Hurricane season 2020

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

Well below average shear now.

[summer blizzard]

Less confidence than normal as i had to exclude the QBO as a forecasting tool but i believe that the analogue seasons below are our best match for the season to come based on ONI and PDO expectations in Q3 (54 and 64 were also at solar minimum like 20 albeit the other 3 were all between peak and minimum so at least trending to us). 

2016

2005

1970

1964

1954

I opted to scrub both the 1970 and 2005 seasons as outliers on either side leaving 2016, 1964 and 1954 as our best matches. 

My prediction for August-October therefore is..

8-10 Named Storms

4-6 Hurricanes 

2-4 Major Hurricanes

Plus at a minimum the 6 Tropical Storms already formed and anything that forms afterward (so at least 15-4-2).

In terms of timings nothing surprising with the major hurricanes all forming in the mid-August to mid-October period. 

Interestingly of the 11 Major Hurricanes which formed in the 1954, 1964 and 2016 seasons, only two of them in 2016 did not make eventual landfall. 

Also interestingly those 9 hits bar 2 of them were all on Cuba/Haiti/eastern US. Indicative of most of them tending to form out in the MDR rather than in the Gulf. 

In terms of ACE totals 1954, 1964 and 2016 range from 111 to 170 so above normal to hyperactive. 

 

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Invest 99L is now a Cherry. Track is into the Caribbean however their is dry air which will cause a problem for a while. 

Updated: Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better organized. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today. Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 90%, needs to get named before Friday to beat 2005 though.

[summer blizzard]

Now TD7.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[philglossop]

Unless the winds move and it curves (any ideas), could this be a rare Trinidad tracking storm? 

[summer blizzard]

91L in the Gulf Of Mexico appears to be developing low level westerlies suggesting a circulation may be forming. Expected to hit Texas as a TS should it form. 

92L is soon to drop off Africa and models have been quite bullish about a FISH but a potentially strong one. 

[Thunder Snow]

Nhc have gonzalo as a hurricane tomorrow

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note the years with active hurricane seasons brought generally colder drier conditions late autumn, early winter... well 95, 05, 10 and 17 did. 

Edited August 6, 2020 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

On 06/08/2020 at 23:27, damianslaw said:

Interesting to note the years with active hurricane seasons brought generally colder drier conditions late autumn, early winter... well 95, 05, 10 and 17 did. 

High ACE is correlated to high O-zone transport to polar latitudes. 

..

95L now a Mandarin. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

High ACE is correlated to high O-zone transport to polar latitudes. 

..

95L now a Mandarin. 

Hadn't spotted this SB...

Any references?

 

MIA 

[summer blizzard]

13 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hadn't spotted this SB...

Any references?

 

MIA 

Could not tell you, it's what i have read from others. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

So 'Josephine' becomes the earliest 'J' storm in the Atlantic Basin..........

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

Updated forecast to take into account pre-August activity is..

17-19 Named Storms

6-8 Hurricanes 

2-4 Major Hurricanes

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

Two new waves at 40% in the MDR. The one at the front takes an interesting track but the EPS have backed off over the last 24 hours. The second one has decent support.

Edited August 16, 2020 by summer blizzard