Jump to content

Recommended Posts

With NASA`s AIM spacecraft beginning to publish it`s Northern hemisphere images...although not likely to show for a couple of weeks now seems the right time to start this topic

below are the latest predictions for the upcoming NLC season

NOCTILUCENT CLOUD FORECAST: Last summer, sky watchers in the northern hemisphere witnessed the finest outbreak of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) ever. Normally confined to polar regions, the rippling blue clouds spread as far south as Las Vegas, Nevada, and Los Angeles, California, smashing old records for low-latitude visibility. One of the brightest displays occurred over Paris, France:

kulik-Bertrand-IMG_9721p_1561465017_lg.thumb.jpg.05053894224b2d089694964b0e78fef6.jpg

"On June 21, 2019, the day of the summer solstice, these rare noctilucent clouds were visible over Paris," says photographer Kulik Bertrand. "It was amazing!"

NLCs are Earth's highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids, they float at the edge of space more than 80 km above the ground. The clouds form when summertime wisps of water vapor rise up to the mesosphere, allowing water to crystallize around specks of meteor smoke.

Given that 2019 was such a record-breaker, researchers are naturally wondering what will happen in 2020. Could NLCs spread even farther south? To try to answer that question, Lynn Harvey of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics has taken a look at data from NASA's Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). She prepared the following plots, which show moisture and temperature in the mesosphere for the past 14 years--including 2020:

data.thumb.jpg.37c659a2b315b796eb29bd749db0ae0b.jpg

Moisture and temperature are key ingredients of NLCs. The clouds flourish when the mesosphere is cold and wet. Harvey's plots show 2020 (red) splitting right down the middle of other recent years.

"So far, 2020 is shaping up to be fairly average," says Harvey. In other words, 2020 does not look a repeat of 2019.

No one will know for sure, however, until NLC season actually begins. Daily images of NLCs from NASA's AIM spacecraft are posted right here on Spaceweather.com. "Based on the MLS data, I would guess that the first NLCs will be spotted in two weeks or so," she says. Stay tuned to see if the forecast is correct!

Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 598
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

A few of the hundreds I took between 130am and 330am and finally crashed into bed at 430am Zzzzzzzz First one NLCs and Comet Neowise Second one was when the NLCs were showing off  Pictu

Like this one at the end of the night at 315am

A few from my first ever attempts last night. Kept it local so foreground is kinda naff...  

Posted Images

  • 2 weeks later...
12 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

Good to hear from @Cal5 and @mushymanrob

Heres to another roller coaster of a NCL season and the first indications are starting to appear from the AIM Satelllite

current_daisy.thumb.png.6d75275a49562465bf1aa32c8963992e.png

 

what a pity thats 4 days ago now. the delay in posting hinders prediction...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 21/05/2020 at 07:58, mushymanrob said:

what a pity thats 4 days ago now. the delay in posting hinders prediction...

Thinking back the best predictors we found last year was the array of European NLC webcams to the East of the UK...from where the NLC`s drift into the uk

and then theres always the current radar information (which i`m hoping that this year....Someone will be able to explain in laymens terms what they actually indicate)

Tuesday evening`s(19-5) growing NLC clouds...at around the 75-80° latitude. Which from last years experience would have been visible at around the 5-10° altitude...unfortunately they was clouded out imby

1892497276_current_daisyfri.thumb.png.9ba551e1f55859c4d372f9572a6ff4d0.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dreckly said:

I've found this which may be of interest

WWW.CHILBOLTON.STFC.AC.UK

 

Has Cloud radar etc

CATALOGUE.CEDA.AC.UK

 

Excellent links here Dreckly.....especially the Interpreting the images section from the Chilbolton Weather Web

Thanks

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Contains observation data that may be of interest

angeo-38-61-2020-avatar-web.png
WWW.ANN-GEOPHYS.NET

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Stratospheric Observations of Noctilucent Clouds (SONC) experimental campaign was conducted on the night of 5–6 July 2018 with the aim...

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Hmmmm now if i remember this right, those clouds at 9 o'clock from 3 days ago should be about to our north tonight? Are we in with a chance?

 

nocti....jpg21.thumb.png.a5fededb6ec16ef754d2b95250e4cec7.png

Excuse the delay Rob...i was awaiting the publication of the latest AIM image before bringing up the `clock method prediction` ...As you can see Ive posted the image next to it`s previous image in your quote

Definatley a clockwise motion but as we found out last year these tricky buggers can appear,disappear,shrink or expand at will

There expanding in area and down to favourable latitudes atm...whether they will expand to cover the pole to the extent of last year...only time will tell

For anyone who`s not familiar with the clockface method of prediction

NASA believe this takes 5 days to complete a complete a clockwise transit around the pole... which to my calculation are 72 degrees transit per day.

Now look at the AIM satallite image as if it were a clockface.....with the UK being at the 6 o`clock position

With the AIM satallite images being 2 days old on publication

therefore to gauge approx where we are at present we must move anti-clockwise from the 6 o`clock (Uk position).....2 days transit ( 144 degree`s ) which would bring us somewhere between the 1 and 2 o`clock

So what we see on the daily published AIM images....if there is a a mass of cloud between 1 and 2 o`clock position...then logically the mass of clouds will have transited around and be at the 6 o`clock position that night

Certainly no scentific evidence with this theory just blind logic....which in a way, kind of worked last season

Perhaps we should call it the Hydroxychloroquine clock face theory

On 23/05/2020 at 13:46, Dreckly said:

Contains observation data that may be of interest

still tippy toeing my way through some proper scientific data

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies if this has already been linked

ED-CO.NET

Information on what noctilucent cloud is and how to observe and report sightings.

 

  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Forecast is clear overnight and the radar indications are picking up signals above the Baltic..I think it may be worth keeping an eye on the cams this evening

maarsy_dbs_meso_pow24_wbg.thumb.png.554b52d6457d577cc817269a7f746db2.png

more cams in Poland

KAMERY.HUMLNET.CZ

Webove kamery ve vysokem rozliseni - technologie firmy HDcam s.r.o.

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Cal5 said:

Several reports on the NLC Facebook group of sightings last night across Europe, including the UK. Promising early signs. ?

Yes Cal...I was up and ready overnight and although nothing spectacular jumped out of the sky...I believe that they were present imby....very faint at around 10-15° altitude

noc.thumb.jpg.fd2921f8848474044e73b06db9d1c87b.jpg

 

I`ll post the latest AIM images later when published

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Yes Cal...I was up and ready overnight and although nothing spectacular jumped out of the sky...I believe that they were present imby....very faint at around 10-15° altitude

noc.thumb.jpg.fd2921f8848474044e73b06db9d1c87b.jpg

 

I`ll post the latest AIM images later when published

 

what time are they usually published?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Yes Cal...I was up and ready overnight and although nothing spectacular jumped out of the sky...I believe that they were present imby....very faint at around 10-15° altitude

noc.thumb.jpg.fd2921f8848474044e73b06db9d1c87b.jpg

 

I`ll post the latest AIM images later when published

 

What sort of Camera settings you doing for that picture please Arnie ?

Is it Low F Stop and Medium range ISO ?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

what time are they usually published?

Going on last season...normally late afternoon on weekdays but always much later on a weekend

57 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

What sort of Camera settings you doing for that picture please Arnie ?

Is it Low F Stop and Medium range ISO ?

Lens EF 28-90mm...shot @3.6"  f5.6  ISO 250...still very faint at these settings  so i added a touch of local contrast.

normally these settings work well

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Memorial day in the US.....Hence the publishing delay

latest AIM and Radar....

current_daisy23.thumb.png.c009ca5810fa9366c632976c0154e698.png

maarsy_dbs_meso_pow24_wbg.thumb.png.46d8a85ed6ae48d09f92590d7380c892.png

Edited by Arnie Pie
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Latest Aim...Expanding and strenghening

current_daisy24.thumb.png.6afd86aa2ea908415f1f218e35ca5ce9.png

latest Baltic cams showing NLC`s at low altitude

394445325_latestbaltic.thumb.jpg.22a7ab758fac3c782b9fb12eb10458a2.jpg

Edited by Arnie Pie
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I feel your frustration Rob...last season they was always updated to www.spaceweather.com by tea time at the latest This season they are being publlshed anytime after 9pm.....whether it`s because of their Bank holiday or this may be the new norm....Only time will tell

I`ve made a clockface image based on the 5-day trancition period of the NLC`s clockwise journey around the pole..to help with any new-comers understand to what were crapping on about.......all in good fun

ie; 12 minutes = 1 Days transition

current_daisy24.thumb.png.bb3ded7880c1692f76d72ad9d8fb27e2.png

I`ve found that a more accurate way of accessing your chances for that evenings veiwing are via the Norwegian webcams or via social media.....althought I dont Tweet....I have found this Face book page to have relevant updates.... `noctilucent clouds around the world`......I`m still working on the radar interpretations but.... hey we`ll get there

Edited by Arnie Pie
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...