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Just sticking this astonishing GOES snapshot from the NOAA in here. If there were anymore in the Atlantic we'd have to start to dob them in for breaking "the rule of six"!  

Moving across to the Indian Ocean and a worrying disturbance has formed over the Bay of Bengal. With SSTs much above the average at 31C and low wind shear I fear this will be a bad one. The hot SSTs a

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If you remember 'Hector' the palm tree that got a direct hit from Irma back in 2017, I'm sure it will be looking forward to a season as good (or bad from a victims point of view) as that year.

Truth said though, with COVID 19 doing the rounds, severe weather disasters would certainly be an unthinkably bad outcome. 

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I think this year will be studied extensively to see how much a reduction in pollution etc impacts hurricane formation.

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4 hours ago, Lauren said:

I think this year will be studied extensively to see how much a reduction in pollution etc impacts hurricane formation.

seeing as folk are talking about a 75% chance of seeing a global record warm year there may be plenty of energy waiting in the oceans/atmosphere?

The move toward rapid forming ,high cat number, extreme stalled rainfall totals it may be quite a horrid year for those around the Atlantic basin?

Again I'll be keeping an eye of early recurve Cape Verde's and how close to the Med. they get before weakening. IIRC 05' saw 3 such beasts and this season promises to be as active as that year and, to me, the more that form early the more chance of the early recure occurring (IMHO)

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Suspect that the JJA period could be a little slow but that the SON period could be above average.

As seen during April we can still get a fair MJO wave inducing convection over the Pacific and until we get rid of the surface warmth (though sub-surface cold is fairly hefty) we might see a sluggish atmospheric connection before we go neutral-negative/weak Nina.

-QBO and solar activity should be supportive.

My main concern would be the potential -PDO signal which according to come evidence contributed to those seasons we got a lot of low quality storms.

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I definitely think this Atlantic Hurricane season is looking like a bad one. Tropical Atlantic SSTs are very warm and there is a very strong correlation with Accumulated Cyclone Energy when taking out the ENSO influence. Provided there is no El Nino this year I think a hyperactive hurricane season is looming. I think it could be up there with the worst. Only other potential hinderance is Saharan dust.

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The CFSv2 is keen to get rid of the residual positive enso values very fast and turning negative for the start of summer. It looks a bit too fast as current values are at about +0.6 but it shows the direction of travel.

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Yes, a  clear downward trend in the SSTs lately. Makes me think that the cfsv2 has the right idea about this summer. Very interesting to say the least! 

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There was an early start to the season last year when a tropical storm (was it Andrea?) formed in May in the Atlantic. However after that it went quiet until late summer. It will be interesting to see if this season manages to have more activity in the early summer than last year, given the favourable enso conditions and the warmer SSTs in the Atlantic and GOM.

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4 hours ago, karyo said:

There was an early start to the season last year when a tropical storm (was it Andrea?) formed in May in the Atlantic. However after that it went quiet until late summer. It will be interesting to see if this season manages to have more activity in the early summer than last year, given the favourable enso conditions and the warmer SSTs in the Atlantic and GOM.

The above Orange area is now red on the latest update with 70% chance of development in the next 5 days.

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5 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Can you define "fish-spinner" in relation to tropical storms?

It's a storm which doesn't affect land. 

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1 minute ago, AderynCoch said:

It's a storm which doesn't affect land. 

inferring that it is well out at sea and not going to bother anyone, probably for most of it's life or just at this time?

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The former. Of course the forecast can change and a system previously thought to be staying well away from land can sometimes end up approaching.

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