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May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I don't know the procedures as well as some here might, but it seems to me that in every case they use one set of stations to generate the day to day "provisionals" and then a different set to generate the final version. Some months the two sets come in closer together. It stands to reason that in a wet month, there won't be as much variation across a region so any set of stations will give similar values. This is two months on the run now with larger than normal adjustments (corrections probably not the most accurate word to use since both sets are "correct" just the final one is defined to be the official version) and both of these months have been dry.

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Monthly
The temperature was 12.5c in May 2020, seven players got it spot on.

DogToffee, DiagonalRedLine, DR(S)NO, Summer Sun, Stationary Front, mb018538 and J10

image.thumb.png.de66bca7db77026de66a9e1b82d8713a.png

Seasonal
A new top 3.
Dancerwithwings won with J10 in 2nd and Godber 1 in 3rd.

image.thumb.png.a5f7f3941f98c1680fd304ca25e53cb1.png

Overall

A few changes in the Top 3

Dancerwithwings stays in 1st,
mb018538 is 2nd (from 3rd)
Stationary Front is 3rd (from 4th)

image.thumb.png.8a3065ba16e9de184bbca261427f25e5.png

Excel -> May 20 CET.xlsx

PDF -> May 20 CET.pdf

 

 

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A finish the same as 2016, but felt much better than 2016 overall. It has been the minima that has pegged it down somewhat, conversely in 2016 we had much higher minima, same happened in 2017. 2020 more akin to 2018 in this respect which produced larger dirurnal temps.

CET mean temps often tell you little of a month, 2 week cold spells can be cancelled out by 2 week mild spells to produce near average months, high pressure months in spring can produce large diurnal ranges, low mins and high maximas cancelling each other out.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The EWP has finished on 10 mm, if confirmed below 12 mm will be the second driest June after 1844 (7.9 mm). Will post the official final number as we see it on the 5th. Can confirm then this is the scoring for June and the contest year to date (copy of posts made middle of the month when it already appeared likely to be drier than any of our forecasts) ... 

Top scores for May 2020

The PIT _____ 30 mm ______ 10.0

I Rem Atl252 _ 31 mm _______ 9.8

Earthshine ___ 32 mm _______ 9.6

Feb91Blizzard_ 41.2 mm _____ 9.4

Polar Gael ___ 45 mm _______ 9.2

Reef ________ 46 mm _______9.0

weather-history _ 47 mm _____ 8.8

Let It snow! ____ 47 mm _____ 8.7

JeffC _________ 48 mm _____ 8.4

virtualsphere ___ 48  mm _____8.3

Anyone else wondering what they scored, the table of entries back on page 4 can be used, just count how many forecasts were drier than yours (not including any others who shared your forecast) to establish your rank which is then one higher than that number ... subtract that from 51, multiply by 0.2, this gives the highest score available in your prediction group if you chose the same value as others. Subtract a further 0.1 for each position after the first person in at that amount. And subtract 0.2 for every day late as indicated. That calculation would give you a score. Here's a hypothetical example. You see 27 forecasts drier than your own, and you are third out of three at your forecast level, and you were one day late. Your score is then ((51-28) * 0.2) - 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.2 or 4.6-0.4 = 4.2.

 

EWP CONTEST ANNUAL SCORING UPDATE 

This table includes everyone who participated in May plus a few higher ranked non-participants who have an asterisk or other symbol(s) beside their annual update (same score as after April). That does not apply to daniel* who has the asterisk in his username (and has played all six months). 

RANK __ prev ___ FORECASTER ___ Points _________ RANK __ prev ___ FORECASTER ____ Points

01 _____ 01 ____ Reef _____________48.75 __________ 31 _____ 16 ____ Relativistic _______ 28.65

02 _____ 02 ____ Emmett Garland ___ 47.15 ___________32 ____ 13 ____ Robbie Garrett _____28.74*

03 _____ 03 ____ Twilight __________  41.88 __________ 33 ____ 24 ____ Dog Toffee ________ 28.62

04 _____ 04 ____ Godber1 __________41.57 __________ 34 ____ 33 ____ daniel* ___________ 27.96

05 _____ 05 ____ Mulzy ____________40.37 ___________35 ____ 41 ____DiagonalRedLine ___27.27

06 _____ 06 ____ mb018538 ________37.04 ___________ 36 ____ 36 ____ February1978 _____ 27.00

07 _____ 08 ____ Don _____________ 35.74 ___________ 37 ____ 26 ____ Weather26 _______ 26.80

08 _____T11____ General Cluster____ 35.63 ____________38 ____ 27 ____ Roger J Smith _____26.31

09 _____ 22 ____ virtualsphere ______ 34.84 ____________39 ____ 49 ____ weather-history ____26.23

10 _____ 18 ____ snowray __________34.15 ____________40 ____ 24 ____ Kentspur _________25.65*

11 _____ 30 ____ DAVID SNOW _____ 33.53 ____________41 ____ 53 ____ I Rem Atl 252 _____ 25.58

12 _____ 07 ____ Thundery Wintry Sh _33.25* ___________42 ____ 39 ____ CheesepuffScott ___ 24.80 

13 _____ 32 ____ Jeff C ____________33.22____________ 43 ____ 57 ____ Polar Gael ________ 21.86

14 _____ 37 ____ The PIT __________ 32.37 ____________44 ____ 44 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather __ 21.47

15 _____ 19 ____ brmbrmcar ________32.25 ____________ 45 ____ 47 ____ prolongedSnowLover 21.21

16 _____ 34 ____ seaside60 ________ 32.06 ____________ 46 ____ 38 ____ syed2878 ________ 21.08*

17 _____ 09 ____ Timmytour ________31.81 ____________ 47 ____ 52 ____ Norrance _________ 20.92

18 _____ 31 ____ SteveB ___________31.50 ____________ 48 ____ 43 ____ stargazer _________ 20.49

19 _____ 20 ____ J10 ______________31.41 ____________ 49 ____ 54 ____ NeilN ____________19.91

20 _____ 38 ____ Midlands Ice Age ___31.30_____________50 ____ 42 ____ Radiating Dendrite __19.83*^

21 _____ 15 ____ Stationary Front ____31.15 ____________ 51 ____ 61 ____ Let It Snow! _______ 19.02

22 _____T11____ Bobd29 __________ 31.03 ____________ 52 ____ 45 ____ Mr TOAD _________18.99**

23 _____ 21 ____ davehsug ________ 30.67 _____________53 ____ 46 ____ shillitocettwo _______18.80

24 _____ 14 ____ DR(S)NO ________ 30.49 _____________54 ____ 48 ____ freeze ____________17.75*

25 _____ 17 ____ Blast from the Past_ 30.22 ____________ 55 ____ 51 ____ B87 ______________16.92

26 _____ 25 ____ Mr Maunder ______ 30.00_____________56 ____ 49 ____ pinball wizard ______16.74**

27 _____ 35 ____ Born from the Void _ 29.98____________ 59 ____ 118 ____Earthshine ________11.50^

28 _____ 10 ____ jonboy __________ 29.78* ____________63 ____ 109 ___ summer blizzard ____10.40^

29 _____ 40 ____ Feb1991Blizzard __29.68_____________ 65 ____ 109 ___ coldest winter ______10.19**

30 _____ 23 ____ SLEETY _________28.89 ____________114 ____ 131 ___ Leo97t ____________ 2.44^

________________________________________________ 130 ____ 129 ___ Lettucing Gutted ____  0.51

_____________________________________________________________________________________

* from four or five contest entries and did not enter May (some others did enter May and have 4, 5 entries)

** from three contest entries (Mr TOAD, pinball wizard did not enter May, coldest winter did enter May)

^ from two contest entries and entered May ( *^ Rad D had two and did not enter May)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The top two combined forecasts include two of our top three EWP forecasters who were each 0.1 off for the CET, namely the PIT (13th CET and 1st EWP) and Earthshine (9th CET and 3rd EWP). There were so many entries within 0.1 of the final CET that these two don't rank particularly high all time (by total ranks added) although it's rare to be that close to the correct CET and score high for EWP. 

Will post a link to the contest scoring excel file next month, maybe Netweather can look into the reasons why the software here makes excel file attachments so difficult to open (somehow they get confused for PDF files and vice versa). 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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