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Cyclone Amphan is forecast to intensify from Extremely Severe cyclonic storm to Super cyclonic storm today. The highest catefory for the Bay of Bengal (BoB).

Indian Met Dept have increased their storm surge forecast 3 to 5 metres now for Western Bengal and Bangladesh.

Storms usually occur in this region in April/May and October to mid December. 

may18aasatamphan.png

Edited by Jo Farrow
intensification to super
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The scale for intensity in the Bay of Bengal moves from (Named) cyclonic storm (cs) to severe cs, very severe cs, extremely severe cs and top level Super Cyclonic storm.

which is mentioned for Amphan. JTWC has 130kt sustained winds and 160kt gusts in the forecast https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html 

"NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. NAVGEM IS A SLIGHT WESTERN OUTLIER AND GALWEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SLIGHT EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE."

 

may18amphan.png

may18IMDcyclonicstorm.png

may18imdpath.png

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The cyclone is heading to a low lying area which is highly populated. Evacuation will be necessary if the track stays the same but also very tricky with the additional complication of covid-19.

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Unfortunately this has all the makings of an utter disaster, cyclones nowhere near as strong as this have resulted in tens, even hundreds of thousands of fatalities. Millions will be at risk on Ganges Delta. UKMet still has a 80knt system inland directly over Dhaka, which has a population of 22million mostly in tin shacks. This has potential in two days to cause as many fatalities as the official COVID-19 number has YTD. Off course most evacuation plans involve cramming lots of people in shelters so its a disastrous double whammy ?

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Amphan is weakening. Still a strong category 3 equivalent but some further weakening is possible before landfall.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Amphan is weakening. Still a strong category 3 equivalent but some further weakening is possible before landfall.

Thats a good thing.

Weather disasters and COVID 19 = apocalypse

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