Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Every forecast I have seen so far goes for an above average hurricane season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you remember 'Hector' the palm tree that got a direct hit from Irma back in 2017, I'm sure it will be looking forward to a season as good (or bad from a victims point of view) as that year.

Truth said though, with COVID 19 doing the rounds, severe weather disasters would certainly be an unthinkably bad outcome. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this year will be studied extensively to see how much a reduction in pollution etc impacts hurricane formation.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Lauren said:

I think this year will be studied extensively to see how much a reduction in pollution etc impacts hurricane formation.

seeing as folk are talking about a 75% chance of seeing a global record warm year there may be plenty of energy waiting in the oceans/atmosphere?

The move toward rapid forming ,high cat number, extreme stalled rainfall totals it may be quite a horrid year for those around the Atlantic basin?

Again I'll be keeping an eye of early recurve Cape Verde's and how close to the Med. they get before weakening. IIRC 05' saw 3 such beasts and this season promises to be as active as that year and, to me, the more that form early the more chance of the early recure occurring (IMHO)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Suspect that the JJA period could be a little slow but that the SON period could be above average.

As seen during April we can still get a fair MJO wave inducing convection over the Pacific and until we get rid of the surface warmth (though sub-surface cold is fairly hefty) we might see a sluggish atmospheric connection before we go neutral-negative/weak Nina.

-QBO and solar activity should be supportive.

My main concern would be the potential -PDO signal which according to come evidence contributed to those seasons we got a lot of low quality storms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I definitely think this Atlantic Hurricane season is looking like a bad one. Tropical Atlantic SSTs are very warm and there is a very strong correlation with Accumulated Cyclone Energy when taking out the ENSO influence. Provided there is no El Nino this year I think a hyperactive hurricane season is looming. I think it could be up there with the worst. Only other potential hinderance is Saharan dust.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CFSv2 is keen to get rid of the residual positive enso values very fast and turning negative for the start of summer. It looks a bit too fast as current values are at about +0.6 but it shows the direction of travel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, a  clear downward trend in the SSTs lately. Makes me think that the cfsv2 has the right idea about this summer. Very interesting to say the least! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was an early start to the season last year when a tropical storm (was it Andrea?) formed in May in the Atlantic. However after that it went quiet until late summer. It will be interesting to see if this season manages to have more activity in the early summer than last year, given the favourable enso conditions and the warmer SSTs in the Atlantic and GOM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, karyo said:

There was an early start to the season last year when a tropical storm (was it Andrea?) formed in May in the Atlantic. However after that it went quiet until late summer. It will be interesting to see if this season manages to have more activity in the early summer than last year, given the favourable enso conditions and the warmer SSTs in the Atlantic and GOM.

The above Orange area is now red on the latest update with 70% chance of development in the next 5 days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you define "fish-spinner" in relation to tropical storms?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Can you define "fish-spinner" in relation to tropical storms?

It's a storm which doesn't affect land. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AderynCoch said:

It's a storm which doesn't affect land. 

inferring that it is well out at sea and not going to bother anyone, probably for most of it's life or just at this time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The former. Of course the forecast can change and a system previously thought to be staying well away from land can sometimes end up approaching.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Heatwave conditions possible to end May

    Some parts of the UK could qualify for heatwave conditions during the final days of May. With temperatures widely into the 20s Celsius. Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Dry, sunny and warm end to May but is there a pattern change on the horizon?

    The already very dry May will end with more dry, sunny and warm weather across all of the UK. This theme continues into the first few days of June, but there could be a change on the way later next week. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...