Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020

[Polar Maritime]

[reef]

Haven't had a night without 8/8 cloudcover since the 1st, grrrr.

[Arnie Pie]

 

15 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

So the way I work these and I know people say you cant but here goes

Night/Morning of 8th/9th is at the 6pm Position

9th / 10th would be the 5pm position

10th/11th would be the 4pm position

11th/12th would be the 3pm Position (Tonight) and its why Scotland is doing so well with that chunk hanging just above 60 degrees North

So tomorrow if clear should also bear Fruit in the 2pm position

 

This theory has worked well since May 25th

Were definatly working towards the same theory Paul...Using the fact that Nasa believe the NLC`s transit completely around the pole over a period of 5 days

i`ve made a gif from the lasts 5 AIMS (05-09 June) to check this belief

Which kind of works ( if you count to 5 you can make out the clockwise transition )

which i make that 72° transit per day or 12 minutes on a clockface

hence the clockface guide

I`ll be the first to admit that there are to many varaibles to totally rely on this method...But i believe that there is some logical merit in it

Thinking back the best predictors we found last year was the array of European NLC webcams to the East of the UK...from where the NLC`s drift into the uk....and then theres always the current radar information (which i`m hoping that this year....Someone will be able to explain in laymens terms what they actually indicate)

anyway if your theory`s working for you then.....Stick

some clear skies wouldn`t go a miss either.

I know you`ll let us know if there` a show

[Arnie Pie]

On using the above method with the AIM from 3 days ago

three days = 11 o`clockish = big gap in the cloud

Also if you look at the area for 2 days out ie 1 o`clockish. that would used be used to predicit last nights chance`s

which worked out well for anyone in Europe who were fortunate enough to be under clear skies

So clouded out for tonight...Happy Hunting

 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Arnie Pie

[Arnie Pie]

Latest AIM for 10-06-2020

interesting article on 3D images @

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Arnie Pie

[Rush2019]

30 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Latest AIM for 10-06-2020

interesting article on 3D images @

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM

 

Enjoyed the article on corona pollen too.

[Weather-history]

19 hours ago, reef said:

Haven't had a night without 8/8 cloudcover since the 1st, grrrr.

Yes, weather has really intervened so far. 

[Arnie Pie]

latest AIM for 11-06-2020..... which shows up the scotish display perfectly

 

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

latest AIM for 11-06-2020..... which shows up the scotish display perfectly

 

nowt much at 2 oclock, so with the patchy cloud cover...i didnt bother.

[Phil Halper]

9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

nowt much at 2 oclock, so with the patchy cloud cover...i didnt bother.

Im trying to photograph NLC's in London. Was successful last Sat and my image made it to the front cover of Spaceweather.com. Bu I now want to get them with the land marks in the image. Tried again Friday and sat night.Its a long walk down to Tower Bridge.  Friday was very cloudy but I thought I saw them shining through gaps , Sat night ( well sun morning) clear skies but no NLC's . I'm trying to figure out how to know when the NLC will be good but all i have to go on so far are the radar echoes on this site:http://www.mstrf.eclipse.co.uk/PLOTS_LATEST-24-HOURS/nerc-mstrf-radar-mst_capel-dewi_latest-24-hours_m300.png

Friday saw very few and Sat had a bigger one so i was surprised to find no NLC . Am a bit lost now, hod you predict these things? Any tips most welcome, thanks

[Paul Sherman]

Simple Answer seems to be you cant predict them - you just have to put the effort in and hope for the best

Some times they are viewable in Norfolk and not in Scotland other times in South Wales and not in Norfolk - They just appear and then wane

Good luck in your ventures out

[Arnie Pie]

latest AIM for12-06-2020

[Arnie Pie]

3 hours ago, Phil Halper said:

I'm trying to figure out how to know when the NLC will be good but all i have to go on so far are the radar echoes on this site:http://www.mstrf.eclipse.co.uk/PLOTS_LATEST-24-HOURS/nerc-mstrf-radar-mst_capel-dewi_latest-24-hours_m300.png

Hi Phil....have a look at the links and posts from the last 5 pages... if that is the Aberystwyth radar site then I`m not sure they cover the Mesoshere or the Troposhere which are the layers at  which the NLC`s are present....all the relevant radar links are in the previous posts

and a discription of the 'clockface' method of prediction.. is on the previous page

[Rush2019]

29 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

latest AIM for12-06-2020

So, for tonight we are looking at the 1 o'clock position, and because they are not 'branched out' chances for a view from the uk are somewhat reduced or in fact very slim?   Please correct me if I'm wrong, I really want to get my head around this, thank you for your patience.

[Phil Halper]

43 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

So, for tonight we are looking at the 1 o'clock position, and because they are not 'branched out' chances for a view from the uk are somewhat reduced or in fact very slim?   Please correct me if I'm wrong, I really want to get my head around this, thank you for your patience.

Thanks I had a look through but I think we are missing something. . Thsi user on twitter predicted strong displays on the 6th and mentioned a few other factors. But i dont really get it . Here is some of their  text "Transient 50 MHz (6m) radio propagation to the Iceland and the Faroe Islands this morning, soon vanishing as ionisation clouds pass. PMSE also over Wales now. Can you explain these and how do I keep track of them?

Edited June 14, 2020 by Phil Halper

[Arnie Pie]

32 minutes ago, Phil Halper said:

Can you explain these and how do I keep track of them?

sorry mate....I wish i could....(i`m not really a welder)

We are all kind of learning as we go on....and having a bit of fun on the journey

Marcin Jadczyszyn  ‎Noctilucent clouds around the world

Ncl`s an hour ago in Poland

Edited June 14, 2020 by Arnie Pie

[Paul Sherman]

Yh to be honest you get a decent feel from our neighbours in Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Germany and Poland if they are gunna be around.

Recent post from both Germany at 56 degrees North and Denmark 55 degrees and zero NLCS tonight

[Arnie Pie]

51 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

So, for tonight we are looking at the 1 o'clock position, and because they are not 'branched out' chances for a view from the uk are somewhat reduced or in fact very slim?   Please correct me if I'm wrong, I really want to get my head around this, thank you for your patience.

Yes 1 o`clockish position......... where there`s is a small finger so low on the horizon....

a chance for a morning show due to the fact that there showing in poland atm

[Arnie Pie]

12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh to be honest you get a decent feel from our neighbours in Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Germany and Poland if they are gunna be around.

Recent post from both Germany at 56 degrees North and Denmark 55 degrees and zero NLCS tonight

and it`s very decent of them to be 'upstream' of us...and they are stickler for details

Edited June 14, 2020 by Arnie Pie

[mushymanrob]

Note the MAARS radar is stuck on the 9th.... pity i found that very useful whilst waiting for the latest daisy chart..

[Arnie Pie]

16 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

thank you for your patience.

Sorry Rush & @Phil Halper i`ve been a  bit storm fatigued and 'waspy' this weekend.

I`ll try to walk you through what i`m looking for

Take yesterday for instance.. looking at the Aim you can see there`s an arm of NCL`s protruding outwards to a lower latitude......just before the 1 o`clock position

If they held together for the 2 day`s of clockwise transit around to the 6 o`clock position...Then there`s a chance!...it`s going to to be in our general area

Next

I would check the two radar sites for any signals and start checking the vast array of NLC cams over Eurpoe is keep an eye on social media for sightings in real time...this for me is Facebook  

dont forget that anything observed over Europe will naturally transit it`s way to the UK from E to W

That`s what went through my head yesterday when i began to hear reports from Poland....They might be here by morning....so because it`s a game of 2 halves post sunset/ pre dawn....I decided to stop up on the chance!

We can report "55 degrees and zero NLCS tonight"

But there was a Chance

I know from life experience you only get out what you put in and nothing is guaranteed

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2020 by Arnie Pie

[Arnie Pie]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Note the MAARS radar is stuck on the 9th.... pity i found that very useful whilst waiting for the latest daisy chart..

Yes Rob....it took me a couple of day`s to relise that it was stuck on the 09th.....i thought we were in NLC Armageddon for a while.....Im sure it will be up soon

[Rush2019]

18 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Sorry Rush & @Phil Halper i`ve been a  bit storm fatigued and 'waspy' this weekend.

I`ll try to walk you through what i`m looking for

Take yesterday for instance.. looking at the Aim you can see there`s an arm of NCL`s protruding outwards to a lower latitude......just before the 1 o`clock position

If they held together for the 2 day`s of clockwise transit around to the 6 o`clock position...Then there`s a chance!...it`s going to to be in our general area

Next

I would check the two radar sites for any signals and start checking the vast array of NLC cams over Eurpoe is keep an eye on social media for sightings in real time...this for me is Facebook  

dont forget that anything observed over Europe will naturally transit it`s way to the UK from E to W

That`s what went through my head yesterday when i began to hear reports from Poland....They might be here by morning....so because it`s a game of 2 halves post sunset/ pre dawn....I decided to stop up on the chance!

We can report "55 degrees and zero NLCS tonight"

I know fom life experience you only get out what you put in and nothing is guaranteed

 

 

 

Most helpful, and thank you.

[mushymanrob]

Daisy chart not good for tonight but is looking better for tomorrow night. 

[Arnie Pie]

Latest AIM for 13=06-2020

and i agree @mushymanrob  .....could be a chance for tomorrow