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June 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests


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13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Despite a background of continual warmth, June in recent decades has yet to return a very high CET compared to the average. Nothing in the top 15 since 1976. 

To be fair there’s been no August more than 2C above the 1981-2010 average since 1997 either.

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Just to let everyone know, the scores will be a little delayed this month. Probably will be out on Saturday.

EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June  _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered. _ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in

15.7c to the 27th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st Current low this month 13.0c t

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2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m on the understanding hadCET haven’t confirmed it yet, or am I wrong ?

The figures are first updated in the monthly tables before they're updated on the 2020 (or whatever year it may be) page.

See here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

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17 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

August 2003 at 18.3 CET, was the joint fifth hottest in CET series, so still a notable warm anomaly.

So there has been a high CET August in last 20 years. 1976 is 44 years ago now, much longer time period.

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

August 2003 at 18.3 CET, was the joint fifth hottest in CET series, so still a notable warm anomaly.

1.9C above average being fifth is very indicative of just how warm the August average has probably become relative to prior averages.

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12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

1.9C above average being fifth is very indicative of just how warm the August average has probably become relative to prior averages.

I actually think the recent augusts since 2003 being historically bad is a myth - it has been consistently just above average. Only 2008,10,14,17 being awful and 2005,13,16,19 being really good

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June is also the month showing the least modern warming and the only month whose highest running 30-year interval (14.72, 1822-51) is from an earlier era than the modern, all other months have their warmest 30 years relatively recently. IIRC December goes back a bit to 1971-2000. The modern June average is creeping up towards that old mark and was last spotted in the 14.65 vicinity, but June has been up and down between 14.3 and 14.7 running averages for almost two centuries. The fact that it has the shortest nights of the year might play a role as nights were never that cold in June. 

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The EWP has landed at 97 mm for June. Later changes are unlikely to change this order of scoring for June, except for Weather26 who could edge up or down if the final value is more than 1 mm revised from this preliminary value:

 

JUNE SCORING LEADERS

 

Forecaster ______ fcst ___ error ___ points

DogToffee ______ 77.7 __ -19.3 ___ 10.00

Let it Snow! _____ 77.0 __ -20.0 ____ 9.84

Bobd29 ________ 77.0 __ -20.0 ____ 9.76 (2nd entry)

virtualsphere ____ 72.0 __ -25.0 ____ 9.34

Weather26 _____ 124.0 __+27.0 ____9.17

East Lancs Rain _ 75.0 __ -22.0 ____ 9.11 (0.4 late pen)

Jonboy _________70.0 __ -27.0 ____ 8.97 (0.2 late pen)

SteveB _________67.0 __ -30.0 ____ 8.85

Blast from the Past 67.0 __-30.0 ____ 8.57 (0.2 late pen, 2nd entry)

Roger J Smith ___ 65.8 __-31.2 ____ 8.52

2010cold _______ 64.1 __ -32.9 ____ 8.36

Stationary Front __64.0 __ -33.0 ____ 8.20

Godber1 ________63.0 __ -34.0 ____ 8.03

JeffC ___________60.0 __ -37.0 ____ 7.87

prolongedSnowLover 60 __ -37.0 ____ 7.79 (2nd entry)

The PIT _________60.0 __ -37.0 ____ 7.71 (3rd entry)

Mulzy __________ 57.0 __ -40.0 ____ 7.37

Stewfox ________ 55.0 __ -42.0 ____ 7.21

syed2878 _______55.0 __ -42.0 ____ 7.13 (2nd entry)

DR(S)NO _______55.0 __ -42.0 ____ 7.05 (3rd entry)

pegg24 _________55.0 __ -42.0 ____ 6.97 (4th entry)

daniel* _________ 55.0 __ -42.0 ____ 6.89 (5th entry)

AlderC _________ 54.0 __ -43.0 ____ 6.39

Feb1991Blizzard _ 53.5 __ -43.5 ____ 6.23

February 1978 ___ 51.0 __ -46.0 ____ 6.06

Neil N __________ 50.0 __ -47.0 ____ 5.90

Twilight _________ 50.0 __ -47.0 ____ 5.82 (2nd entry)

J10 ____________ 50.0 __ -47.0 ____ 5.54 (1 day late, 3rd entry)

The rest of the scores going down by forecasts continue to drop by 0.164 for each scoring position (rounded), per entry, except that LG at 200 mm has a larger error than the lowest forecast (despite that being 0.3 mm) and scores 0.0 ... a more complete scoring summary will be posted later, as well as the annual update. 

The annual scoring will tighten up somewhat as the two leaders (Reef and Emmett Garland) scored low for this month. Twilight may have passed them (have not had time to work on that part yet). 

Late penalties are 0.2 points per day and order of entry deductions are 0.08 (half of a scoring interval) per position. Both deductions can be applied to some scores.

 

 

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20 hours ago, Leo97t said:

I actually think the recent augusts since 2003 being historically bad is a myth - it has been consistently just above average. Only 2008,10,14,17 being awful and 2005,13,16,19 being really good

August 2008 was actually close to, or just above older averages with a CET of 16.2; it was just how dull that month was that changes peoples perceptions of that month when it was not cool at all.   August 2010 was below average though at CET 15.3, and August 2014 is actually the coolest of recent times at 14.9, and the last cooler one was in 1993.  August 2017 was just below average, not by much.

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20 hours ago, Leo97t said:

I actually think the recent augusts since 2003 being historically bad is a myth - it has been consistently just above average. Only 2008,10,14,17 being awful and 2005,13,16,19 being really good

Dunno about last August being really good. Quite localised - rainfall was 151% nationally, with over 200% in the north and northwest.

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EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June

 _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered.

_ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in right column (smaller print)

rank _ Forecaster ______Total points _ Avg err (rank) _ rank_Fcstr_Points_err

_01__ Reef ____________51.05 ______ 32.0 [mm] (2) __31 __ Timmytour ____ 33.12 ___ 44.4 (36t)

_02__ Godber.1 ________ 49.60 ______ 29.9 (1) _____ 32 __ February 1978^_33.07 ___ 42.2 (30t)

_03__ Mulzy ___________ 47.75 ______ 33.9 (4) _____ 33 __ Mr Maunder ___ 32.79 ___ 42.2 (30t)

_04__ Twilight __________47.70 ______ 35.5 (6) _____ 34 __ davehsug _____ 32.23 ___ 46.2 (41)

_05__ Emmett Garland ___47.64 ______ 35.6 (7) _____ 35 __ Relativistic^____ 32.19 ___ 44.4 (36t)

_06__ virtualsphere ______44.18 ______ 35.9 (8) _____ 36 __ DiagonalRedLine^_30.39 __ 49.0 (44)

_07__ mb018538 _______ 42.13 ______ 38.7 (15) ____ 37 __ prolongedSnowLover^^29.00__ 37.5 (10)

_08__ JeffC ____________41.09 ______ 37.6 (11) ____ 38 __ sleety^ _________28.89 ___ 41.4 (27)

_09__ bobd29 __________40.79 ______ 40.4 (22)_____ 39 __Let it Snow! _____28.86 ___ 53.1 (48)

_10__ SteveB __________40.35 ______ 39.8 (18t) ____ 40 __Robbie Garrett^^ _28.74 ___ 41.1 (23)

_11__ The PIT _________ 40.08 ______ 37.9 (12) _____41 __CheesepuffScott _ 28.41 ___ 46.5 (42t)

_12__ Don ____________ 39.84 ______ 39.0 (16)_____ 42 __syed2878^______ 28.21 ___ 42.0 (28)

_13__ General Cluster ___39.81 ______ 39.9 (20)_____ 43 __ weather-history __27.87 ____ 46.5 (42t)

_14__ Stationary Front ___39.37 ______ 40.1 (21)_____ 44 __I Rem Atl 252 ^ __26.40 ____ 45.6 (39)

_15__ Blast from the Past _38.79______ 39.8 (18t) ____ 45 __ Kirkcaldy Wx ____ 26.22 ____ 50.4 (46)

_16__ Jonboy^_________ 38.76 ______ 33.5 (3) ______46 __ Norrance _______ 26.09 ____ 49.2 (45)

_17__ DogToffee _______ 37.62 ______ 38.0 (13)_____ 47 __ Neil N __________ 25.81 ____ 65.6 (53)

_18__ DR(S)NO ________37.54 ______ 37.2 (10) ____ 48 __ Kentspur ^^^ (4/7) _25.65 __ 33.9 (not elig)

_19__ DAVID SNOW ____37.30 ______ 41.2 (24)_____ 49 __ stargazer^^_______23.25 ____ 38.1 (14)

_20__ J 10 ____________36.95 ______ 42.1 (29)_____ 50 __ Polar Gael^ ______ 22.52 ____ 54.7 (49)

_21__ brmbrmcar ______ 36.84 ______ 39.6 (17)_____ 51 __ freeze^^ _________ 21.07 ____ 52.0 (47)

_22__ snowray ________ 36.12 ______ 41.3 (25t)_____52 __ B87^^ ___________ 20.12 ____ 62.6 (52)

_23__ Weather 26 ______35.98 ______ 42.5 (32t) ____ 53 __ Shillitocettwo^^ ____ 19.13 ____ 59.4 (51)

_24__ Feb1991Blizzard __35.91 ______ 41.3 (25t)____ 31 __/// rest of list -- played June, or entered July

_25_ Thundery Wintry Showers^_35.87_____  34.2 (5) _____ 31 __////// and have 3-7 entries in the contest

_26__ Midlands Ice Age__ 35.61 ______ 42.5 (32t)____55 __ Pegg24 ^^^ ________ 18.18 __ 54.5 (not elig)

_27__ Born from the Void _35.23 ______ 43.7 (34)____ 57 __ Earthshine^^^^ ____ 15.76 __ 32.2 (not elig)

_28__ daniel* __________ 34.94 ______ 44.2 (35) ___ 58 __ stewfox^^ _________ 15.12 __ 57.9 (50)

_29__ Roger J Smith ____ 34.83 ______ 45.9 (40) ___ 62 __ Summer Blizzard^^^^_ 11.38 __ 49.5 (not elig)

_30__ seaside60 _______ 34.28 ______ 44.5 (38)____ 98 __ Leo97t^^^^ _________ 7.85 __63.4 (not elig)

_  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _   135 __ Lettucing Gutted _____0.51 _160.4 (54)

____________________________________________________________________

^ has entered 6 of 7 contests.

^^ has entered 5 of 7 contests.

^^^ missed three (four entered) ...  ^^^^ missed four (three entered)

______________________________________________________________________

The ranking for average error allows those who haven't played every month to get a direct comparison with more frequent entrants who are naturally going to have a few more points, so this explains why some fairly good ranks for average error appear in the lower half of the scoring table. It helped to miss February. The average error there was over 60 mm. This past month ran up large errors also, however, almost everyone in the table played June. 

By the way, recent 30-year normal (1990-2019) would rank 3rd for points and 6th for average error, 1981-2010 is a bit lower at 7th/12th and our consensus is 10th/20th. 

We have been running larger errors this contest year than the first two. 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June

 _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered.

_ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in right column (smaller print)

rank _ Forecaster ______Total points _ Avg err (rank) _ rank_Fcstr_Points_err

_01__ Reef ____________51.05 ______ 32.0 [mm] (2) __31 __ Timmytour ____ 33.12 ___ 44.4 (36t)

_02__ Godber.1 ________ 49.60 ______ 29.9 (1) _____ 32 __ February 1978^_33.07 ___ 42.2 (30t)

_03__ Mulzy ___________ 47.75 ______ 33.9 (4) _____ 33 __ Mr Maunder ___ 32.79 ___ 42.2 (30t)

_04__ Twilight __________47.70 ______ 35.5 (6) _____ 34 __ davehsug _____ 32.23 ___ 46.2 (41)

_05__ Emmett Garland ___47.64 ______ 35.6 (7) _____ 35 __ Relativistic^____ 32.19 ___ 44.4 (36t)

_06__ virtualsphere ______44.18 ______ 35.9 (8) _____ 36 __ DiagonalRedLine^_30.39 __ 49.0 (44)

_07__ mb018538 _______ 42.13 ______ 38.7 (15) ____ 37 __ prolongedSnowLover^^29.00__ 37.5 (10)

_08__ JeffC ____________41.09 ______ 37.6 (11) ____ 38 __ sleety^ _________28.89 ___ 41.4 (27)

_09__ bobd29 __________40.79 ______ 40.4 (22)_____ 39 __Let it Snow! _____28.86 ___ 53.1 (48)

_10__ SteveB __________40.35 ______ 39.8 (18t) ____ 40 __Robbie Garrett^^ _28.74 ___ 41.1 (23)

_11__ The PIT _________ 40.08 ______ 37.9 (12) _____41 __CheesepuffScott _ 28.41 ___ 46.5 (42t)

_12__ Don ____________ 39.84 ______ 39.0 (16)_____ 42 __syed2878^______ 28.21 ___ 42.0 (28)

_13__ General Cluster ___39.81 ______ 39.9 (20)_____ 43 __ weather-history __27.87 ____ 46.5 (42t)

_14__ Stationary Front ___39.37 ______ 40.1 (21)_____ 44 __I Rem Atl 252 ^ __26.40 ____ 45.6 (39)

_15__ Blast from the Past _38.79______ 39.8 (18t) ____ 45 __ Kirkcaldy Wx ____ 26.22 ____ 50.4 (46)

_16__ Jonboy^_________ 38.76 ______ 33.5 (3) ______46 __ Norrance _______ 26.09 ____ 49.2 (45)

_17__ DogToffee _______ 37.62 ______ 38.0 (13)_____ 47 __ Neil N __________ 25.81 ____ 65.6 (53)

_18__ DR(S)NO ________37.54 ______ 37.2 (10) ____ 48 __ Kentspur ^^^ (4/7) _25.65 __ 33.9 (not elig)

_19__ DAVID SNOW ____37.30 ______ 41.2 (24)_____ 49 __ stargazer^^_______23.25 ____ 38.1 (14)

_20__ J 10 ____________36.95 ______ 42.1 (29)_____ 50 __ Polar Gael^ ______ 22.52 ____ 54.7 (49)

_21__ brmbrmcar ______ 36.84 ______ 39.6 (17)_____ 51 __ freeze^^ _________ 21.07 ____ 52.0 (47)

_22__ snowray ________ 36.12 ______ 41.3 (25t)_____52 __ B87^^ ___________ 20.12 ____ 62.6 (52)

_23__ Weather 26 ______35.98 ______ 42.5 (32t) ____ 53 __ Shillitocettwo^^ ____ 19.13 ____ 59.4 (51)

_24__ Feb1991Blizzard __35.91 ______ 41.3 (25t)____ 31 __/// rest of list -- played June, or entered July

_25_ Thundery Wintry Showers^_35.87_____  34.2 (5) _____ 31 __////// and have 3-7 entries in the contest

_26__ Midlands Ice Age__ 35.61 ______ 42.5 (32t)____55 __ Pegg24 ^^^ ________ 18.18 __ 54.5 (not elig)

_27__ Born from the Void _35.23 ______ 43.7 (34)____ 57 __ Earthshine^^^^ ____ 15.76 __ 32.2 (not elig)

_28__ daniel* __________ 34.94 ______ 44.2 (35) ___ 58 __ stewfox^^ _________ 15.12 __ 57.9 (50)

_29__ Roger J Smith ____ 34.83 ______ 45.9 (40) ___ 62 __ Summer Blizzard^^^^_ 11.38 __ 49.5 (not elig)

_30__ seaside60 _______ 34.28 ______ 44.5 (38)____ 98 __ Leo97t^^^^ _________ 7.85 __63.4 (not elig)

_  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _   135 __ Lettucing Gutted _____0.51 _160.4 (54)

____________________________________________________________________

^ has entered 6 of 7 contests.

^^ has entered 5 of 7 contests.

^^^ missed three (four entered) ...  ^^^^ missed four (three entered)

______________________________________________________________________

The ranking for average error allows those who haven't played every month to get a direct comparison with more frequent entrants who are naturally going to have a few more points, so this explains why some fairly good ranks for average error appear in the lower half of the scoring table. It helped to miss February. The average error there was over 60 mm. This past month ran up large errors also, however, almost everyone in the table played June. 

By the way, recent 30-year normal (1990-2019) would rank 3rd for points and 6th for average error, 1981-2010 is a bit lower at 7th/12th and our consensus is 10th/20th. 

We have been running larger errors this contest year than the first two. 

 

 

 

Stunned I'm doing as well as that

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The slight upward revision of EWP from the earlier provisional has no effect on contest scoring except to send a ripple through the average error portion. Basically almost everyone now has a slightly higher average error, but weather26 and LG dropped theirs slightly. It would break the tie for 32nd in average error, but other than that the table is still accurate albeit most of the average errors have gained a small amount (0.1-0.2 if you've played seven months, 0.2-0.3 for five or six months).

Points totals are also slightly affected for weather26 and jonboy, with the net result that weather26 moves up one ranking and snowray drops one; jonboy lost 0.16 points by falling out of a tie with weather26 for June, but remains in 16th which is despite missing one contest.

I will report on the CET-EWP combined rankings two more times in the contest year, perhaps after August and at the end of the contest year. 

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On 03/07/2020 at 12:36, JeffC said:

Stunned I'm doing as well as that

With a few exceptions we are all stumbling in the dark this year in the EWP portion of the contest, in fact even those who weren't stumbling had some trouble with June, and the contest has tightened up considerably as a result. The average errors are up considerably from previous two contest years. Meanwhile Radiating Dendrite had two almost perfect forecasts then dropped out after those. 

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Downloads -> Excel -> June 20 CET.xlsx

PDF -> Summary sheet June 20 Summary.pdf

Monthly
The temperature was 15.3c in June 2020, with 2 players getting it spot on
reef and February1978.

There were 46 players within 0.5c.

image.thumb.png.b3482ef486eb88023348f53180b68ab1.png

Seasonal
The Top 10 largely matches the monthly competition, with reef, February1978 and Steve B the 1-2-3.

image.thumb.png.92aa9c27e901652d720827bc4b4a7d36.png

Overall
A very similar top 3, Dancerwithwings stays in 1st, mb018538 remains 2nd with Stationary Front remaining 3rd, however the PIT is now joint 3rd.

image.thumb.png.8558e649f76014351d36851af1b90338.png

Edited by J10
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On 02/07/2020 at 21:05, North-Easterly Blast said:

August 2008 was actually close to, or just above older averages with a CET of 16.2; it was just how dull that month was that changes peoples perceptions of that month when it was not cool at all.   August 2010 was below average though at CET 15.3, and August 2014 is actually the coolest of recent times at 14.9, and the last cooler one was in 1993.  August 2017 was just below average, not by much.

Daytime temperatures were actually below average for August 2008 though, but warm nights made up for it so it was close to average overall. As most people care more about the day and not the night, it was considered a crap month by most people because of a lot of cool, cloudy and also wet weather.  Remember CET is average maximum day temperature plus average night temperature divided by two.

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On 05/07/2020 at 20:43, East Lancs Rain said:

Daytime temperatures were actually below average for August 2008 though, but warm nights made up for it so it was close to average overall. As most people care more about the day and not the night, it was considered a crap month by most people because of a lot of cool, cloudy and also wet weather.  Remember CET is average maximum day temperature plus average night temperature divided by two.

A proper cool August is one like 1986 - with a CET of only 13.7 it was the coolest in the last 64 years.  That month had a similar rainfall average to 2008 so it was only that August 2008 was like a much warmer version of August 1986.

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On 2 July 2020 at 21:05, North-Easterly Blast said:

August 2008 was actually close to, or just above older averages with a CET of 16.2; it was just how dull that month was that changes peoples perceptions of that month when it was not cool at all.   August 2010 was below average though at CET 15.3, and August 2014 is actually the coolest of recent times at 14.9, and the last cooler one was in 1993.  August 2017 was just below average, not by much.

The problem with August 2008 is that it's mean hides the fact that maximum wise, it was the coolest since 1993. Thats why a lot of people perceive it as cool, the lack of high maxima. They are correct to perceive this. It's the minima that kept the CET mean high. For summer months, maxima are far more important. Who remembers a minimum of 17C to a maximum of 31C?

 

Edited by Weather-history
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