June 2020 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Lettucing Gutted]

I believe its time for the June 2020 forecasts thread but I can't see it about so I'll start it again.

20.5C    Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

200 mm from Atlantic garbage and monsoons.

[Freeze]

I’ll go 15.0c and 40mm. Surely 20.5c cet can’t be possible along with 200mm from Atlantic rain Lol

[Roger J Smith]

Came close to opening two threads at the same moment here ... but I spotted this and it has the right thread title so I won't confuse the issue by starting a second thread. 

(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

includes all values 1981 to 2019 colour coded for warmest, middle and coolest thirds (13, 14, 12 due to ties). 

... last June was just on the boundary of the middle and coolest thirds. 

23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest)

16.1 ... 2003, 2018

16.0 ... 2017

15.9 ... 2006

15.7 ... 1992

15.5 ... 1982, 2005

15.3 ... 2004

15.2 ... 2010, 2016

15.1 ... 2000, 2007, 2014

15.0 ... 1993

14.9 ...

14.8 ... 1986, 2009 and the average for 2001-2019 (14.84).

14.72 .. 1822-1851 has the warmest 30-year average of 14.72. June is the only month where this maximum is before 1971-2000 (Dec).

14.66 .. 1991-2019 (emerging 1991-2020 average) ,,, closing in on 1822-1851. 

14.6 ... 1989 and average for 1990-2019 (14.63) 

14.5 ... 1984, 1994 ... average for 1981-2010,  also for 1701-1800

14.4 ... 1983, 1988, 1996, 2002

14.3 ... 1995, 2001 and average for all years 1659-2019 (14.33), also 1801-1900

14.2 ... 1998, 2019 and average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... 2015

13.9 ... 1999, 2008

13.8 ... 2011

13.6 ... 1990, 2013

13.5 ... 2012

13.2 ... 1981

12.8 ... 1987

12.7 ... 1985

12.1 ... 1991 (lone 8th coldest after 1689, 1698 at 12.0 tied 6th coldest)

11.9 ... 1749 (5th coldest)

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

__________________________________________________________________

At 16.1, 2003 and 2018 were tied 18th warmest which is the least extreme such ranking for any month in the period 1981 to 2019. The next in line is May (where May 1992 was tied 6th warmest). June is also the only month that has a more extreme cold rank since 1981 (June 1991 -- 8th coldest) than its warmest rank. From 2010 to 2015 December shared that distinction. Besides December 2010 (2nd coldest) and June 1991 (8th coldest) the only other months since 1981 with coldest 15 placements in the entire period of record since 1659 are Feb 1986 (5th coldest), March 2013 (tied 12th coldest), May 1996 (tied 13th coldest), Sept 1986 (tied 14th coldest), and Dec 1981 (tied 8th coldest). 

___________________________________________________________________

Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Sunday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

EWP contest

The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. 

Predict the June 2020 rainfall in mm.

160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2019

157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2019)

_69.7 mm __ mean 1990-2019

_ 66.5 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2019

_66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010

_16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2019 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum)

__4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2019

In recent years, 2019 _ 116.3 mm ___ 2018 _ 16.5 mm ___ 2017 _ 93.8 mm ___ 2016 _ 114.0 mm ___ 2015 _ 38.8 mm

____________ 2014 _ 49.8 mm ____ 2013 _ 37.6 mm ___ 2012 _ 160.1 mm ___2011 __ 82.0 ______ 2010 _ 42.7 mm.

- - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.2 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 0.1 points by order of entry. 

Good luck in both contests !!

_______________________________ > > > >

Edited May 19, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Weather26]

14.4C And a deluge of 124mm-Surely the weather has to break at some point.

[B87]

15.8c and 40mm

[Relativistic]

15.1C and 41mm.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Relativistic

[NeilN]

14.9c and 50mm por favor  

[JeffC]

14.2 C  & 60 mm ppn thanks

[Guest]

15.6C & 54mm

[SteveB]

15.4c and 67mm please

[Polar Gael]

16.5°C and 25.2mm for me please. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15.0C, 26mm

[Shillitocettwo]

  June 2020 will be a record warm one. CET 18.5.C  It will be very anticyclonic and very dry too. Dry but not unusually warm at first with a few chilly nights but heat building in SE Europe at present will plume up in SE winds in the last 10 days giving temperatures breaking the all time record, 41.3.C and a night not dropping below 26.C following. The headlines will be all about schools closing again due to heat jus5 after some reopen due to Coronavirus. Will it last? No. This will be a front loaded Summer with a warm but very unstable July full of vicious thunderstorms and an absolutely abysmal August.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Shillitocettwo

[Shillitocettwo]

Rainfall 8.3mm

 

[brmbrmcar]

15.5C and 47mm please.

[LetItSnow!]

a risky one...  13.3°C and 77mm

[Roger J Smith]

16.6 and 63.5 mm. That would make it the warmest June since 1976, but 1.6 short of the record in 1846. Seems like western Europe has become a stable location for persistent ridge development and the lack of aviation may lead to even sunnier skies than normal under any ridge that develops, which may heat things up slightly, however I foresee the pattern breaking down slowly near the end of June for a more unsettled start to July. Sort of like a forecast posted earlier but less extreme maybe? I do see that same pattern evolution though. 

[Bobd29]

Hi 16.4C for me with 77mm rain mainly from storms last 1/3 rd of the month.

[Leo97t]

4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

16.6 and 63.5 mm. That would make it the warmest June since 1976, but 1.6 short of the record in 1846. Seems like western Europe has become a stable location for persistent ridge development and the lack of aviation may lead to even sunnier skies than normal under any ridge that develops, which may heat things up slightly, however I foresee the pattern breaking down slowly near the end of June for a more unsettled start to July. Sort of like a forecast posted earlier but less extreme maybe? I do see that same pattern evolution though. 

Very different from the forecast you posted on the summer predictions thread. What's changed?

[Roger J Smith]

For me only the June portion has changed, I think the other earlier forecast on this thread that I referenced predicted that the pattern would stay bad in July and August but I would hold to what I said earlier for later July into August, improving again after the unsettled early part of July, later in the summer. So in my case I have only changed my mind about June and probably mid-June would be the most likely time for the heat to build. I might scale that 16.6 back closer to deadline if the models are not supportive of blocking. 

[Met.]

Hottest on record for sure. 21.3°C. 0.3mm rain.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Thundershine

[virtualsphere]

14.7C and 72mm please.

[Earthshine]

16.0C and 45mm please

[snowray]

15,9c and 36.5mm for me please.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15.1 C and 47.4 mm please