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June 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Just to let everyone know, the scores will be a little delayed this month. Probably will be out on Saturday.

EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June  _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered. _ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in

15.7c to the 27th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st Current low this month 13.0c t

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Stormchaser in the other realm (Singularity here i believe) is estimated 14.3C to the 20th. 

On the rainfall point its worth saying that the location of some of the slack lows while drawing in warm air does also suggest the possibility of a quasi-stationary front to the north of the low so if the Euro output of last night and this morning holds then 100mm is not off the table. 

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On 03/06/2020 at 16:42, Roger J Smith said:

You had already entered at 14.9, 60 mm (see page 2). Do you want this revised forecast with late penalties for three days? You would gain points in both contests if you were right or if reality went to the other side of your changes, you would lose points on the penalties if reality is even halfway between the two and your forecasts were scoring about the same otherwise. I don't mind making the change to the table if that's what you prefer. 

I’ll go with my original please, oops

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Okay, noted ... latest GFS run seems to be somewhat cooler in general although not much, will say 14.5 the over-under by 22nd, and there's enough frontal activity to suggest an eventual 40-50 mm total towards the 22nd. I'll let you know if I remember at end of the month what difference plan B might have made in your scoring. 

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13.6c to the 6th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.6c to the 6th - No data on the 2nd

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1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Think I'm gonna be way over with my 16.0C prediction, unless something spectacular happens between now and month's end.

Same here with my 15.9c. I was poised to change it a couple of times down to 14.5c but it's been the kiss of death in the past when I have changed it, so thought to myself che sara', sara'....

Of course this is payback time for getting our Summer in April and May.

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7 hours ago, snowray said:

Same here with my 15.9c. I was poised to change it a couple of times down to 14.5c but it's been the kiss of death in the past when I have changed it, so thought to myself che sara', sara'....

Of course this is payback time for getting our Summer in April and May.

I think it's too early to say where the CET is likely to finish for June.  The models have trended warmer again today.

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2 hours ago, Don said:

I think it's too early to say where the CET is likely to finish for June.  The models have trended warmer again today.

True, never know, could warm up a fair bit the second half of June.

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Quite a chilly start to the month for us here with a mean of 11.3C (-1.9C) to the 8th.

The mean max for the month so far is only 15.0C. I suspect it wont go up very fast with the forecast onshore breeze over the next few days.

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Sunny Sheffield at 12.1C -0.4C below normal Rainfall unchanged. Possible low point for the month may sneak another drop for today and tomorrow.

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EWP reached 18 mm on 7th and probably still there now. The outlook is fairly unsettled now, another 25-30 mm shown on GFS over next ten days and potential for 15 to 25 mm more after that. Overall totals of about 65 mm suggested, near normal for June but with several days to go as GFS run only to 25th. The outlook is rather bland for temperatures, a cloudy looking scenario with near normal temperatures but likely cool days, mild nights. Would expect a slow increase after Thursday but perhaps so slow that we stay in the 13s for a while then into the low 14s. I don't see any real warmth on today's 06z run. 

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13.3c to the 8th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.3c to the 8th - No data on the 2nd

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I'm actually seeing the opposite to most of you. I think 16C looks a good bet right now. Uppers of 8C is still slightly above average for the time of year and looks like we might have that for some time. Regardless of daytime temperatures, I'd expect nighttime lows to be 12-15C from the weekend onwards, and all signs are that it's going to stay that way for some time. 

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13.0c to the 9th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.0c to the 9th - No data on the 2nd

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10 hours ago, sawan said:

Looks like it will be cloudier than average and might just be average or a little below.

BBC's monthly outlook has flipped on its head, they now suggest that it will get cooler towards the end of June and beginning of July it will be cooler and wetter ? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Don't ever really read BBC forecasts, but this outlook seems very plausible to me based on current immediate outlook. Next week warm for many - humid with some muggy mild nights, low-mid 20's perhaps far SE seeing some very warm uppers short space of time as a trough anchors itself to the NW. Into the third week the trough moves down over northern Britain on a southerly track and positions itself over Southern Scandi, azores high shoots back west and north becoming a mid atlantic high and we end up exposed to a cooler NW airstream - UK locked on the cooler side of the jet and with renewed vigour it pushes down another trough and we end up cool and cyclonic.

So perhaps tomorrow will see the low point in the CET then a rise, quite marked, CET then holding firm during last third of the month. Something a little above average looks quite possible.

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