too. My luck really.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

That's really getting going now it's crossed the North Sea. Bet it wouldn't do the same if it was going the other way. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, matt111 said:

That's really getting going now it's crossed the North Sea. Bet it wouldn't do the same if it was going the other way. 

We will find out next week:oldlaugh:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 hour ago, Jamiee said:

How the hell are you always seeing everything? Do you have to ability to fly or something? 

978.thumb.jpg.b05777e694a297b5a22c17a45830f9dc.jpg

Jokes aside, just blame the hill that I live on :oldlaugh:

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Looks to be a decent chance of some heavy showers and thunderstorms today, especially across Central and Eastern England. CAPE starts to build during the morning as skies clear behind the rain band currently moving southwards and shifts south through the afternoon. Highest CAPE value look to occur over the southern and eastern Midlands southeastwards, with an increase as the afternoon wears on. This would seem to indicate the highest risk of storm being somewhere from approx Nottingham/Leicester southwards across the south-east Midlands and then the Home Counties, East Anglia and SE England.

nmmgif_pl.thumb.gif.6df32566d28aaf63a0e831d59512f8f1.gif

Precipitation charts show arcs of heavy showers moving southwards. With increasing lapse rates and CAPE values in the region of 300-700j/kg it would be expected that some of these showers would turn thundery. Deep layer shear in the region of 10-20m/s could allow for some organisation of storms.

nmmgif_pl.thumb.gif.6ffecb531f5cc7c38a97fccaf338595c.gif

The above charts are the Netweather Extra NMM charts. The Euro4 shows a very similar distribution of showers.

Any storms that do develop are going to be moving quickly and so rainfall totals are unlikely to be particularly high, but if under one it could briefly produce strong convective wind gusts, torrential rainfall, small hail and lightning. Storms are more likely to occur today than yesterday in my opinion, and as some people saw storms yesterday it appears likely that somebody will see a storm today (but most will miss them).

With my storm chasing head on I would say that today will be a hard day for chasing, due to the fast movement of storms, but if you can place yourself ahead of a storm arc and wait for the storm to come to you then it could pay off. Added to this there could be some nice cloud scapes out there this afternoon.

Edited by Supacell
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...