Hurricane season 2020

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Derecho]

Moving across to the Indian Ocean and a worrying disturbance has formed over the Bay of Bengal. With SSTs much above the average at 31C and low wind shear I fear this will be a bad one. The hot SSTs also extend at depth so there will be a huge amount of energy to help this disturbance quickly intensify.

Fingers crossed it gets caught up in some dry air but cyclones in this region during May are often strong.

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

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[karyo]

The 12z ICON has a hurricane developing in the GOM this week and making landfall in the Louisiana/Texas border.

The NCC give a 50% chance of development in the Bay of Campeche in the coming days from the remnants of tropical storm Amanda which is over Guatemala right now. It is an interesting scenario seeing a Pacific storm reforming as a GOM storm.

[karyo]

The UKMO and GFS also agree with a tropical storm in the same location.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[mountain shadow]

Given 2020 so far, it will likely be Cat 5 at landfall.

[Zak M]

Not too sure if I am in the right thread to ask this question, but there was a +AMO in 1925, a -AMO in 1960 and from 1995 to now it is in its positive phase.

Is there any evidence that any hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic were more frequent/intense when there was a +AMO?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Snipper]

This seems a good idea.  What would we do if there was no Trump?

Trump’s plans to use nuclear weapons on hurricanes challenged in new Democratic bill

APPLE.NEWS

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In August, Donald Trump reportedly asked top national security officials to consider using nuclear bombs to weaken or destroy hurricanes. Now, one member of Congress wants to make it illegal for Mr Trump, or...

 

[philglossop]

Nuke the deep South..the highly Republican voting area.

Sounds even more stupid when you look at it that way.

Anyway.. how long till the next invest I wonder? 

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Nuke the deep South..the highly Republican voting area.

Sounds even more stupid when you look at it that way.

Anyway.. how long till the next invest I wonder? 

Things are looking quiet for the next week or so.

[BrickFielder]

On 03/06/2020 at 17:21, Zak M said:

Not too sure if I am in the right thread to ask this question, but there was a +AMO in 1925, a -AMO in 1960 and from 1995 to now it is in its positive phase.

Is there any evidence that any hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic were more frequent/intense when there was a +AMO?

Interesting question.

It has been suggested that during warm phases of the AMO that tropical storms are more likely to develop into mature hurricanes.However the correlation between AMO and a particular hurricane season is pretty weak and the frequency of storms is largely unaffected.I think during 1971 to 1994 (25 years of AMO cool phase) there were only 36 major hurricanes compared to 1945 to 1970 when there were about 67. It has been suggested that we might just be entering another AMO cool phase, although any affects will be muted by climate change. When we look at hurricane landfalls then there is a marked increase in the warm phase and a shift to the east coast during the cool phase.

Personally I believe the AMO is a reflection of the default position of the Bermuda Azores High Pressure. During a warm phase it is closer to Bermuda and is more south west in the Atlantic pushing tropical storms into the gulf of Mexico. During the warm phase high pressure is more North east towards the Azores resulting in tropical storms curving northwards out to sea.

 

The jury is out on what exactly causes the AMO or even if it really exists. The theory which seems to ring most true with me is that cloud fractions and dust formation across northern Africa changes. This possibly being driven by Indian Ocean changes which link back to North Pacfic ocean changes. There has been modelling which shows that the PDO leads the AMO by 1 year and when the AMO leads the PDO by 11–12 years. This seesaw motion being reflected in the location of deep water formation at polar ice edges. This is all complicated by whether the AMO cycle actual is 25 years the same as the PDO or 60 - 80 years as most literature suggests.Perhaps the cycle is disrupted by volcanic aerosols (major volcano eruptions) as some have suggested or CFC emissions. It could also be linked to the Wolf-Gleissberg cycle Solar cycle with a 5 year lag (This is very contentious but supported by a least one paper -Knudsen, M. F. et al.)

There seem to be some indications that the effects of the AMO may not behave quite as previous ones have done with some marked implications for North America and Europe. Warmer seas in the Mediterranean and around the northern coast of Africa affect the eastern extent of the Azores. We might also see a weaker gulf stream with a propensity to turn east out into the Atlantic slightly further south along the American east coast leading to a more marked boundary between warmer and cooler waters. This all complicated by droughts and dust as weather patterns change due to the pattern change, which affects inbound short wave radiation and outbound long wave radiation and possibly global temperatures (Although climate change alters this).

There are all sorts of conflicting ideas surrounding the AMO. This means I cannot guarantee any of the information here and perhaps somebody with more knowledge will correct a few misconceptions I have. Hopefully yourself and others will explore further and provide more concrete analysis. I hope this gives a starting point as I don't think there is a clear answer.

[summer blizzard]

May AMO actually dropped back a little, only the most positive since 2017 now.

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