Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[James1979]

1 minute ago, Ryukai said:

Wouldn't surprise me if the current record breaking weather is being helped along by the lack of contrails, normally there's at least half a dozen in the sky (even on 'clear' sunny days) and normally more, barely see one a day now.  All that extra sunlight/heat reaching the surface instead of being reflected back into space has got to be having some sort of effect.

Possibly but we seem to get locked into patterns more often, eg soaking Winter v bone dry Spring and quite a few articles put this down to a weakening jet stream which in turn is caused by less of a temperature contrast due to a warming Arctic. I'm certainly no expert but it sounds plausible. I miss the variety in our weather at the moment that's for sure.

[Zak M]

Interesting sky this evening, even though I most likely won't get anything

[matty40s]

Indeed

[matt111]

No sign of anything here yet, as expected as it's too early, just the clear sky we've become used to lately. Will look very different tomorrow

[Allseasons-Si]

So here is CW's take on tomorrow then.

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 03 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 04 Jun 2020

ISSUED 20:20 UTC Tue 02 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will continue to extend southwards across western Europe during Wednesday, its axis over the British Isles. The associated cooling and moistening of the mid-levels will in part aid in showery outbreaks of rain developing fairly widely across England and Wales during the day. This will be accompanied by extensive medium- and low-level cloud. Pockets of weak elevated convection may exist, embedded within areas of showery rain, and could produce the odd isolated lightning strike. However, the main focus will be linked to any sufficient cloud breaks that can develop to aid in surface heating across S / SW England and S Wales and yield 200-500 J/kg CAPE. Given the slack surface pattern, areas of low-level convergence may develop and this will provide the primary forced ascent to generate deep convection. 

Big concerns exist over saturated profiles and extensive cloud cover. Shear is also likely to be fairly weak given the location within the trough axis. Hence, even if deep convection does indeed develop, showers may struggle to maintain themselves for any length of time with pulse-type showers likely (although outflow may aid additional development nearby). This, combined with hints of a slight warm nose in the 500-600mb layer may also serve to restrict the depth of convection too. All in all, this does not bode well for much in the way of lightning activity, unless sufficient sunshine can significantly lift surface temperatures and be able to force parcels higher than the 500-600mb layer. Current thinking is a few scattered heavy, slow-moving showers may develop during the day - which poses a risk of localised surface water flooding - but the risk of lightning is rather limited. Given the low cloud bases and low-level convergence present, a few funnel clouds may be possible.

 

Model guidance also varies in location of the most favoured areas for heavy showers to break out too. As a general rule, a zone from S/SE Wales and across southern England / southern parts of the Midlands is at risk, perhaps moreso close to coasts where low-level convergence will be maximised, but pinpointing specific areas where heavy showers are most likely, and then on top the aforementioned concerns over lightning potential, negates the need for a SLGT unless confidence in either aspect increases.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

I would say along the the M4 into the SE through tomorrow afternoon for some heavy showers to break out with some sporadic lightning.

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

UK weather forecast map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

[Ryukai]

26 minutes ago, matt111 said:

No sign of anything here yet, as expected as it's too early, just the clear sky we've become used to lately. Will look very different tomorrow

Personally, I have my fingers crossed that the blob of rain in the Irish Sea (that has just passed over the Isle of Man) keeps trundling onwards.  The direction it's traveling means it'll come straight down the Cheshire gap and hit us here head on.  Gardens looking very 'wilty' now, could do with a good downpour.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Ryukai

[matt111]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I would say along the the M4 into the SE through tomorrow afternoon for some heavy showers to break out with some sporadic lightning.

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC...

UK weather forecast map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

The UKV keeps a lot of places in that area wet for a lot of the day. Could be very wet in places. 

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Personally, I have my fingers crossed that the blob of rain in the Irish Sea (that has just passed over the Isle of Man) keeps trundling onwards.  The direction it's traveling means it'll come straight down the Cheshire gap and hit us here head on.  Gardens looking very 'wilty' now, could do with a good downpour.

Looks hopeful. There's hardly any grass left here but look like it'll get a nice water tomorrow. 

[Zak M]

Heavy showers are expected to develop in SW England during Wednesday afternoon. If there is any cloud breaks in the SW, the sun will get to work and will yield 200-600j/kg CAPE. This will support the development of heavy showers, capable of producing the odd lightning strike. Due to a strong cap in place and not a lot of shear, if any thunderstorms do develop, they might not produce a lot of lightning and will be more pulse type.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Zak M

[viking_smb]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Heavy showers are expected to develop in SW England during Wednesday afternoon. If there is any cloud breaks in the SW, the sun will get to work and will yield 200-600j/kg CAPE. This will support the development of heavy showers, capable of producing the odd lightning strike. Due to a strong cap in place and not a lot of shear, if any thunderstorms do develop, they might not produce a lot of lightning and will be more pulse type.

Going to be fun in work then tomorrow lol. Hope lightning doesnt strike us when i'm fuelling our ribs up, it will end up lashing down whilst i'm in the marina getting 200+ ltrs of petrol

Edited June 2, 2020 by viking_smb

[Convective]

58 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Personally, I have my fingers crossed that the blob of rain in the Irish Sea (that has just passed over the Isle of Man) keeps trundling onwards.  The direction it's traveling means it'll come straight down the Cheshire gap and hit us here head on.  Gardens looking very 'wilty' now, could do with a good downpour.

Precipitation was actually fairly heavy as it passed over. Didn’t take long to give things a good soaking.

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, matt111 said:

The UKV keeps a lot of places in that area wet for a lot of the day. Could be very wet in places. 

But not one spot of rain for the far southeast

[Thunder and Lightning]

Good to see the sun poking out through the cloud here!

[Jamie M]

8 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

But not one spot of rain for the far southeast

No soaking here until Thursday morning on UKV. Begging for this rain at the mo!

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Good to see the sun poking out through the cloud here!

Same here, which I wasn’t expecting. Let’s see how today pans out, but some added heat from the sun won’t hurt at all.

Edit - just popped out to post a letter and the sky resembles the environment pre-post elevated storms - lots of altostratus, asperatus type clouds around. Quite picturesque 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Harry

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A spot of light rain in Egham. Doesn’t feel particularly stormy, but I have a feeling if anything was to happen today it would happen somewhere near here - probably a heavy and weakly electrified shower early afternoon.

Not expecting any significant stormy weather though

[ChannelThunder]

The radar returns aren't even reaching the ground here so far. Cloud base does look high.

[Paul Sherman]

Sunny and Warm in Leigh On Sea with high level cirrus 

[WxHerts]

Lol you guys enjoy today’s show I’ll just be waiting for this to come off 

[oliverek7]

7 minutes ago, bradleywx said:

Lol you guys enjoy today’s show I’ll just be waiting for this to come off 

Yep that’s a proper plume event we could be in for next Friday. It’s so far away... very likely it won’t come off given our luck

[Frosty hollows]

26 minutes ago, Lance M said:

The radar returns aren't even reaching the ground here so far. Cloud base does look high.

Same here! 

[Met4Cast]

Not personally optimistic about the lightning potential today besides perhaps a few sporadic flashes. Doesn't look like any real thunderstorm cells will develop, there's too much cloud around

[Jamie M]

Diddly squat today. Onto the next event!

[matt111]

Looking at the radar very little of the rain currently falling anywhere can be described as heavy.