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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards


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It's the first day of summer, the skies are blue (again) and there are no storms expected today (again). I'm not bitter though, and besides which, a post complaining about a lack of storms should go in this thread started by @Dami for all us storm starved Brits. Just for information, you do not have to have not seen a storm to post in here about the lack of storms. Anyone is free to post their moans and this year I would expect it will be quite a busy place, as so far storms have been more scarce than visitors to my house in the last 2 months.

For anyone who wants to look back over the previous months of storms I would firstly suggest you maybe watch paint dry as it would be more interesting. But seriously, old thread is here ?

Please keep this thread on topic and let's hope for some good storms during the first month of summer and beyond. Remember there are separate threads for talking about current weather conditions which are not storm related.

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A quick recap of my day, without getting too waffly. It has been an absolute classic and my favourite/most successful chase so far. - started fairly benign as I failed to get a good handle on the

100% Bonafide Supercell no doubting that whatsoever 35knts of flow, Moved right of the deviant steering flow Killed off anything that came near it Like most Supercells massive uptick in

Nice little thunderstorm finally drought is over!  London webcams: I grabbed this!!! 

Posted Images

Well I would like to start by saying that the latest WRF-NMM has encouraged me for Wednesday, just on the basis of getting rain, but also hopefully something thundery, if it holds together... Also interested by tomorrow in Scotland, with most models showing 200-400 j/kg of CAPE, and a few nasty showers or storms shown on the UKV.

 

 

Screenshot 2020-06-01 at 08.18.59.png

Screenshot 2020-06-01 at 08.21.42.png

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GFS offering no CAPE for Wednesday but NMM-5KM giving a solid chunk across S England for a few hours before clearing away by 18-19z. Seems to me a slim window so fingers crossed ?

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we had a loverly group of storms develop here near torrevieja last night at midnight. some spectacular lightning was on display. but there wasnt much rain which was kind of good because i could enjoy the storm without having to close my window and shutter. thursday looks promising here in torrevieja spain. with day temps in the high 20s low 30s with some cooler air inland. should be a pretty good day. with heat here and cooler air inland. good luck to you peeps in england you need somthing good and ì wish you luck. 

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Posted (edited)

From Metcheck's storm forecast:

"By the end of the week and Northerly winds develop with cooler conditions across all parts of the UK, some showers risk across Northern areas with perhaps the odd rumble of thunder and still some uncertainty for Southern areas as a thermal low across Northern France could bring some imported thunderstorms on Wednesday evening for a time."

?

Edited by Zak M
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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

From Metcheck's storm forecast:

"By the end of the week and Northerly winds develop with cooler conditions across all parts of the UK, some showers risk across Northern areas with perhaps the odd rumble of thunder and still some uncertainty for Southern areas as a thermal low across Northern France could bring some imported thunderstorms on Wednesday evening for a time."

?

Huh? How can there be imports when the flow will be from the North? Imports barely make it over when everything's coming from the south ?

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1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Huh? How can there be imports when the flow will be from the North? Imports barely make it over when everything's coming from the south ?

Exactly ?

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25 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Exactly ?

I read on Metcheck that Wednesday will have a weekly capped unstable airmass in place for the afternoon. It’s a marginal risk but central southern areas westwards could see sharp, thundery showers developing. My take is that down near Poole we may see something kick off - possibly imported, but imports look fairly unlikely

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I have no idea how they are coming to the conclusion of 'imports' either. Upper flow doesn't come from a Southerly direction at all.

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6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I read on Metcheck that Wednesday will have a weekly capped unstable airmass in place for the afternoon. It’s a marginal risk but central southern areas westwards could see sharp, thundery showers developing. My take is that down near Poole we may see something kick off - possibly imported, but imports look fairly unlikely

I dont mind if thundery showers during the day weds, I'm in at cbyc all day as got to sort out our safetyboat fleet so wouldnt mind seeing a little storm whilst at work, I dont think there will be any imports though. 

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4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I have no idea how they are coming to the conclusion of 'imports' either. Upper flow doesn't come from a Southerly direction at all.

It was based on various sources. To be fair I don’t see it, looks like everything will be moving from the west or NW, which is how we got that great storm about 7 years back.
 

I think it may have been a typo and they are expecting exports, lol

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54 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It was based on various sources. To be fair I don’t see it, looks like everything will be moving from the west or NW, which is how we got that great storm about 7 years back.
 

I think it may have been a typo and they are expecting exports, lol

Gone are the days when we used to see awesome convective Northwesterlies, particularly here in the East. May used to be a good month for them! 

This year seems to be doing very badly not just here, but even in Europe and America. Normally by now we would have seen at least one substantial outbreak across France into the Low Countries and Germany. Not the case at all this year! 

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16 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Wednesday looks decent on the NetWx-SR

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

Have you any other frames?

i wouldn't know the direction of travel  from one single frame.

 

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Scattered showers will form ahead of a frontal band of rain in NE Scotland, N England and N Ireland on Tuesday afternoon. 200-400j/kg CAPE will be present and will support these heavy showers, with the odd lightning strike possible. If any thunderstorms do develop, they are expected to be short-lived as the cap will be quite strong, limiting how high the clouds will be and how much lightning will be produced. These scattered showers may bring the risk of small hail.

imageedit_63_2136820148.gif

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Have you any other frames?

i wouldn't know the direction of travel  from one single frame.

 

I don't have NW extra and it only goes up to 12pm

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Scattered showers will form ahead of a frontal band of rain in NE Scotland, N England and N Ireland on Tuesday afternoon. 200-400j/kg CAPE will be present and will support these heavy showers, with the odd lightning strike possible. If any thunderstorms do develop, they are expected to be short-lived as the cap will be quite strong, limiting how high the clouds will be and how much lightning will be produced. These scattered showers may bring the risk of small hail.

imageedit_63_2136820148.gif

Let’s hope that is correct Zak! 

I think any thunderstorms or torrential downpours will be most likely in the North and East - can’t see anything exciting happening this far West IMBY. 

45E6E263-B511-47A8-96A0-B1066CD8E64B.thumb.png.3270449a8d65afe744a93159b38f9784.png757DE3CD-92F5-4B1C-83F4-0AE1DE4CD4B3.thumb.png.0b4f1cbe9743f6957e48f4b2dbee0be5.png5353EA36-2D34-4B68-B311-EF4A867BFBD2.thumb.png.fdb181db30ce89c201ffb115b764c59f.png
 

F641BE95-8214-49C9-87EB-4FA3B6EF486B.thumb.png.044667b36bcdd6be48e16d566df13db8.png352A64BF-8589-4F30-BDF9-202C01394FE9.thumb.png.c35d76cd300a2b7749503cedac6b4dba.pngF95BC446-4728-4FBF-AA31-CF0DD9AA7582.thumb.png.6e7d7e4953358264de39b715434f5a14.png

Pretty underwhelming stuff from Convective Weather below. (See other post)

What do you think @Kirkcaldy Weather ?

Edited by Mr Frost
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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

20200601.1617.PPVE89.png

image.thumb.png.68c37af48af71d7b1d053c2d0dfd5c41.png looks like a trough ahead of the front will carry the thunder risk, wrf nmm 2km shows an area of around 800/900 j/kg CAPE from that area i mentioned earlier (stonehaven - montrose) then moves into Fife and then into Edinurgh and the borders gradually weakening, I wonder if there could also be a chance of funnel cloud formation as the charts do show shear and helicity present nmm_uk1-15-27-3.thumb.png.ddfc4c00031675e7032ffdc4f9e936e0.pnggfs_srh_eur30.thumb.png.f0bed66257672595cb517c1ff0d4b34f.pnggfs_icape_eur27.thumb.png.e8da5a1432393ef3d6de541e4c2782bd.pngsrh03_uk.thumb.png.7adca93985636df18faafe629e6f3e64.pngbs0500_uk.thumb.png.81efb2a5b5306ed6cd14cdab6dc536de.png 

 

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I reckon Dan may put a SLGT out tomorrow evening, highlighting a risk in the South on Wednesday.

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Posted (edited)

Day 2 Convective Outlook

45061A54-36E0-4D14-AD6D-A285E4B088A2.thumb.png.cd986c9241d01a2126c829aea2c934da.png

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 Jun 2020 

ISSUED 20:45 UTC Mon 01 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A minor shortwave exiting from eastern Scotland on Tuesday morning may aid in the development of a few elevated showers here, and more especially offshore. Meanwhile, an upper trough will elongate across the British Isles through this forecast period, resulting in cooling aloft progressively from north to south. During daylight hours the main focus for deep convection will be Scotland, and later NE England, as diurnal heating yields 100-300 J/kg CAPE. Given the generally slack surface pattern, low-level convergence and orographic forcing will likely provide the main forcing mechanism for scattered showers to develop, both ahead of and perhaps within the ragged frontal rain that will gradually slide southeastwards across Scotland. Rather warm, moist mid-levels will tend to restrict convective depth to below 600mb, and this overall will limit the potential for much in the way of lightning. The main focus for lightning will be E / SE Scotland into NE England with more discrete cells possible for a time, but ultimately this may merge into a general area of showery rain with time. 

Through the evening and night, as the upper trough continues to extend south and the mid-levels continue to moisten sufficiently, showery outbreaks of rain are likely to develop in a semi-random fashion over other parts of Wales, England and S + E Ireland - the main focus being northern England into Wales. Forecast profiles are rather saturated below 550mb, which coupled with weak instability suggests the lightning risk is fairly low, but a few isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Tomorrows forecast is out from Estofex, sorry l can't do the link, there's nothing on it for the UK.  See what Wednesday brings.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

Tomorrows forecast is out from Estofex, sorry l can't do the link, there's nothing on it for the UK.  See what Wednesday brings.

This is not intended to raise false hopes but Estofex didn’t have any areas even close the UK on 23 May but fairly active storms developed across S England on this day bringing quite a bit of lightning. This was correctly forecast by Dan on convective weather however.

On Tuesday NMM-5KM highlighting some fairly decent SBCAPE across easternmost Scotland and keen to break out convective precipitation here, whereas the same is true more widely across parts of S England on Wednesday. This model can be guilty of overcooking CAPE somewhat but I do find it pretty good nonetheless at picking out areas of heightening storm risk.

DAB0BCCF-2604-4C59-AC8C-EF8A5655E2DA.png

61A41B67-FD98-4384-BF2B-0148A6F1F073.png

6315215F-F387-4F9D-B80A-D12FAFB66887.png

E35A424D-AB7E-4202-95E8-226958AD477F.png

Edited by Harry
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