Hurricane season 2020

[Ryukai]

Water Vapor Sat image of 17L Tropical Storm Paulette (Left) and 18L Tropical Storm Rene (Right) along with a 'Jupiter Red Spot look alike' swirl above.  Looks like both of them may end up as Fish Storms, but who knows, maybe the Fujiwara Effect will kick in as they get closer and send them on a different course.  You can also see the 3rd area at 30N 58W that they are keeping an eye on, if one forms there we'll get an Orion's Belt of Storms 

Edited September 7, 2020 by Ryukai

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

[Had Worse]

 Looks to be a circulation (circled red) 

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by Had Worse

[Thunder Snow]

Oh so alot more storms on the way  

[Derecho]

Looks like Rene will recurve northwards so can't see it developing that much, unless we get another Lorenzo or Ophelia.

[summer blizzard]

Paulette is being sheared at the moment but if it survives shear will drop in a few days. It’s also forecast to become divergent even if the atmosphere looks quite dry. Euro makes it a hurricane.

Rene is weak at the moment but until day 3 the environment is not bad. After that it probably dies and the Euro does indeed kill it.

The wave coming off Africa is at 80%.

[Ryukai]

24 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Paulette is being sheared at the moment but if it survives shear will drop in a few days. It’s also forecast to become divergent even if the atmosphere looks quite dry. Euro makes it a hurricane.

Rene is weak at the moment but until day 3 the environment is not bad. After that it probably dies and the Euro does indeed kill it.

The wave coming off Africa is at 80%.

FI is also showing Paulette's remains making a beeline for the Bay of Bisque for Sun 20th/Mon 21st.  Might be worth just keeping a squinty side-eye on for that.  (Also could be some good wave's on Coastal Webcams  Surfs up dude  )

[Ryukai]

On 04/09/2020 at 18:54, matty40s said:

It's a composite of the models.....

More Screaming???? 

[karyo]

A tropical low has formed over the Bahamas. It is moving slowly westwards and it is expected to become a depression by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. 

The NHC is giving it 80% chance of development.

[matty40s]

....choo choo...

[karyo]

19 hours ago, karyo said:

A tropical low has formed over the Bahamas. It is moving slowly westwards and it is expected to become a depression by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. 

The NHC is giving it 80% chance of development.

And now a tropical depression. The NHC is expecting it to become a hurricane next week as it nears the Louisiana coast.

[summer blizzard]

I'll open a thread for TD19 tonight or tomorrow if nobody else has but essentially.

TD19 is now offshore with about 72 hours until landfall and probably gets a name tonight. Models currently forecast a cat 1-2 at landfall. 

Rene will have a fight with shear in a few days as it moves slowly west meandering but is forecast to move into a very dry environment even with low shear so it may suprise but it probably dies. 

Paullete has a decent chance of becoming a major hurricane and will recurve somewhere near Bermuda. It is currently causing headaches for our models. 

95L is at 90% and looks to have a closed circulation so could be declared tonight. It should be in a good environment for the next four days however beyond day 4 it may struggle more with shear and dry air. Most models have it re-curving so expect more model issues for us. 

97L is at 60% but gets some pretty strong shear from 95L ahead of it so the environment is not all that conducive until day 5 (and even then quite dry) so anybody hoping for something more entertaining than a strong fish next weekend should probably watch this one as it may stay south.  

[summer blizzard]

TD19 became Sally, a thread exists.

Rene will soon die, waste of time discussing it.

Paulette is now a hurricane and should become a category 3 somewhere near Bermuda which could score a direct hit.

95L became TD20 and should become a hurricane as it recurves north west of the Antilles. It could become quite strong since it recurves from further south than Paulette and shear stays low. RI potential is high 50% chance of being 95KT in 72 hours).

97L is at 70% but lacks any decent prospects and will likely just waste a name.

[Jo Farrow]

On 12/09/2020 at 08:26, matty40s said:

....choo choo...

The NHC facebook live was interesting yesterday, guy says how different desks taking on each area. Hurricane Paulette Bermuda today "NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE MOVING ONSHORE BERMUDA." NHC

[Calayte]

What an amazing view of Paulette from the Sat images. Very defining eye there!

 

[Jo Farrow]

And we have Tropical Storm Teddy - "This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005." NHC discussion

[summer blizzard]

As alluded to, the entire of Bermuda has been swallowed by Paullete's 40 mile eye. Sustained winds are 90mph, 973mb. Gusts have been recorded to 117mph. 

[Had Worse]

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Wish they'd turn that alarm off.

 

https://www.earthcam.com/world/bermuda/pembroke/?cam=bermuda

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Had Worse

[Ryukai]

1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Wish they'd turn that alarm off.

 

https://www.earthcam.com/world/bermuda/pembroke/?cam=bermuda

 

Here's another one http://www.awesomeviewbermuda.com/

[swebby]

Just sticking this astonishing GOES snapshot from the NOAA in here.

If there were anymore in the Atlantic we'd have to start to dob them in for breaking "the rule of six"!

 

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, Ryukai said:

Here's another one http://www.awesomeviewbermuda.com/

My virus software was very unhappy with that link ESET NOD

[Jo Farrow]

And now TS Vicky, 

[summer blizzard]

As suspected it will be a name waster that will die on Thursday as it gets sheared and picked up. 

To think, people elsewhere were whining that peak season would be rubbish because of all the weak systems we've had. 

[Ryukai]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

As suspected it will be a name waster that will die on Thursday as it gets sheared and picked up. 

To think, people elsewhere were whining that peak season would be rubbish because of all the weak systems we've had. 

Unfortunately, there's bound to still be people whining that it's rubbish, because they aren't all hitting land... 

[swebby]

Just how often does this happen exactly?

 

 

Quote

3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

I can think of one or two tropical storms/depressions that have meandered about the Azores, headed north, become ex-tropical and then head back south and become tropical again.  I think last year there was also a depression that headed off Novia Scotia and took a southerly enough track to become a very short lived TS.  But formation off the coast of Portugal?