May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 7th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.4c to the 4th, 5th & 6th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[feb1991blizzard]

Still confident my 13.2 won't be far off - sounds crazy given upcoming cold spell but confident of some heat last week.

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you maybe not - The ECM 240 is a stonker!

[damianslaw]

Next week looks increasingly like being a cool week overall, temps only slowly climbing the cold air source taking its time to ebb away. It could be fairly cloudy though which will prevent any notably cold nights, conversely this will suppress daytime maxima. By mid month i.e. 16th I expect we will be about 10.5 degrees tops, near average. Second half of the month - not clear how things may pan out at all. We keep seeing marked changes in the 6-7 day timescale from the models at the moment, so best not looking too far ahead.

 

[snowray]

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mind you maybe not - The ECM 240 is a stonker!

A stonker if it was for 18th January or 18th February for sure. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

A stonker if it was for 18th January or 18th February for sure. 

It would be a stonker for stopping this nonsense going on in Middlesbrough at the moment with a raw NE flow.

[snowray]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It would be a stonker for stopping this nonsense going on in Middlesbrough at the moment with a raw NE flow.

Are you referring to the big street party?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, snowray said:

Are you referring to the big street party?

Yes

[Derecho]

Looks like the CET anomaly will take a bit of a beating after Saturday if the 12z ECM is to be believed. Looks like I have guessed too high for this month.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[DAVID SNOW]

26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks like the CET anomaly will take a bit of a beating after Saturday if the 12z ECM is to be believed. Looks like I have guessed too high for this month.

Hold the line Q! Hold the line,

[feb1991blizzard]

36 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks like the CET anomaly will take a bit of a beating after Saturday if the 12z ECM is to be believed. Looks like I have guessed too high for this month.

Hmmm - I still think you're well in the hunt, don't forget the last week of may 25, even 27c is possible, wouldn't need many days of that to even bring me back into it.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hmmm - I still think you're well in the hunt, don't forget the last week of may 25, even 27c is possible, wouldn't need many days of that to even bring me back into it.

I think at this stage, many of us are still in the hunt, with the models chopping and changing!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.9C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall stalled at 0.6mm 15 of the monthly total.

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 8th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.4c to the 8th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[snowray]

Up we go...could we achieve a 12c I wonder before the colder weather arrives? We have 20-22c widely already at 11am today.

Edited May 9, 2020 by snowray

[SLEETY]

Wonder if the ecm will show that really cold blocked scenario again from a day ago.

 

21 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mind you maybe not - The ECM 240 is a stonker!

Wonder if the ecm will show that really cold blocked scenario again from a day ago.

 

The forum would be going into meltdown if this was winter,but you can still get decent snow in May in the Highlands,look at the dramatic change about to happen in the next 12 hours.Think we will get repeated attacks  from the North then a more prolonged cold weather spellfrom the NE ,not unusual for May

[Roger J Smith]

Record high for today (9th) is 17.6 shared by 1945 and 2016. Record lows for 10th and 11th are both 4.1 (1879 and 1773). In our times, the lowest values are 6.2 (for the 11th that was in 2010). 

Will be interesting to see how close we come to a shift from near the record warmth to the record cold. My guess is today's value comes in around 16 C and tomorrow closer to 9 C, Monday 7 C. 

Another record under some threat is the largest drop in CET from day to day in the month of May. That currently stands at 9.1 and it happened with the record low I just mentioned for the 11th in 1773 (had been 13.2 on the 10th). The largest drop in any month was 9.9 in November (25th 1836 was 0.4, after 10.3 on 24th). 

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Wonder if the ecm will show that really cold blocked scenario again from a day ago.

 

Wonder if the ecm will show that really cold blocked scenario again from a day ago.

 

The forum would be going into meltdown if this was winter,but you can still get decent snow in May in the Highlands,look at the dramatic change about to happen in the next 12 hours.Think we will get repeated attacks  from the North then a more prolonged cold weather spellfrom the NE ,not unusual for May

There is no ensemble support for this. In any case snow is very unlikely in May even in the coldest setups. Away from the north of Scotland at least.

Certainly hasn't happened in the last 20 years and I can't actually remember seeing snow at all in May.

I see no positives for anyone in a cool blocked setup in May. It's like me wishing for a really mild November with southerly winds- not as though I can sit outside then!

ECM is actually showing things warming up nicely this evening.

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Scorcher

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

There is no ensemble support for this. In any case snow is very unlikely in May even in the coldest setups. Away from the north of Scotland at least.

Certainly hasn't happened in the last 20 years and I can't actually remember seeing snow at all in May.

I see no positives for anyone in a cool blocked setup in May. It's like me wishing for a really mild November with southerly winds- not as though I can sit outside then!

ECM is actually showing things warming up nicely this evening.

 

Remember some snow on the ground in early May 97. Not quite May, but as recently as 2016 snow was falling and settling on 30 April with a temp of 0 degrees.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Remember some snow on the ground in early May 97. Not quite May, but as recently as 2016 snow was falling and settling on 30 April with a temp of 0 degrees.

Yes I don't remember the snow in 1997. 1996 was cold but no snow of note in my area at least. My memories of Mays as a child are very selective- ie. I remember the warm weather!

It is very rare for snow to fall in major cities in the UK at all. I doubt Manchester had anything in that late April spell of 2016.

[Scorcher]

Interestingly New York had a snowfall this morning- equalling the latest date for recorded snow with 1977.

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

 

. I doubt Manchester had anything in that late April spell of 2016.

It did, remember it well.

April snow in Manchester is the latest in at least a decade - Manchester Evening News

WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK

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Any more showers next week will be record-breaking

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.5C +2.2C above average. Rainfall up to 0.9mm 1.6% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It did, remember it well.

April snow in Manchester is the latest in at least a decade - Manchester Evening News

WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK

---

Any more showers next week will be record-breaking

 

April 26th though, not quite as late as Damien suggested.

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 9th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st