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Wave approaching the islands has now been declared 97L and increased to 50%. Shear is weak for the next 6 days and becomes fairly divergent from day 3. Moisture and SST's are also good and system speed slows over time. 

Limited model support right now however, not sure why. 

Wave behind has been increased to 60%, main difference being that it may track north of the islands. Euro has developed this on consecutive runs now. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Just sticking this astonishing GOES snapshot from the NOAA in here. If there were anymore in the Atlantic we'd have to start to dob them in for breaking "the rule of six"!  

Moving across to the Indian Ocean and a worrying disturbance has formed over the Bay of Bengal. With SSTs much above the average at 31C and low wind shear I fear this will be a bad one. The hot SSTs a

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Models really starting to get interested in future 98l. Too early to call with track or intensity but a broad WNW track towards the Leewards and perhaps close or just at North of the greater Antilles. From there if the ridging is strong enough a US threat is possible but that's a little way down the path still.

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From NOAA..

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of days while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly westward, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

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Then there were 3.....

Another area of interest, still on mainland Africa, has now been added to the NOAA plot!

Cape Verde Storm anyone?

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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in association with a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. After that time, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. An elongated area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that the low is not well-defined, environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Latto

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2 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

What are the modles showing for these 3 in the Atlantic 

Minimal operational support from the Euro however some ensemble support.

For 97L the problem is that like Earl 16 it won't have much time to intensify before making landfall in the Yukatan so even with SHIPS suggesting a 50% chance of RI it will struggle to do more than  become a low grade hurricane. In the GOM it then has the same time problem and initially the low dragging it north shearing it. So an exciting weekend potentially but probably little more from 97L.

For 98L we again have poor operational support as there is an upper low north of Haiti which may kill it however if it survives and stays north of the islands a lot of ensembles do develop it and the track is more or less straight for Florida.

 

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The Atlantic currently has two named storms (#Laura and #Marco) in the tropics (<=23.5°N) and west of 65°W. The most recent time that this occurred was September 7-9, 2017 (Irma and Katia).

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Yes, 99L now at 80%.

Reasonable speed slowing over time, track is WNW before turning more NW on approach to a Yukatan landfall, good and increasing moisture and light to almost no shear, fairly divergent. 

 

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90L off the Carolinas has become TD15 however it move out to sea and is unlikely to do more than annoy the models in our local as they absorb its energy. Not worth a thread so i have not created one.

99L still had an open center according to an ASCAT scan last night. 

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91L now south of Cape Verde has a 70% chance of development. Shear forecast drops off in 48 hours or so although it's a slow moving and erratic system (ignore the other two). 

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So firstly with the Mandarin and cherry the Euro develops both, the GFS (more likely i suspect) develops one broad circulation. We then have the problem that while shear is weak so are the steering currents due to the cut-off upper low (essentially the normal easterlies underneath the Azores High are being disrupted so that the system either wants to drift north west or feel the low and move north east - the western system is the one to look at in the chart below).

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What we then have afterwards is a more interesting setup as the cut-off low weakens over time and the GFS and Euro nicely split themselves between two outcomes.

For the GFS we see the normal outcome of a slow moving strengthening system which is that eventually a trough comes to pick it up (the first chart shows the upper low now gone and the high centered east of our system so the low near the east coast comes to pick it up - would have if GFS did not develop the low behind and swallow it)

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For the Euro things are a bit more interesting as instead of a trough, the Euro built another higher high this morning and so there's more westward pressure. It still looks like a low is approaching so i'd bet on a closer recurve but we start to move into the realms of timing for the escape.

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So Invest 93L has literally just formed and just entered the waters off of the West Coast of Africa.

It's already pushing out what appears to be Gravity Waves! and has what appears to be closed circulation...  Got a feeling in my gut that this ones gonna turn into a doozy!

1300206717_93Lgravitywave.thumb.gif.6c5415d454d6d9bde432ef0f3c6f408e.gif

 

Edited by Ryukai
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6 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

Are any of these potential storms heading for land

Yes, America...too early for any more accuracy than that.

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