Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
13 minutes ago, swebby said:

Just how often does this happen exactly?

 

two_atl_2d3.thumb.png.ef0e114ba4dd40fc146a93fbf3dff92c.png

 

I can think of one or two tropical storms/depressions that have meandered about the Azores, headed north, become ex-tropical and then head back south and become tropical again.  I think last year there was also a depression that headed off Novia Scotia and took a southerly enough track to become a very short lived TS.  But formation off the coast of Portugal?

The one that springs to mind for me is Ophelia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The one that springs to mind for me is Ophelia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2017)

 

Ah yes!

Red sun and the end of the world!

Orphelia did at least gain tropical characteristics south of the Azores, if that advisory pans out (low chance) then i would assume this could be the most northerly formation in the eastern Atlantic by quite some distance. 

Just looking up medicanes and i was not aware that the NOAA did actually designate one a TS in 2011 (Rolf) 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Rolf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
4 hours ago, swebby said:

Just how often does this happen exactly?

 

two_atl_2d3.thumb.png.ef0e114ba4dd40fc146a93fbf3dff92c.png

 

I can think of one or two tropical storms/depressions that have meandered about the Azores, headed north, become ex-tropical and then head back south and become tropical again.  I think last year there was also a depression that headed off Novia Scotia and took a southerly enough track to become a very short lived TS.  But formation off the coast of Portugal?

There was blink and you miss it Pablo last year

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

Question for anyone in the know.  The NHC have officially classed Rene as being dispersed, but a couple of the models (on Tropicatidbits) now show it possibly re-intensifying back to a Tropical Storm, would it keep the same name (as it's the same Low), or be given a new one?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
25 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Question for anyone in the know.  The NHC have officially classed Rene as being dispersed, but a couple of the models (on Tropicatidbits) now show it possibly re-intensifying back to a Tropical Storm, would it keep the same name (as it's the same Low), or be given a new one?

I think it will remain Rene, that's what happened with Harvey in 2017 if I recall.

The amount of tropical systems in the Atlantic right now is remarkable. No classic Cape Verde storms developing huge ACE totals, just a constant supply of tropical systems.

Paulette looks as though it will weaken now. I think Teddy may become a major. 98l is also worth keeping an eye on.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

There was blink and you miss it Pablo last year

 

Oooo, good catch Jo, i'd forgotten all about Pablo. 

It still took on sub-tropical then tropical characteristics while south west of the Azores, i'm wondering if there is anything that became a tropical cyclone between Portugal and the Azores, especially if the initial depression had originated from the NE?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 hour ago, Ryukai said:

Question for anyone in the know.  The NHC have officially classed Rene as being dispersed, but a couple of the models (on Tropicatidbits) now show it possibly re-intensifying back to a Tropical Storm, would it keep the same name (as it's the same Low), or be given a new one?

Some of the ones i'm trying to remember  in regards to extreme NE forming storms, that is the ones that meandered around the Azores switching between tropical and extra tropical and back to tropical i believe did retain the name.

Edit - Leslie 2018 is one of the ones i'm thinking of

non tropical low -> sub tropical low -> sub tropical storm Leslie -> subtropical depression -> extra tropical low -> subtropical storm Leslie -> TS Leslie -> Hurricane Leslie

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Leslie_(2018)

2nd edit - Harvey 2005 is another.  2005 was also a year for some very north easterly formed storms like Vince.

Edited by swebby
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think it will remain Rene, that's what happened with Harvey in 2017 if I recall.

The amount of tropical systems in the Atlantic right now is remarkable. No classic Cape Verde storms developing huge ACE totals, just a constant supply of tropical systems.

Paulette looks as though it will weaken now. I think Teddy may become a major. 98l is also worth keeping an eye on.

Paulette, Teddy and 98L are fairly typical Cape Verde Hurricanes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Paulette is now racing north east and beginning it’s extra-tropical transition, it is currently at 105mph, 965mb.

Vicky is a 50mph Tropical Storm forecast to weaken and die.

Teddy has a thread given its like strength and track.

98L is now at 70% and has very good prospects.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

I know a lively season was forecast, but how often do you see seven storms being tracked?

They're going to run out of names soon!

Edit: knew something was in place of that happened - they turn to the Greek alphabet. Which has only happened once before, in 2005, which was the Katrina year:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/climate/hurricane-names-2020.html

1C49DA69-E58F-4339-9E9A-AE6274AF5188.jpeg

Edited by lottiekent
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Paulette, Teddy and 98L are fairly typical Cape Verde Hurricanes.

They aren't big ACE generators though, like the big Cape Verde storms such as Irma 2017, Isabel 2003 etc. This year has seen a very high number of storms but ACE is at only 64 units so far and the seasonal average is around 100. Irma in 2017 alone generated more units than this as many storms this season have been weak and short lived. Teddy and 98l may become majors however.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
17 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

They aren't big ACE generators though, like the big Cape Verde storms such as Irma 2017, Isabel 2003 etc. This year has seen a very high number of storms but ACE is at only 64 units so far and the seasonal average is around 100. Irma in 2017 alone generated more units than this as many storms this season have been weak and short lived. Teddy and 98l may become majors however.

You’ve selected two category 5’s, that’s highly abnormal statistically.

This season may not be a 04/05/17 stonker in terms of major ACE contributors but is doing just fine and we are likely have an above average hurricane/major hurricane total and likely ACE total. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

You’ve selected two category 5’s, that’s highly abnormal statistically.

This season may not be a 04/05/17 stonker in terms of major ACE contributors but is doing just fine and we are likely have an above average hurricane/major hurricane total and likely ACE total. 

Looking at previous seasons with high ACE, you get years with many storms but often tending to be weaker or years with less storms but with big ACE contributors. 2020 has definitely been the former so far.

It's fairly common nowadays to get at least one cat 4 or cat 5 storm recurving to the western North Atlantic each season after progressing westwards from Cape Verde. The strongest we have had so far is Paulette for the moment.

Agree that we will have an above average ACE total overall, just also notable for the number of weak storms too.

Of course the exception to this has been the Gulf of Mexico with Laura, which doesn't bode well for October when the focus turns to storm formation here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
9 hours ago, lottiekent said:

I know a lively season was forecast, but how often do you see seven storms being tracked?

They're going to run out of names soon!

Edit: knew something was in place of that happened - they turn to the Greek alphabet. Which has only happened once before, in 2005, which was the Katrina year:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/climate/hurricane-names-2020.html

1C49DA69-E58F-4339-9E9A-AE6274AF5188.jpeg

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10470-one-name-left-on-the-atlantic-hurricane-list-then-what

It's very busy, Teddy is now a hurricane

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

image.thumb.png.c4a0d8db0ca1790beaa9aa844ac2bcfd.png  Current records for earliest storm letter date vs previous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Worth saying they’ve skipped Q and U and will skip X, Y, Z I think so we might have to factor that in technically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
57 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Worth saying they’ve skipped Q and U and will skip X, Y, Z I think so we might have to factor that in technically.

Dont know what they'll do if we have a major Greek alphabet named storm that needs retiring.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Worth saying they’ve skipped Q and U and will skip X, Y, Z I think so we might have to factor that in technically.

wonder why, they could easily use the names Queenie, Ursula, Xander, Yasmine and Zelda..... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Isn't a Chart like this supposed to be the opening shot in some Hollywood "Global Climate Catastrophe" Sci Fi Movie from the mid 1990's?........

image.thumb.png.0f10eadb92f2c218c2ed99ce8cd14cb7.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

EDIT: Oh ,and let's not forget the one in the Med. of course........

Edited by Gray-Wolf
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Paulette was declared extra-tropical yesterday, peak intensity was 105mph.

Sally made landfall yesterday and the last advisory has been issued, peak intensity was 100mph. 

Vicky is still a weak Tropical Storm but devoid of most convection and weakening, peaked at 50mph. 

Teddy has a thread, peak intensity yesterday was 100mph so far.

98L is now at 60% and the long term outlook has deteriorated. It has a ~72 hour window before it picks up shear from Teddy. 

90L off the Mexico coast is now at 90mph and forecast to move slowly north east before a potential turn to the west. Conditions look excellent upwelling aside for strengthening. SHIPS has high RI potential (57% chance of ~80KT hurricane in 72 hours is 11 times the mean).

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

And we have TS Wilfred , subTropicalStorm Alpha (landfall Portugal) and TS Beta today 

sept18betaNHC.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

Looking a tad stormy at Galveston, Texas (North of where Beta's coming ashore).

Meanwhile, further South closer to the centre some minor flooding is occurring from the surge ( 28°46'21.80"N,  95°36'55.07"W).

 

Edited by Ryukai
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Teddy, Beta and Paulette are now all post-tropical. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As we probably have a quiet week before October and post-season activity i thought i would compare the 23/8/2 current status and 105 ACE with my prediction for 111-170 ACE, 17-19 Named Storms, 6-8 Hurricanes, 2-4 Major Hurricanes.

Essentially if we allow for October action in the Caribbean as is likely then i'm probably looking good for ACE and major hurricanes but underestimated the number of storms and hurricanes. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...