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13 minutes ago, swebby said:

Just how often does this happen exactly?

 

two_atl_2d3.thumb.png.ef0e114ba4dd40fc146a93fbf3dff92c.png

 

I can think of one or two tropical storms/depressions that have meandered about the Azores, headed north, become ex-tropical and then head back south and become tropical again.  I think last year there was also a depression that headed off Novia Scotia and took a southerly enough track to become a very short lived TS.  But formation off the coast of Portugal?

The one that springs to mind for me is Ophelia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

 

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3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The one that springs to mind for me is Ophelia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

 

Ah yes!

Red sun and the end of the world!

Orphelia did at least gain tropical characteristics south of the Azores, if that advisory pans out (low chance) then i would assume this could be the most northerly formation in the eastern Atlantic by quite some distance. 

Just looking up medicanes and i was not aware that the NOAA did actually designate one a TS in 2011 (Rolf) 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Rolf

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4 hours ago, swebby said:

Just how often does this happen exactly?

 

two_atl_2d3.thumb.png.ef0e114ba4dd40fc146a93fbf3dff92c.png

 

I can think of one or two tropical storms/depressions that have meandered about the Azores, headed north, become ex-tropical and then head back south and become tropical again.  I think last year there was also a depression that headed off Novia Scotia and took a southerly enough track to become a very short lived TS.  But formation off the coast of Portugal?

There was blink and you miss it Pablo last year

 

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Question for anyone in the know.  The NHC have officially classed Rene as being dispersed, but a couple of the models (on Tropicatidbits) now show it possibly re-intensifying back to a Tropical Storm, would it keep the same name (as it's the same Low), or be given a new one?

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25 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Question for anyone in the know.  The NHC have officially classed Rene as being dispersed, but a couple of the models (on Tropicatidbits) now show it possibly re-intensifying back to a Tropical Storm, would it keep the same name (as it's the same Low), or be given a new one?

I think it will remain Rene, that's what happened with Harvey in 2017 if I recall.

The amount of tropical systems in the Atlantic right now is remarkable. No classic Cape Verde storms developing huge ACE totals, just a constant supply of tropical systems.

Paulette looks as though it will weaken now. I think Teddy may become a major. 98l is also worth keeping an eye on.

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1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

There was blink and you miss it Pablo last year

 

Oooo, good catch Jo, i'd forgotten all about Pablo. 

It still took on sub-tropical then tropical characteristics while south west of the Azores, i'm wondering if there is anything that became a tropical cyclone between Portugal and the Azores, especially if the initial depression had originated from the NE?

 

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1 hour ago, Ryukai said:

Question for anyone in the know.  The NHC have officially classed Rene as being dispersed, but a couple of the models (on Tropicatidbits) now show it possibly re-intensifying back to a Tropical Storm, would it keep the same name (as it's the same Low), or be given a new one?

Some of the ones i'm trying to remember  in regards to extreme NE forming storms, that is the ones that meandered around the Azores switching between tropical and extra tropical and back to tropical i believe did retain the name.

Edit - Leslie 2018 is one of the ones i'm thinking of

non tropical low -> sub tropical low -> sub tropical storm Leslie -> subtropical depression -> extra tropical low -> subtropical storm Leslie -> TS Leslie -> Hurricane Leslie

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Leslie_(2018)

2nd edit - Harvey 2005 is another.  2005 was also a year for some very north easterly formed storms like Vince.

Edited by swebby
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3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think it will remain Rene, that's what happened with Harvey in 2017 if I recall.

The amount of tropical systems in the Atlantic right now is remarkable. No classic Cape Verde storms developing huge ACE totals, just a constant supply of tropical systems.

Paulette looks as though it will weaken now. I think Teddy may become a major. 98l is also worth keeping an eye on.

Paulette, Teddy and 98L are fairly typical Cape Verde Hurricanes.

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Paulette is now racing north east and beginning it’s extra-tropical transition, it is currently at 105mph, 965mb.

Vicky is a 50mph Tropical Storm forecast to weaken and die.

Teddy has a thread given its like strength and track.

98L is now at 70% and has very good prospects.

 

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I know a lively season was forecast, but how often do you see seven storms being tracked?

They're going to run out of names soon!

Edit: knew something was in place of that happened - they turn to the Greek alphabet. Which has only happened once before, in 2005, which was the Katrina year:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/climate/hurricane-names-2020.html

1C49DA69-E58F-4339-9E9A-AE6274AF5188.jpeg

Edited by lottiekent
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Paulette, Teddy and 98L are fairly typical Cape Verde Hurricanes.

They aren't big ACE generators though, like the big Cape Verde storms such as Irma 2017, Isabel 2003 etc. This year has seen a very high number of storms but ACE is at only 64 units so far and the seasonal average is around 100. Irma in 2017 alone generated more units than this as many storms this season have been weak and short lived. Teddy and 98l may become majors however.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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17 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

They aren't big ACE generators though, like the big Cape Verde storms such as Irma 2017, Isabel 2003 etc. This year has seen a very high number of storms but ACE is at only 64 units so far and the seasonal average is around 100. Irma in 2017 alone generated more units than this as many storms this season have been weak and short lived. Teddy and 98l may become majors however.

You’ve selected two category 5’s, that’s highly abnormal statistically.

This season may not be a 04/05/17 stonker in terms of major ACE contributors but is doing just fine and we are likely have an above average hurricane/major hurricane total and likely ACE total. 

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5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

You’ve selected two category 5’s, that’s highly abnormal statistically.

This season may not be a 04/05/17 stonker in terms of major ACE contributors but is doing just fine and we are likely have an above average hurricane/major hurricane total and likely ACE total. 

Looking at previous seasons with high ACE, you get years with many storms but often tending to be weaker or years with less storms but with big ACE contributors. 2020 has definitely been the former so far.

It's fairly common nowadays to get at least one cat 4 or cat 5 storm recurving to the western North Atlantic each season after progressing westwards from Cape Verde. The strongest we have had so far is Paulette for the moment.

Agree that we will have an above average ACE total overall, just also notable for the number of weak storms too.

Of course the exception to this has been the Gulf of Mexico with Laura, which doesn't bode well for October when the focus turns to storm formation here.

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9 hours ago, lottiekent said:

I know a lively season was forecast, but how often do you see seven storms being tracked?

They're going to run out of names soon!

Edit: knew something was in place of that happened - they turn to the Greek alphabet. Which has only happened once before, in 2005, which was the Katrina year:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/climate/hurricane-names-2020.html

1C49DA69-E58F-4339-9E9A-AE6274AF5188.jpeg

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10470-one-name-left-on-the-atlantic-hurricane-list-then-what

It's very busy, Teddy is now a hurricane

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Worth saying they’ve skipped Q and U and will skip X, Y, Z I think so we might have to factor that in technically.

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57 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Worth saying they’ve skipped Q and U and will skip X, Y, Z I think so we might have to factor that in technically.

Dont know what they'll do if we have a major Greek alphabet named storm that needs retiring.

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4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Worth saying they’ve skipped Q and U and will skip X, Y, Z I think so we might have to factor that in technically.

😢 wonder why, they could easily use the names Queenie, Ursula, Xander, Yasmine and Zelda..... 

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Isn't a Chart like this supposed to be the opening shot in some Hollywood "Global Climate Catastrophe" Sci Fi Movie from the mid 1990's?........

image.thumb.png.0f10eadb92f2c218c2ed99ce8cd14cb7.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

EDIT: Oh ,and let's not forget the one in the Med. of course........

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Paulette was declared extra-tropical yesterday, peak intensity was 105mph.

Sally made landfall yesterday and the last advisory has been issued, peak intensity was 100mph. 

Vicky is still a weak Tropical Storm but devoid of most convection and weakening, peaked at 50mph. 

Teddy has a thread, peak intensity yesterday was 100mph so far.

98L is now at 60% and the long term outlook has deteriorated. It has a ~72 hour window before it picks up shear from Teddy. 

90L off the Mexico coast is now at 90mph and forecast to move slowly north east before a potential turn to the west. Conditions look excellent upwelling aside for strengthening. SHIPS has high RI potential (57% chance of ~80KT hurricane in 72 hours is 11 times the mean).

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And we have TS Wilfred , subTropicalStorm Alpha (landfall Portugal) and TS Beta today 

sept18betaNHC.png

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