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June 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests


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Just to let everyone know, the scores will be a little delayed this month. Probably will be out on Saturday.

EWP Annual Scoring (7 months) _ Updated for June  _ _ _ note: Avg error only compared if 5/7 to 7/7 contests entered. _ _ _ __ ___ ____ _____ lower half of scores for regular participants in

15.7c to the 27th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st Current low this month 13.0c t

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Table of forecasts for June 2020

_ number in brackets gives the order of entry of your last revised forecast _

 

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster ____________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

21.0 ___ 0.3 __ Thundershine ( 16 ) ____ 15.1 __ 41.0 __ Relativistic ( 5 )

20.5 __200.0__ Lettucing Gutted ( 1 ) ___ 15.1 __ 47.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 20 )

18.5 ___ 8.3 __ Shillitocettwo ( 12 ) _____ 15.1 __ 60.0 __ The PIT ( 33 )

16.5 __ 25.2 __ Polar Gael( 10 ) ________15.1 __ 44.0 __ DAVID SNOW ( 51 )

16.4 __ 77.0 __ Bobd29 ( 15 ) _________ 15.1 __ 48.0 __ mb018538 ( 52 )

16.4 __ 77.7 __ Dog Toffee ( 22 ) _______ 15.1 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front ( 54 )

16.3 __ 45.0 __ General Cluster ( 43 ) ___ 15.1 __ 36.0 __ Jacky ( 55 )

16.1 __ 53.5 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 30 ) __  15.1 __ ----- __ Summer Sun ( L1-5 )

16.0 __ 45.0 __ Earthshine ( 18 ) _______15.0 __ 40.0 __ Freeze ( 2 )

15.9 __ 36.5 __ snowray ( 19 ) _________15.0 __ 26.0 __ I Remember Atl 252 ( 11 )

15.9 __ ----- __ Mark Bayley ( 37 ) ______15.0 __30.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 24 )

15.9 __ 33.0 __ Wold Topper ( 60 ) ______ 15.0 __ 19.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 40 )

15.8 __ 40.0 __ B87 ( ) ______________15.0 __ 64.1 __ 2010cold ( 49 )

15.8 __ 55.0 __ stewfox ( 28 ) __________ 15.0 __ 47.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-4 ) _

15.8 __ 48.0 __ Born from the Void ( 44 ) _ 14.9 __ 50.0 __ NeilN ( 6 )

15.8 __ 50.0 __ J10  L1-8 ) ____________

15.7 __ 55.0 __ pegg24 ( 32 ) __________ 14.9 __ 60.0 __ prolongedSnowLover ( 21 )

15.7 __ 38.2 __Thundery Wintry Showers ( 47 )_14.9 __ ----- __ Man with Beard ( 41 )

15.7 __ 38.0 __ stargazer ( 61 ) _________14.9 __ 67.0 __ Blast from the Past ( L1-1 )

15.6 __ 54.0 __ Alderc ( ) ____________ 14.8 __ 35.0 __ weather-history ( 34 )

15.6 __ 37.0 __ seaside60 ( 50 ) ________ 14.8 __ 39.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 45 )

15.6 __ ----- __ Duncan McAlister ( L1-6) __14.7 __ 72.0 __ virtualsphere ( 17 )

15.6 __ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-7) _14.7 __ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 ( 62 )

15.5 __ 47.0 __ brmbrmcar ( 13 ) ________14.7 __ 63.0 __ Godber1 ( 59 )

15.5 __ 50.0 __ Twilight ( 23 ) __________ 14.6 __ 33.0 __ Timmytour ( 27 )

15.5 __ 40.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 25 ) __ 14.6 __ 57.0 __ Mulzy ( 53 )

15.5 __ 55.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 31 ) ________ 14.6 __ 69.7 __ 1990-2019 average

15.5 __ 45.0 __ Don ( 58 ) _____________14.5 __ 66.3 __ 1981-2010 average

15.4 __ 67.0 __ SteveB ( ) ___________ 14.4 __124.0__Weather26 ( 3 )

15.4 __ 41.9 __ CheesepuffScott ( 26 ) ___14.4 __ 55.0 __ daniel* ( 57 )

15.4 __ ----- __ sundog ( 36 ) ___________14.3 __ 55.0 __ syed2878 ( 29 )

15.4 __ ----- __ damianslaw ( 42 ) _______ 14.2 __ 60.0 __ JeffC ( )

15.4 __ ----- __ dancerwithwings ( L1-2 ) __ 14.2 __ 75.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( L2-1 )

15.3 __ 37.0 __ Reef ( 38 ) _____________13.9 __ 65.8 __ Roger J Smith ( 35 )

15.3 __ 51.0 __ February1978 ( 63 ) _____ 13.6 __ ----- __ Kentish Man ( 46 )

15.2 __ 49.0 __ Leo97t ( 39 ) ___________13.6 __ 70.0 __ Jonboy ( L1-3 )

15.2 __ 48.0 __ Norrance ( 48 ) _________ 13.3 __ 77.0 __ LetItSnow! ( 14 )

15.2 __ 35.0 __ davehsug ( 56 ) ________

15.2 __ 48.0 __ Consensus 

______________________________

63 forecasts (on time) so far, plus eight that are one day late, and one that is two days late,

... 72 total ... consensus 15.2

_ late entries accepted to end of 3rd June, will be added to table _ 

=====================================

EWP Forecasts in order

200 LG .. 124 wx26 .. 77.7 DT .. 77 LIS, bob .. 75 ELR^^ .. 72 virt  .. 70 jon^..  69.7 90-19 .. 67 Ste. BFTP^

 66.3 81-10 ... 65.8 RJS ... 64.1 2010cold ... 64 SF ... 63 Godb ... 60 Jef, PSL, PIT ... 57 Mul

 55 Stew, syed, DR(S)NO, pegg, dan* ...  54 Ald ... 53.5 Feb91 ... 51 Feb78 ...  50 NN, Twi, J10^

 49 Leo ... 48 BFTV, Norr, mb, con .. 47.4 KW... 47 brm, MIA^ ... 45 Earth, GC, Don ... 44 DS ... 41.9 CPS

 41 Rel ...  40 fre,B87,DRL ... 39 MrM ... 38.2 TWS ... 38 star ...  37 Reef, sea60 ... 36 Jacky

 36.5 snow ... 35 wx-h, dave ... 33 Tim, WT ...  30 SB ... 26 IRAtl ... 25.2 PG ... 19 EG ... 8.3 Shil ... 0.3 Thun

_______________

57 forecasts (on time) so far, plus four that are shown one day late (^) and one that is two days late (^^)

 ... 62 total. _ consensus 48.0 mm.

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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1981-2010 Daily and Cumulative Normals. plus Daily Extremes for June (1772-2019) and

 extreme daily values of running CET

_________________________________________________________________________

Date __ CET _ cum CET __ MAX _____ MIN _____________ Running CET extremes

01 ____ 13.5 __ 13.5 ___ 20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802&1962) ___ 20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802,1962)

02 ____ 13.8 __ 13.7 ___ 22.3 (1947) __ 7.6 (1991) ________ 21.6 (1947) __ 8.3 (1802)

03 ____ 13.4 __ 13.6 ___ 23.0 (1947) __ 7.9 (1773) ________ 22.0 (1947) __ 8.5 (1975)

04 ____ 13.2 __ 13.5 ___ 20.3 (1982) __ 8.0 (1871&1991) ___ 21.2 (1947) __ 8.7 (1975, 1991)

05 ____ 13.3 __ 13.4 ___ 21.3 (1982) __ 8.2 (1991) ________ 19.6 (1947) __ 8.6 (1991)

06 ____ 13.7 __ 13.5 ___ 22.5 (1950) __ 8.4 (1909) ________ 19.5 (1982) __ 9.2 (1989, 1991)

07 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 21.6 (1846) __ 8.6 (1814) ________ 19.2 (1982) __ 9.5 (1989, 1991)

08 ____ 13.9 __ 13.6 ___ 20.4 (1940) __ 8.6 (1881&1914) ___ 19.1 (1982) __ 9.6 (1989)

09 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 20.9 (1970) __ 7.3 (1816) ________ 19.0 (1982) __ 9.9 (1989)

10 ____ 14.3 __ 13.7 ___ 21.5 (1970) __ 8.2 (1821) ________ 18.6 (1982) _ 10.4 (1814,1916,1989,1991)

11 ____ 13.6 __ 13.7 ___ 21.0 (1970) __ 8.0 (1777) ________ 18.4 (1830) _ 10.4 (1909, 1991)

12 ____ 13.9 __ 13.7 ___ 20.8 (2006) __ 8.6 (1841) ________ 18.4 (1846) _ 10.4 (1909)

13 ____ 14.0 __ 13.7 ___ 20.5 (1818,1989) _ 8.5 (1901) _____ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

14 ____ 14.4 __ 13.8 ___ 19.4 (1814) __ 7.9 (1903) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

15 ____ 14.2 __ 13.8 ___ 22.9 (1858) __ 8.1 (1850) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

16 ____ 14.8 __ 13.9 ___20.7 (1858,1896) _ 9.6 (1869) _____ 18.7 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

17 ____ 15.0 __ 13.9 ___ 21.4 (1917) __ 9.1 (1928) ________ 18.8 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

18 ____ 14.8 __ 14.0 ___ 21.2 (2005) __ 8.1 (1855) ________ 18.9 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

19 ____ 15.2 __ 14.1 ___ 22.1 (2005) __ 7.3 (1795) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

20 ____ 15.1 __ 14.1 ___ 21.7 (1846) __ 9.0 (1795&1964) ___ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

21 ____ 14.4 __ 14.1 ___ 22.7 (1817) __ 9.8 (1903) ________ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.9 (1916)

22 ____ 14.6 __ 14.1 ___ 22.3 (1941) __ 9.0 (1823) ________ 19.2 (1846) _ 11.0 (1916)

23 ____ 14.8 __ 14.2 ___ 21.8 (1935) __ 9.4 (1823) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 11.2 (1916)

24 ____ 14.9 __ 14.2 ___ 22.0 (1935) __10.1 (1784)________ 18.8 (1846) _ 11.4 (1916)

25 ____ 15.3 __ 14.2 ___ 21.6 (1935) __ 8.7 (1835) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

26 ____ 15.3 __ 14.3 ___ 22.3 (1976) __ 9.7 (1835) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

27 ____ 15.6 __ 14.3 ___ 22.8 (1826) __10.2 (1862)________ 18.4 (1846) _ 11.6 (1916)

28 ____ 15.6 __ 14.4 ___ 22.6 (1976) __ 9.4 (1812) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1909,1916)

29 ____ 16.0 __ 14.4 ___ 22.4 (1976) __ 9.7 (1839) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1916)

30 ____ 15.8 __ 14.5 ___ 22.1 (1976) __ 9.1 (1839) ________ 18.2 (1846) _ 11.8 (1909,16,72)*

_____________________________________________________________________

* 11.5 before daily data began in 1675, that month may have had other earlier lower values than shown here. 

______________________________________________________________________

Last year the warmest day was 29th at 21.7 while the coldest day was the 11th at 10.2 C. These would have been records had they occurred four days earlier (29th) or on 24th or 27th for the coldest day. The 2nd (17.7) was also quite a warm day. It was generally cool from 4th to 22nd then much warmer in last seven or eight days of June, 2019. 

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16.5c to the 1st

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 16.5c to the 1st

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.5c to the 1st

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 16.5c to the 1st

That’s all about to change, rapidly. Wonder how much it will drop

 

BFTP

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9 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Another late one please - a cool and wetter 14.1c, 70mm

You had already entered at 14.9, 60 mm (see page 2). Do you want this revised forecast with late penalties for three days? You would gain points in both contests if you were right or if reality went to the other side of your changes, you would lose points on the penalties if reality is even halfway between the two and your forecasts were scoring about the same otherwise. I don't mind making the change to the table if that's what you prefer. 

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On 20/05/2020 at 14:00, Shillitocettwo said:

  June 2020 will be a record warm one. CET 18.5.C  It will be very anticyclonic and very dry too. Dry but not unusually warm at first with a few chilly nights but heat building in SE Europe at present will plume up in SE winds in the last 10 days giving temperatures breaking the all time record, 41.3.C and a night not dropping below 26.C following. The headlines will be all about schools closing again due to heat jus5 after some reopen due to Coronavirus. Will it last? No. This will be a front loaded Summer with a warm but very unstable July full of vicious thunderstorms and an absolutely abysmal August.

I’m not sure about that ?

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No update from Hadley yesterday

15.7c to the 3rd

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.7c to the 3rd - No data on the 2nd

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On 20/05/2020 at 14:00, Shillitocettwo said:

  June 2020 will be a record warm one. CET 18.5.C  It will be very anticyclonic and very dry too. Dry but not unusually warm at first with a few chilly nights but heat building in SE Europe at present will plume up in SE winds in the last 10 days giving temperatures breaking the all time record, 41.3.C and a night not dropping below 26.C following. The headlines will be all about schools closing again due to heat jus5 after some reopen due to Coronavirus. Will it last? No. This will be a front loaded Summer with a warm but very unstable July full of vicious thunderstorms and an absolutely abysmal August.

I hope you are wrong. That would be terrible. How are you coming up with such a dramatic forecast anyway?

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14.7c to the 4th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 14.7c to the 4th - No data on the 2nd

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It would appear that CET will bottom out around Sunday 7th at 13.5 or so, then make a gradual recovery towards 15 C by end of the current GFS run (21st). It will be fairly warm at times after the flow turns more easterly but there are enough disturbances involved to suggest sporadic rather than sustained warmth, then the end of the run is a kind of no man's land of colliding flow patterns, probably won't work out as shown anyway. In short, most CET forecasts are still in play, much depends on what happens in last ten days. 

The EWP looks like steadily picking up some rainfall to mid-week and reaching perhaps 20 mm. Then after that more likely just small gains and no reason to think it would be much different from 30 mm by the 21st, although it could be as high as 40-50 if each small system delivered some significant rainfall. There again, most forecasts still in play. 

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14.1c to the 5th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 1st
Current low this month 14.1c to the 5th - No data on the 2nd

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