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Just to let everyone know, the scores will be a little delayed this month. Probably will be out on Saturday.

EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June  _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered. _ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in

15.7c to the 27th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st Current low this month 13.0c t

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Sunny Sheffield at 12C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 27.3mm 37.4% of the monthly average

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13.0c to the 10th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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EWP at 19 mm by 10th added perhaps 5 mm yesterday, heavy rains in southwest England combined with some dry areas elsewhere.

The 10-day GFS suggests potential for 50 mm more by 21st, then maps for next six days perhaps 10 to 15 mm on top of that.

The 50 mm looks rather uncertain as a fair chunk of it comes after day five, so would say any estimates are very approximate. The estimates add up to 85-90 mm by end of the GFS run, nothing looming for days right after the run ends, so will say 70 to 100 mm range looks plausible, as to CET the trend is towards a dull warmth in the 15-17 range much of the time, from our current 13.0 that would suggest reaching high 14s to near 15 towards end of month. Still time for something different to show up in the 10-15 day time frame, either the almost regular late month warm spell or a return of some colder synoptics that have been seen on some recent runs but not so much today.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 11.9C -0.8C below average, Rainfall now at 36.9mm 50.5% of the monthly average.

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13.2c to the 11th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

13.2c to the 11th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

The only way is up.....sounds like a song I once knew ?

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Looking at the output to day 10 the models are in agreement again for now that days 9-10 (and beyond probably) look quite cool and wet. I00mm looks likely and although subject to change, below rather than above average. Win for the Euro if so.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Sunny Sheffield back to 12C due a warm night. -0.8C below normal. Rainfall up 44.8mm 61.4% of the monthly average.

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13.4c to the 12th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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EWP gaining steadily, at 35 mm after 11th and estimated 40 mm now, GFS ten day projection is about 25 mm on average with wettest values in the Midlands over 40, most of this is within next five days (days 6-10 essentially dry). The maps for days 11 to 16 verbatim would add 10-20 mm but much heavier amounts are shown not that far from southeast England towards end of run (on 29th). This means our overall total of about 80 mm has a large uncertainty factor, predictions between 70 and 120 mm are probably all in play. The CET still looks subject to a very gradual rise then levelling off near 14.5 to 15 eventually. 

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Sunny Sheffield at 12.3C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 44.8mm 61.4% of the monthly average.

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13.7c to the 13th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 12.6C -0.4C below average. Rainfall 58.1mm 79.6% of the average for the month.

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14.0c to the 14th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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EWP was 41 mm after 13 days and probably added only 1 mm on 14th, to stand at 42 mm. The ten-day projections show a grid average near 40 mm but it could be less if some of that is mostly over higher ground, then the last few days of the month (the GFS now runs to 1st of July) appear rather unsettled too. The total could be anywhere from 70 to 110 mm depending on how well the ten-day verified. 

The CET is likely to keep edging up now with some fairly warm conditions shown by middle of next week, could see 15.7 at least towards end of the month. To get to that we would need an average of about 17 C now to 30th. But some of the warmer days look like hitting 19-20 values so quite plausible we move through most of the 15 range before adjustments. 

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

14.0c to the 14th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

Despite some going on about a cool outlook only a few days ago, it is now looking warm across the CET zone for the foreseeable future.

Another well above average month looks odds on now.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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14.1c to the 15th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.3C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 64.2mm 87.9% of the monthly average.

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14.4c to the 16th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th & 10th

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EWP has probably passed 50 mm now and on its way to 100-120? 

So I looked at the table of entries, rather surprising to find only two entries above 80 mm, LG has his standard 200 mm and Weather26 went for 124 mm. 

The highest of all the others was 77.7 mm from Dog Toffee followed by 77 mm from Let It Snow! and bobd29. 

In most other months we get a more continuous spectrum of forecasts, this gap of 46.3 mm is unusual especially when it falls over top of the result as may be the case here. To finish fourth, Weather26 needs the outcome to be 99.5 mm or higher. That forecast is second at values of 100.9 mm to 161.9 mm, and LG takes a win if we can squeeze out 162.1 mm (tied at 162.0). But to reach even tenth place LG needs the outcome to reach 133 mm. LG can move up from tenth to second if final amounts rise from 133 to 138.9 mm. Otherwise the rest of the top ten (assuming we reach at least 77.7 mm and stay below 132 mm) would be East Lancs Rain (75 mm, 2d late, likely to drop two ranks from penalty), virtualsphere (72 mm), Jonboy (70 mm, one day late), SteveB and Blast from the Past (67 mm) and your host at 65.8 mm. The two normals are near the end of that list also. 

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.6C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall 67.9mm 93% of the monthly average.

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June looks like making up to some extent the very dry April and May. For some this week is turning into a notably wet one, and I suspect by its end many will have already reached average monthly totals with 10 days still to go.

Edited by damianslaw
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